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What is a Warning Horse?

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Most Honourable was 15/8 favourite at Catterick, having won there four weeks previously. Timeform’s analysis suggested that his performance in winning might not have been all it seemed.

On New Year’s Day, Most Honourable was 15/8 favourite for a novice hurdle at Catterick, having won a juvenile event there four weeks previously. Timeform’s analysis, however, had suggested that his performance in winning might not have been all it seemed:

[…helped no end by the favourite's unseat and also found the relative emphasis on stamina more suitable than the runner-up…circumstances unlikely to be so favourable next time.]

Most Honourable?

Because his improvement was dubious, and the form flimsy, Most Honourable was marked as a ‘Warning Horse’, the warning being that he may be overestimated and therefore represent poor value on his next start. That came on New Year’s Day, when the ‘Warning Horse’ flag duly appeared next to Most Honourable’s name, and he performed well below market expectation, fourth and beaten almost 50 lengths in a field of six.

The famous Timeform squiggle warns of a horse’s character or consistency, while the new Warning Horse flag acts as an alarm bell more regards its most recent form. It’s not only flattering circumstances - as was the case with Most Honourable – that determines Warning Horses, and factors such as the weakness of a race, the shortcomings of the form or the profile of the horse all come under consideration for the ‘opposable next time’ file.

Whatever the reason behind it, each performance deemed worthy of a Warning Horse tag by Timeform’s expert team of race-readers is done so with the express intention of, at the minimum, making you think twice about trusting the horse to repeat the trick.

Essentially, it’s the opposite of Timeform’s established ‘Horse In Focus’ signifier. Both do the same highlighting job, but where a Horse In Focus is a positive indicator suggesting it could pay to bet on the horse in question next time, a Warning Horse is something to bet against.

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Flags and ratings are exclusively available in Timeform Race Cards and Race Passes.

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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

15:35 CATTERICK BRIDGE

1st William Kennedy silk 5. KIRIGLOTE (FR) 18/119
2nd Kielan Woods silk 3 4. IF KARL'S BERG DID 5/23.5f
3rd Miss Becky Smith silk 3 1. COCKNEY BEAU (FR) 10/111
15 ran. NRs: 10 
QUICK RESULT

15:30 NEWCASTLE

1st Corey Madden silk 8. GLOBAL HUMOR (USA) 15/28.5
2nd Kate Leahy silk nk 4. HASSAAD 5/16
3rd Oliver Stammers silk ¾ 1. LUCKY LODGE 7/24.5f
J: Corey Madden  
T: Jim Goldie  
11 ran. NRs: 12 
FULL RESULT

15:25 FFOS LAS

1st Charlie Price silk 7. NEVER EQUALLED (IRE) 7/42.75f
2nd Sean Bowen silk 8 3. FRANCKY DU BERLAIS (FR) 3/14
J: Charlie Price (5)  
6 ran. NRs: 6 
QUICK RESULT

15:15 ASCOT

1st Mr James Martin silk 6. MILITARIAN 50/151
2nd Tabitha Worsley silk 4 5. TOP WOOD (FR) 20/121
3rd Richie McLernon silk 9. CLOTH CAP (IRE) 8/19
J: Mr James Martin (7)  
13 ran. NRs: 4 
QUICK RESULT

15:00 CATTERICK BRIDGE

1st Harry Skelton silk 7. VERY FIRST TIME 1/21.5f
2nd Craig Nichol silk 6 1. JACK DEVINE (IRE) 12/113
T: Dan Skelton  
All 7 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:50 FFOS LAS

1st Charlie Deutsch silk 5. ARQALINA (IRE) 5/23.5
2nd Gavin Sheehan silk 6. ECTOR (FR) 5/16
3rd David Noonan silk 9 8. SUSTAINABLE STAR (IRE) 20/121
All 9 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:40 ASCOT

1st Sam Twiston-Davies silk 2. FLYING ANGEL (IRE) 3/14
2nd Jonjo O'Neill Jr. silk 8 7. SKY PIRATE 7/42.75f
7 ran. NRs: 8 
FULL RESULT

14:25 CATTERICK BRIDGE

1st Brian Hughes silk 11. PULL GREEN (IRE) 10/111
2nd Miss Becky Smith silk 12. QUOTELINE DIRECT 20/121
3rd Henry Brooke silk 4 13. SEABOROUGH (IRE) 12/113
J: Brian Hughes  
All 16 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:15 FFOS LAS

1st Sean Bowen silk 7. SUMMER NAME (IRE) 6/17
2nd Connor Brace silk nk 1. COLORADO DOC 5/16
3rd Charlie Deutsch silk 30 5. JACK VALENTINE (IRE) 10/111.9f
J: Sean Bowen  
All 8 ran.
FULL RESULT
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