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Rowleyfile Investigates: The Industry Starting Price, part one

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In part one of his special investigation, Simon Rowlands examines the Industry Starting Price system.

“Investigations” – “Special” or otherwise – are all of a sudden flavour of the month in some parts of the racing Press, so I thought I would join in with what admittedly may prove to be no more than a fad.

This particular Investigation is into Industry Starting Prices – the ones which are customarily returned in betting shops and in results’ services – as opposed to Betfair Starting Prices. It will look at the incidences of suspiciously high take-outs, which benefit bookmakers at the expense of punters, and at what – if anything – is being done to safeguard the interests of punters in this area.

But, first, some explanation seems necessary of the mechanics of Industry Starting Prices, else what comes in part two may be difficult to follow.  

The Starting Price is used to determine the odds at which successful wagers are settled for bets for which no price was taken. Some form of it has been in existence for centuries, with an increased requirement for probity in modern times.

The current Starting Price system takes a sample of the odds available to good money at the racecourse and, in the words of The Starting Price Regulatory Commission, “are seen to be independent of the bookmakers who accept off-course bets.” It would – perish the thought – be possible to rig the Starting Price to the benefit of off-course bookmakers, were that not the case.

A piece of simple arithmetic allows us to determine the mark-up involved in any given race. If you divide the numerator of a horse’s odds by the denominator, add one and then divide that into 100, you get a horse’s odds %. Sum these for all horses in a race and anything over 100 constitutes the bookmakers’ “over-round”, or theoretical edge.

As an example, in a three-runner race in which the runners go off at 5/4, 13/8 and 10/3, the calculations are as follows:

100/((5/4)+1) = 44.4%, 100/((13/8)+1) = 38.1%, 100/((10/3)+1) = 23.1%.

The sum of these %s is 44.4 + 38.1 + 23.1 = 105.6%, with the over-round being 105.6 - 100.0 = 5.6%.

The bookmakers’ over-round is the cause of much discussion and of some misunderstanding. Over-rounds went down in the early days of Betfair, with an impact on off-course betting companies’ bottom line. They have rebounded somewhat since, though the metric customarily used – over-round per runner – is flawed, as will be shown.

In order to conduct a study of over-rounds in British Flat racing in 2014 to the end of September, I first needed to establish what the standard over-rounds were for races of different sizes and different general types. For this, I used all Flat races in Britain from 2011 to 2013 inclusive.  

 

 

 

Over-rounds increase with larger field sizes, but not as a simple multiple of the number of runners. If the latter were true, then “OR/runner” would be the same across all values and that scatter plot would be horizontal: instead, they get less as field size increases and that scatter plot heads downwards. It was also apparent that there is a negligible difference between handicaps and non-handicaps in the sample.

After a bit of smoothing of the data, I carried those par over-rounds forward to an investigation of recent incidences where betting %s have, indeed, been miserly to punters. And, having identified such instances, I considered why this had been occurring and what – if anything – was being done about it.

But that is for part two of this Investigation.

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CHELTENHAM 15:05

Saturday 15 December
4. SUMMERVILLE BOY (IRE) 174
Noel Fehily silk Noel Fehily
Tom George
2. THE NEW ONE (IRE) 169
Sam Twiston-Davies silk Sam Twiston-Davies horse for course
Nigel Twiston-Davies
6. VISION DES FLOS (FR) 167
Robbie Power silk Robbie Power
Colin Tizzard
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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

14:45 DONCASTER

1st Harry Cobden silk 2. QUEL DESTIN (FR) 8/111.72f
2nd Tom Bellamy silk nk 4. ELYSEES (IRE) 15/28.5
J: Harry Cobden  
All 5 ran.
QUICK RESULT

14:40 NEWCASTLE

1st James Doyle silk 2. PARA MIO (IRE) 11/102.1f
2nd Nathan Evans silk 1 4. NEARLY THERE 15/28.5
3rd Dougie Costello silk 1. ZEALOUS (IRE) 11/26.5
J: James Doyle  
9 ran. NRs: 6 
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14:30 CHELTENHAM

1st Tom Scudamore silk 7. ROCKPOINT 11/26.5
2nd Jeremiah McGrath silk 4. LISNAGAR OSCAR (IRE) 8/19
3rd Sam Twiston-Davies silk 3 6. ROCCO (IRE) 12/113
8 ran. NRs: 3 
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14:25 FAIRYHOUSE

1st E. O'Connell silk 8. CLEMENTINA (FR) 7/18
2nd G. N. Fox silk 2 6. MING DYNASTY (FR) 8/19
3rd D. J. Mullins silk ½ 10. ALL THE CHIMNEYS (IRE) 6/17
4th Trevor Ryan silk sh 5. MICK THE BOYO (IRE) 25/126
J: E. O'Connell (5)  
16 ran. NRs: 17  18  19 
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14:20 HEREFORD

1st Lucy Gardner silk 7. COEUR BLIMEY (IRE) 7/18
2nd Hugh Nugent silk 7 10. SUBCONTINENT (IRE) 11/26.5
3rd Miss Brodie Hampson silk 7 12. COUGAR KID (IRE) 16/117
J: Lucy Gardner (3)  
All 12 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:10 DONCASTER

1st Aidan Coleman silk 4. EQUUS AMADEUS (IRE) 7/24.5
2nd Henry Brooke silk 1. IRISH ROE (IRE) 9/43.25f
T: Tom Lacey  
All 7 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:05 NEWCASTLE

1st Josephine Gordon silk 1. VISITANT 11/26.5
2nd Robert Winston silk 2. GLAN Y GORS (IRE) 20/121
3rd George Wood silk 9. DOLPHIN VILLAGE (IRE) 14/115
10 ran. NRs: 7 
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13:55 CHELTENHAM

1st Bryony Frost silk 1. FRODON (FR) 7/18
2nd Charlie Deutsch silk 7. CEPAGE (FR) 12/113
3rd Ryan Day silk 15 15. GUITAR PETE (IRE) 13/27.5
J: Bryony Frost  
12 ran. NRs: 11  12  9 
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13:50 FAIRYHOUSE

1st P. Townend silk 2. DUNVEGAN (FR) 3/14
2nd Davy Russell silk 16. SWORDSMAN (IRE) 33/134
3rd Rachael Blackmore silk 9. MORMON (IRE) 12/113
J: P. Townend  
16 ran. NRs: 17  18  19 
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