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Royal Ascot Timefigure Preview: Day two

Timing expert Graeme North previews day two of Royal Ascot and highlights his best bet.

The second day of Royal Ascot kicks off with the Queen Mary Stakes over five furlongs which has a surprisingly deep international flavour to it considering it’s a race for juveniles over five furlongs - five have come over from Ireland, four from the States and one from France. Wesley Ward who runs two has won this race four times previously, most famously with Lady Aurelia but more recently in 2020, since then the prize has gone back to the States once again, so the American contingent must be respected.

Irish trainers have won the race twice since 2020 and Aidan O’Brien’s Victorious is top on time by 9lb from Crownbreaker, who was subsequently beaten 10 lengths by another Queen Mary runner Wild Blossom in a slower time at Carlisle. Taking that collateral form line at face value is likely to be misleading but Victorious faces a different test here to the one she has been used to so far as she drops to five furlongs for the first time after two wins at Naas over six. That makes her vulnerable in my book given the highly promising Nottingham winner (in a decent if not outstanding timefigure) Senorita Bonita is also in opposition in a race that has so many unknown variables.

Given that the proportion of truly-run races decreases as race distance increases, timefigures are usually better predictors to the outcomes of sprint races than staying races but the Queen’s Vase might well be an exception given the horse that is top on the clock, Galiyan, scored in a very fast time at Chester’s May meeting, form which has been franked since, and was never stronger than at the finish. This extra two furlongs will very likely suit, but the two who are next best on time, Mr Colonel and Ravenspire, both promise to be suited by longer trips too so for all he’s got plenty going for him, the 5/2 about Galiyan looks a bit short.