Over or Under 2.5 Goals Betting

When it comes to football betting at bookmakers like Betfair and Paddy Power, it is common to wager on who you think will win a given match. But another popular way to bet on football matches is by betting on the amount of goals that will be scored through total goals betting. An often-seen format for football totals betting is the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. This guide to over/under 2.5 goals betting will shine a light on some strategies for betting this market along with what makes it as common as it is. You can find over/under 2.5 goals suggested bets from Infogol.


Why over/under 2.5 goals?

The over/under 2.5 goals market is the result of statistical averages across the game of football. Generally speaking, average goal totals per match fall somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2.5 goals. Of course, since a football match cannot end with a fractional number of goals, this means that a large number of matches end with either two or three goals scored. Therefore, bettors are confronted with the choice of betting on whether there will be two or fewer goals scored, or three or more goals.

As a result of most matches falling within the statistical averages for goals in a match, the over/under 2.5 goals market is usually close to evens in terms of the odds for both the over and under options. Due to those odds, backing the over or under can often be more profitable than backing the favourite to win a given match. This is yet another reason why betting on football match totals is as popular as it is. Betfair and Paddy Power have multiple total goals bets.


Things to consider when betting over/under 2.5 goals

Just like with any wagering, there are plenty of aspects to consider when placing an over/under 2.5 goals bet. Keeping these in mind can help maximise your chances to turn a totals wager into a payout.

Team Statistics

Among the most important things to keep in mind when placing an over/under 2.5 goals bet is how each team performs on both offence and defence. It is, of course, easier to win a bet on the overs by backing a team that scores goals frequently. Even better is a match where both teams boast high-powered attacks. Scouting out these matches and taking advantages of favourable conditions to place a wager on the over is a smart strategy. The same can be said for identifying matches where the teams involved are not as gifted on offence. As long as you take the time to identify these strengths and weaknesses, you are at an advantage. It’s also worth considering using Expected Goals (xG), which measures the quality of chances that a team has conceded in previous matches. You can get free Expected Goal tips for all football matches in the major European leagues with Infogol.

In the 2017/18 Premier League Season, just 13 of Brighton’s 38 games resulted in over 2.5 goals being scored

Conversely, knowing how teams play on defence is crucial. A match can feature the two best offences in the world, but if they are going up against great defences they may have trouble scoring nonetheless. On the flip side, two lesser offences may outperform their regular outputs if they are taking on teams that are not sturdy at the back.


Recent form

Perhaps more important than overall statistics is the overall form for each of the teams involved in matches where bettors are wagering on the total number of goals scored. While season-long stats can reveal what a team has done over the course of an entire campaign, evaluating a team's recent form is instrumental in finding out how a team has been playing over a more relevant sample of games. Using Expected Goals (xG) gives you a clearer indication of a team’s recent form as it measures the quality of chances that a team has conceded or created in previous matches. You can get free Expected Goal tips for all football matches in the major European leagues with Infogol.

Form can improve or decline based on a number of factors. One such factor is injuries across the squads in question. While full-season data would show a team's performance with and without injury concerns, recent match evaluations would give insight into how a team is coping with missing a key player. Constant reading of injury lists and watching recent matches are great steps to take to improve a bettor's chances of winning their totals wagers.

Again, these numbers are worth evaluating on both offence and defence. Even when it comes to injuries, missing a rock of a centreback can be just as important as losing a striker when it comes to the outcome of an over/under 2.5 goals wager.


Fixture lists

Especially true at the highest levels of the sport, keeping a team's schedule in mind when placing an over/under 2.5 goals wager is a great move. As is the case every year, football clubs can see a number of competitions create a difficult fixture list. As a result, those clubs can change their strategies to give themselves the best chances to win the competitions that matter most to them at the time.

For example, a team that is competing for their domestic league title may also be playing in a continental competition like the Champions League while they play in domestic cup competitions as well. To balance all of those needs, the club may opt to call up less commonly used players for some of their matches to keep their most important players fresh for the matches that matter most.

Making sure to check the lineups for every match before wagering on the total number of goals at bookmakers like Betfair and Paddy Power is a great idea as a general rule. A reserve player getting a start up front or in another vital position on the pitch can greatly increase the chances of a total going over or under depending on where the changes are made.

With a little research on how a team is performing on both ends of the pitch, as well as what their line-ups will look like heading into each match, betting on the over/under 2.5 goals market can be a manageable proposition. It is worth noting that every match is different and that the style of a match can vary based on any number of factors. And, even more importantly, the teams involved in these matches need to put the ball in the goal or play proper defence depending on which end of the total you are cheering for.

At the end of the day, the over/under 2.5 goals market can be one of the most exciting in all of football betting. Knowing what you are looking at before each match can only enhance that excitement.