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Derby Draw: How big a disadvantage is stall 1?

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Timeform analyse how runners drawn in stall 1 have fared in races over the Derby distance at Epsom.

Derby favourite English King has eased to 11/4 (from 5/2) after it was revealed that he will have to break from stall 1 at Epsom on Saturday.

Low draws are considered a disadvantage over a mile and a half at Epsom, with Oath, victorious in 1999, the last of three horses to have won from stall 1. However, finding an approach that considers how all runners fared, rather than simply the winner, provides a better guide as to the impact of the draw.

The below graph highlights how many runners over the Derby course and distance - of a mile and a half at Epsom - since 2015 have run to form.

Only 38% of horses (from a sample size of 65) breaking from stall 1 ran to form. Other low draws also fared poorly, with only 40% of horses running to form from stall 2 – the gate from which Mogul, the mount of Ryan Moore, will break.

There is a smaller sample size covering the higher stalls – each race will have a horse breaking from stall 1 but there will not always be one in stall 16 – but the available data shows that horses drawn high have tended to run to form more frequently than those drawn low.

This isn’t to say that low draws cannot win. There are a host of other important factors to consider, such as latent talent, stamina and ability to handle the course, but the data suggests there is merit in the view that a low draw is more of a hindrance than a help.

Also read:

Rowleyfile preview: Investec Handicap

Epsom aces: the highest-rated Derby winners

Simon Rowlands: what the sectionals tell us about three famous Derby results

Investec Oaks: Pedigree analysis

Investec Derby: Pedigree analysis

 

 
 

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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

20:30 NEWCASTLE

1st Ben Curtis silk 10. ONE FOR THE LADIES 10/111
2nd Amie Waugh silk 4. ORIENTAL LILLY 6/17
3rd Oisin McSweeney silk nk 1. GORGEOUS GENERAL 5/16
J: Ben Curtis  
All 14 ran.
FULL RESULT

20:00 NEWCASTLE

1st Jason Hart silk 8. CROCODILE POWER (IRE) 5/16
2nd Tom Eaves silk 7. KHAZAF 16/117
3rd Joanna Mason silk 11. PERFECT SOLDIER (IRE) 50/151
J: Jason Hart  
T: John Quinn  
13 ran. NRs: 4 
FULL RESULT

19:30 NEWCASTLE

1st Lewis Edmunds silk 12. PLASTIC PADDY 6/17
2nd David Nolan silk 2. MUSAHABA 15/82.87f
3rd Cam Hardie silk ¾ 10. ABNAA 16/117
All 13 ran.
FULL RESULT

19:00 NEWCASTLE

1st David Allan silk 5. TRIPLE JAYE 4/15
2nd Cam Hardie silk ½ 4. ANOTHER ANGEL (IRE) 9/25.5
3rd Shane Gray silk 6. ARNOLD 7/24.5f
J: David Allan  
T: Tim Easterby  
10 ran. NRs: 10 
FULL RESULT

18:30 NEWCASTLE

1st Daniel Muscutt silk 3. EURAQUILO 5/42.25f
2nd Ben Curtis silk hd 2. DUBAI IMMO (IRE) 9/25.5
3rd Ben Robinson silk 6. OUTSMART (IRE) 5/16
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

18:00 NEWCASTLE

1st Rowan Scott silk 9. THE MENSTONE GEM (IRE) 13/27.5
2nd Daniel Tudhope silk 10. EMILY POST 13/82.62f
3rd Sam James silk nk 12. WOOBAY (IRE) 18/119
J: Rowan Scott  
11 ran. NRs: 5 
FULL RESULT

17:35 BATH

1st Mollie Phillips silk 6. TEMUR KHAN 28/129
2nd Ellie MacKenzie silk hd 1. MASTER GREY (IRE) 7/18
3rd Saffie Osborne silk 2. LADY ELYSIA 4/15f
J: Mollie Phillips (3)  
T: Tony Carroll  
12 ran. NRs: 13 
FULL RESULT

17:30 NEWCASTLE

1st Hollie Doyle silk 1. AUNT BETHANY (IRE) 4/15
2nd Tom Marquand silk nk 6. PERSIST 9/43.25f
3rd Richard Kingscote silk ½ 2. CHICHEN ITZA 5/23.5
J: Hollie Doyle  
All 8 ran.
FULL RESULT

17:00 BATH

1st Ryan Tate silk 9. RUBY COTTAGE (IRE) 4/15
2nd Trevor Whelan silk 7. SARAH'S VERSE 7/18
J: Ryan Tate  
7 ran. NRs: 4  6 
FULL RESULT
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