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Name
Martin Dixon
Current Role?
Racing TV analyst and owner
What piqued your interest in the sport?
A day at Wetherby races as a youngster got me hooked. I’ve always had a punter's mentality and was immediately obsessed by the puzzle every race provided as well as the unique intensity horse racing offers a punter.
It quickly became a routine to dive to the front door as soon as my Dad’s Yorkshire Post dropped in a morning and I’d mark out my ‘selection’ for literally every race of the day before heading to school. The moment I returned I checked Ceefax (page 660 I believe) for the results and live betting shows to see how they’d fared.
In later years that obviously developed into betting on racing regularly, which enhanced the thrill for me like it does for so many people, and that continues to be the case to this day. The current situation with Covid-19 has made me appreciate the sport even more again. At times there’s no doubt it’s hard to switch off from racing in the UK because of the sheer volume of it – and it can feel like a grind at times keeping on top of everything – but ultimately I still absolutely love what I loved 25 years ago; the puzzle, the competition, the drama and the thrill all of that collectively provides.
Give us a successful horse you spotted early on their route to the top?
I saw Crystal Ocean win his maiden at Nottingham on his three-year-old comeback and was immediately struck by him as having potential to go to the top.
There’s a wider point to make here though because, as a general rule, I don’t think it takes a huge amount of skill as a race reader to spot potentially top-class horses at an early stage. That doesn’t mean to say every horse I think has ‘x’ potential goes on to achieve ‘x’ (see below) but the vast majority of pattern winners have a pedigree and background that hints at their potential before they even hit the track, and if a performance early in their career suggests they could live up to that then every analyst worth their salt should spot it. Under both codes a relatively select number of stables have a large percentage of the top horses, and on the Flat in particular the vast majority have high-class pedigrees and/or big price tags that give confidence to bullish initial views of impressive winners or notable eye-catchers.
Go back to Crystal Ocean for a moment; he was a colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute, one of the most formidable trainers of the modern era, by an exceptional young stallion in Sea The Stars and out of a mare whose earlier progeny included Grade 1 winner Hillstar and multiple Group-race winner Crystal Capella. I wouldn’t, and shouldn’t, take any credit for spotting his potential as he sluiced up in a maiden.
Give us a horse you thought was going to reach the top but never quite made it?
I fell hook, line and sinker for Time Test after he won the Tercentenary at Royal Ascot in 2015. I thought it was a Group 1 standard performance that day as he barely came off the bridle and recorded a very fast time to win by over three lengths. I was wrong. He did win three more races but came up short in every Group 1 he tried and simply was six or seven pounds short of the horse I thought he was.
Incidentally, Roger Charlton also trains Time Test’s half-brother, Tempus, who I’d say is very well handicapped for the 2020 season when we eventually get going again.
What factor/factors do you think punters place too much emphasis on?
I think there always has been and probably always will be some element of recency bias in the market, whether that’s last-time-out winners or horses that have blatantly caught the eye on their most recent start. This can be particularly overplayed in lower-grade racing when you’re often dealing with horses that 1) race more frequently and 2) aren’t as straightforward or reliable.
That’s not to say I don’t ever back one that shaped well or won on their most recent start, of course I do, but you have to be very careful not to be too easily drawn in by the ‘eye-catcher’ or ‘easy last-time-out winner’. There’s always a bigger picture and if the reason you’re backing a horse is very obvious to every other punter then you’re less likely to be getting a value price.
What factor/factors do you think is largely overlooked by punters?
I think pedigree research is very important when dealing with youngsters. I don’t back many debutants on the Flat but I’ll constantly have their breeding in mind when watching/analysing any horse in the formative stages of its career. It gives me much more confidence in not only what sort of test (trip/ground/track combinations) is likely to suit an individual but also the potential they have (or don’t have) based on the quality of their breeding.
So much of the market is priced up on what’s already proven and is there in black and white in the formbook that it’s important to try to be one step ahead. I think pedigree work can give you that head-start and put you on to a horse as a bet before it’s exposed itself.
What one piece of advice would you give to someone analysing a horserace?
Be thorough and be creative. There’s no quick fix to analysing a race, and analysis shouldn’t be one-dimensional. Of course you have to consider the fundamentals – pace (time/sectionals), positioning, in-running trouble, draw – and decipher which horses, if any, were advantaged/disadvantaged by these factors on the day, but also watch each horse individually and think about their traits and what might draw out improvement another day. A longer or shorter trip? A different configuration of track? A stronger jockey? Headgear? Dig a bit deeper and think over and above the facts of a result.
What would you change about the sport?
With my owner's hat on I think the prize money is appalling relative to what it costs to keep a horse in training. We race for a fraction of the money in the UK to many other racing jurisdictions despite having huge strength in depth in terms of the quality of horse. It doesn’t stack up, and with the rest of the world catching up quickly, there’s only so long the history and prestige of our racing will keep the biggest owners here.
Give us a trainer you think is underrated?
I part-own horses with Mick Appleby and David O’Meara who are both fantastic, but it’d be pushing it to say they’re underrated, certainly in terms of the betting market. David Menuisier has had plenty of big-race success but doesn’t have a big string and I rate him very highly. He seems to have a very patient approach, with a lot of his horses improving with experience, and he’s done a great job with the likes of Thundering Blue, Dancetaria and Chief Ironside in recent years.
Give us a young jockey you think will reach the top?
George Rooke won the all-weather apprentice title by 10 winners over the winter months and created a big impression. He actually rode for us a few times and, as well as an obvious talent in the saddle, he came across very well pre and post-race, which is important for connections. He’s based with Richard Hughes so I’m sure he’ll keep learning and progressing and ought to get a lot of opportunities when the turf starts up.
Give us a Horse To Follow for when we are all back up and running?
I’ve mentioned Tempus above so he’s one to note. Al Qaqaa is a three-year-old trained by William Haggas that I expect to have a very fruitful season as well. He’s out of a mare that improved a lot as her stamina was drawn out and, though by War Front, his finishing effort was striking on both juvenile starts and he physically looked a big, robust sort that would likely strengthen up and train on well.
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