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Royal Ascot Timefigure Preview: Day five

Timing expert Graeme North previews day five of Royal Ascot and highlights his best bets.

By the conclusion of the third day of Royal Ascot just five sires – Justify, New Bay, Night Of Thunder, No Nay Never and Sea The Stars – had been responsible for well over half of the winners and No Nay Never is represented heavily in Saturday’s opener, the Norfolk Stakes. Progeny of No Nay Never trained by Aidan O’Brien have a remarkable record in juvenile races at Royal Ascot with six winners from twenty-two runners since they first arrived on the scene in 2018, including Charles Darwin in this race last year, with another two finishing second – contrast that to the zero from nineteen and just one second place achieved by all other trainers!.

Those figures are relevant here as O’Brien is represented by Carry The Flag who along with Force Noir holds the best claims on time, as well as the more speculative entry New Yorker, while the other No Nay Never representative, Through The Years, a winner at Aqueduct last time, is trained by Wesley Ward. Carry The Flag has obvious form claims too having finished second to Coventry winner Great Barrier Reef last time and beaten Sun Goddess the time before and is clearly the one to beat. Karl Burke runs the Mehmas-sired Flight Leader, another expensive Breeze Up buy, but promising though he looked at Bath the progeny of his sire continue to come up short here in June. 

The Hardwicke is a more interesting race than it often is this year given it pitches together dual Fillies Mares winner Kalpana, Derby winner Lambourn, King George winner Goliath, Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Ethical Diamond, Hong Kong Vase winner Giavellotto and Coronation Cup winner Jan Brueghel. The last-named has run the highest figure of that sextet (126) but Legacy Link’s performance in the Ribblesdale showed the pitfalls of trusting a horse who’d had a hard race at Epsom two weeks previously and the Coronation Cup this year surely took plenty out of those who contested it. Goliath (123 in the King George) won the Grand Prix de Chantilly easily last time albeit it wasn’t much of a race. At the weights Kalpana (121 best) has every chance in receipt of 3lb, while Giavellotto (117 best) who beat her in the September Stakes last autumn and West Wind Blows (117) who was second to her in the Aston Park at Newbury last time should also be thereabouts.