Prix Rothschild Preview: Ervedya can remain unbeaten this season
Adam Brookes looks at Sunday’s eight-runner Prix Rothschild, a Group 1 for fillies and mares over the straight mile at Deauville.
Ervedya has provenherself just about the best of the specialist three-year-old miling fillies in Europe with wins in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte, Poule d’Essai des Pouliches at Longchamp and Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She beat Irish 1000 Guineas runner-up Found and English 1000 Guineas runner-up Lucida in a close finish to the last-named event.
The potential for a tactical race here is a slight concern for Ervedya given she’s been come from behind on all her starts this year—albeit from a wide draw in the Pouliches—but she looked tactically versatile when winning three of her five outings in 2014 and is the one to beat on form receiving 7 lb from her elders.
Amazing Maria has done very well since joining the David O’Meara stable, coming from the rear to win the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot and Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket on her last two starts. She managed to overcome a tactical race in the latter when given an outstanding ride by James Doyle but she’ll need to improve again to beat an on-song Ervedya (and even just to maintain her Falmouth form with Fintry and Bawina if they bring their A-game).
Fintry matched the pick of her three-year-old form when making all at a steady pace in a Chantilly Group 3 (beat Avenir Certain) in June but she failed to maintain that level when fifth in the Falmouth, albeit beaten only a length and a quarter. She could be allowed another easy lead here, though, while her yard—which also saddles the race’s unknown quantity, the same owner’s twice-raced and unbeaten three-year-old Usherette—has won this race five times, including in 2014 with Esoterique.
Bawina was also not quite at her best when fourth in the Falmouth—in which the aforementioned Lucida finished sixth but probably ought to have won, incidentally—but she was hampered/carried left in the final furlongs by the eventual third Avenir Certain. Bawina had won a Saint-Cloud Group 2 on her return (Esoterique third) and a return to that form would make her a player, albeit still not enough to beat a peak Ervedya.
Rizeena has won two Group 1s (including the 2014 Coronation Stakes) and been placed in another four, but even her best form is unlikely to be good enough here; she wasn’t far off it when two lengths second to Amazing Maria in the Duke of Cambridge last time.
The final two British raiders—after Amazing Maria and Rizeena—are Odeliz and Amulet who both gained deserved (and hard-fought) wins on their latest starts, the former wearing first-time cheekpieces in a German Group 3 and the latter winning a listed event at Nantes, but are biting off more than they can chew here.
To sum up, this could be an interesting race from a tactical point of view with Godolphin fielding the two fillies who look most likely to make the pace, but Ervedya did well to run down Found and Lucida in the Coronation and is taken to remain unbeaten for the year. Fintry may be the one to complete the forecast.
Back Ervedya in the Prix Rothschile at Deuville
|3:05||Chepstow View full result|
|1st||Je T'aime Encore||10/3|
|NR's: 2 5|
|2:55||Market Rasen View full result|
|2nd||Owen Na View (Ire)||11/8 f|
|2:45||Galway View full result|
|3rd||Medinah Gold (Ire)||16/1|
|NR's: 4 9 11 22|