Rowleyfile preview: Investec Handicap

The single most important factor in having, or not having, a bet in the Investec Handicap at Epsom (15:00) on Saturday is the number of runners that actually participate.

A total of 16 have been declared, and 16-runner handicaps are like catnip to clued-up each-way punters, for the maths swing very much in their favour.

The way to gauge this is to sum the amount you would have to stake on the win market to guarantee a return of £100 whichever horse won, then to do the same per-place on the place market.

At best early odds, these figures – known as the over-round – come out as 118 on the win market for the Investec Handicap and just 89 per-place on the place market. The each-way over-round is the average of the two, or 103.5.

If you are going to have a bet in the race, seriously consider betting each-way rather than win only. However, if one to four horses are withdrawn – leaving one quarter the odds but only three places on offer – the win and the each-way over-rounds are likely to be similar.

Let us hope that it holds up, but an each-way bet in the face of non-runners is not the end of the world.

What horse to bet, rather than how to bet it, is a whole different matter! These previews focus on, among other things, trends over the previous decade, but the disruption to civilisation as we know it this year has had its consequences for horseracing, too. Some trends cannot be expected to apply still (such as number of runs in current season, and length of absence).

But meaningful trends in age and in weight carried/BHA mark (which are linked and produce near-identical results in this instance) still have validity. I think! This is how they look.

Those are surprisingly good figures for five-year-olds, who have won and placed around twice as often as could be expected by chance (see those impact values) and who have beaten a very healthy 66.2% of their rivals where 50% is par.

An each-way bet on all 24 of those five-year-olds would also have turned a 79% profit on stakes over the years, so the market has not spotted them yet.

Higher weights and BHA marks are better than mid and lower, though not to such a degree, and the each-way return has been +13% in that cohort’s case.

There are, of course, many non-trends factors to consider, not least the likely pace and the effect of the draw. Timeform forecasts the former as “very strong”, with six horses having consolidated Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less (indicating habitual front-runners or pressers), and the latter as “favours high”. Both should count for something, especially the former.

The betting on the race is dominated by Desert Icon, who carries a 6 lb penalty for winning by a wide margin at Newmarket recently. He was a fairly promising horse before that, so very likely showed quite a bit of improvement, but the race was run in a modest time and his four rivals rather fell in a heap late on.

The people who make the odds have chosen to believe that form much more than another wide-margin win in a handicap at Newmarket recently, that of You’re Hired’s, who scooted up by a remarkable 14 lengths but is at double-figured odds at the time of writing despite having been raised only 7 lb.

I was first drawn to one of the quintet of five-year-olds, in Caradoc, who comes from the Ed Walker stable that sends out English King in the big one a bit later, but the bookies have not missed him, either. He and Desert Icon combined are priced at around 6/4: that is short.

Instead, I think it is worth siding with a couple of five-year-olds with reasonable credentials but at much bigger prices, in Johnny Drama and Breath Caught.    

Both have recent reappearances under their belts, with the former possibly failing to stay a mile and a half at Royal Ascot and now equipped with a tongue tie, and the latter a fairly encouraging fourth at Newbury on his first start since switching from David Simcock to Ralph Beckett.

Each has a solid enough chance at the weights, and is effective at the trip and on the going even if it turns softer than the current “good”. Breath Caught tends to race mid-to-rear, and that could prove advantageous given the pace profile of this race. Johnny Drama usually races closer up (2.7 EPF) but I wonder if he will be dropped in this time given a few quirks and an occasional tendency to go freely.

Most importantly, they are at big odds in the circumstances. Epsom is an odd track, to say the least, and you can get some unpredictable outcomes, especially when pace dynamics are out of the ordinary also.

Recommendations:

0.5 pt e/w JOHNNY DRAMA at 14/1

0.5 pt e/w BREATH CAUGHT at 25/1

Also read:

Simon Rowlands: What the sectionals tell us about three fanous Derby results