Q&A: Ben Fearnley

Name Ben Fearnley

Role Timeform racing analyst, Racing TV pundit

What piqued your interest in the sport?

In short – betting. I’d always been interested in trying to make money out of ‘nothing’ – I had an eBay account (in my Mum’s name) during secondary school and was constantly buying and selling stuff. That combined with growing up around 20 miles from Cheltenham meant it was only a matter of time before I got into racing and betting, particularly as my Dad is a life-long fan. He gave me Sizing Europe in the 2010 Arkle, which was probably something like my first winner. That money kept my account ticking over for a few months – until the 2010 World Cup, anyway.

Give us a horse you spotted early on their route to the top

I was in relatively early on Sam Spinner. He just had a really likeable way of racing and nearly all his novice form – including a second to Mount Mews at Kelso – had a very solid look to it. I had a decent bet on him at double figures for the Silver Trophy (win only) and he was very nearly well-handicapped enough to overcome both that and a lot of inexperience. Shamefully I don’t think I had a penny on him at either Haydock or Ascot, but no one can ever take that Chepstow second away from me.

Give us a horse you thought was going to reach the top but never made it

Plenty of people thought Harry Fry’s American was going to be a proper Grade 1 chaser – he was sent off at 5/1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy – and I was certainly one of them. His demolition of Rock The Kasbah and Mustmeetalady at Uttoxeter on Midlands National day left him a perfect three from three over fences at the end of his novice campaign but, unfortunately, that turned out to be the last race he ever won, his fragility ultimately defining his career, which could have been great.

What factor/factors do you think punters place too much emphasis on?

How a horse ran last time out. When I started betting on the Flat I used to get tied in knots by Mark Johnston horses, mainly because I placed too much emphasis on their most recent run. If there’s a good enough reason to forgive a bad run – including if the horse is trained by someone whose runners are naturally prone to being a bit in and out – then the rewards are usually there to be reaped in terms of the odds you’re getting. On the other end of the scale, it’s no bad thing to be attempting to pick holes in a horse that won last time out. Was it favoured by the run of the race in any way? Will it get a similar setup here in terms of pace/ground?

What factor/factors do you think is largely overlooked by punters?

The importance of making the running. If you backed every front-runner that ran on the Flat in the UK for the last five years you’d be operating at a strike-rate of 18.3% and have returned a BSP profit of nearly 20,000 points. If you specifically looked at small fields (=<7 runners) in that period, the strike-rate would increase to 24.7% (BSP profit of over 3,800 points). Finding what’s likely to lead can often be straightforward enough pre-race (considering things like usual run style, draw and positivity of jockey) and is a factor that the market seemingly still doesn’t value highly enough, despite the late market moves on potential front-runners. On the other hand, the stats tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long term. Even when just focusing on handicaps, horses with an EPF of 4 (towards rear) and 5 (in rear) come out worst of all, with strike-rates of 13.9% and 12.2%, respectively. More races are steadily-run than strongly-run and even when getting a good pace to aim at, hold-up horses also often require luck in running.

What one piece of advice would you give to someone analysing a horse race?

If something looks too good to be true, it probably is. Being conservative/sceptical about form – particularly in lower-grade handicaps featuring exposed horses – is much safer and, hopefully, will save you money long term, unless you’ve got a good reason to be positive.

What would you change about the sport?

The amount of racing. Even as someone who works in the sport it’s tough to keep up in the summer months, so for more casual fans/punters it must be a nightmare! Coming to a big Saturday in the summer I’ll focus on two or three meetings as there simply isn’t time to do justice to any more than that. Yes, you can specialise in a distance or division, but that still means you’re missing out on a large chunk of the ‘product’ as a whole. If a sprint handicap is run at Brighton and no one bets on it, did it even take place?

Give us a trainer you think is underrated

Sticking with the Sam Spinner theme – Jedd O’Keeffe still isn’t getting the credit he deserves with his jumpers. Backing them blind in 2019/20 would have yielded over 30 points profit at BSP, and he didn’t have any huge prices skewing that stat, either, his longest price winner being Mr Scrumpy at just under 17/1. He operated at a strike-rate of 29% and had one of the best RTF stats in the country (55%), but O’Keeffe’s season should arguably have been even better, promising juvenile recruit Tavus and aforementioned stable star Sam Spinner both suffering injuries, the former’s unfortunately fatal.

Give us a young jockey you think will reach the top?

He’s hardly under the radar now but Jack Tudor seems to have all the tools to make up into a leading rider in the coming seasons, impressing with winning efforts on the likes of Potters Corner and Buster Edwards in 2019/20. The majority of his rides that season came for Christian Williams, but by the end of the campaign he’d also ridden for the likes of Brian Ellison, David Pipe and Fergal O’Brien, which is certainly no bad thing in terms of his prospects. He’s only 17 and may well become a go-to claimer in 2020/21.

Horse to follow

It’s probably easier to focus on the 2020/21 jumps season given the current situation. I was really taken with Dan Skelton’s The Mulcair when he won his novice at Southwell back in November – he looks a monster physically and was notably polished over the fixed brush hurdles. An eleven-length defeat of Jepeck, who was thriving last season, looks a lot better now than it did at the time and it’s easy enough to forgive The Mulcair’s blowout up in grade at Cheltenham on his second and final start of the season. He’s an exciting prospect for novice chasing.

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Peter Entwistle

Pat Jupp

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Andrew Sheret

Martin Dixon

Graeme North

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