Ratings Update: Zig zipping and Serge's surge

Like many of us, racing tends to try out a lean spell after the excesses of Christmas. Like most of us, it has given up by mid-January. Big ratings news since Leopardstown has been few and far between and you can expect new learnings to be equally sparse until Sprinter Sacre makes his planned comeback at Ascot on Saturday week.

The most significant developments over the last week came at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. The Grade 3 handicap chase was ostensibly the feature but its main use has been in drawing comparisons with the Dipper over the same C&D. The second-named race was run in a 3.3-second quicker time and winner Ptit Zig carried 5 lb more than winner of the handicap (and fellow novice) Splash of Ginge. That considered, the difference between Ptit Zig (153p) and Splash of Ginge (148) could be a lot more pronounced. This is acknowledged in the symbols on Ptit Zig and Dipper runner-up Champagne West (148p) and we expect to see both in one Festival novice or another. Splash of Ginge’s rating gets him a ticket to something like the Golden Miller, but such a figure is unlikely to win him a Grade 1.

Another one-time Champion Hurdle horse who could end up over three miles this season is Rock On Ruby. It would take something seismic to put him in the picture for a second Champion Hurdle and his manner in winning on Thursday would suggest he’ll get the three miles of the World Hurdle, which is much more open. Rated 161, Rock On Ruby is level with Zarkandar and ahead of most of the others in the World Hurdle picture, including Cole Harden (157) and Beat That (156p) who both finished behind him on Thursday. The second-named of those could yet be the joker in the back, clearly not quite there for his belated reappearance and looked after once held. We’ll learn more about him next time.

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Sandown hosted Saturday’s biggest racing and the first Grade 1 of the year, the Tolworth Hurdle. Four ran, three finished and only two mattered. Actually, only one really mattered and that’s why getting a firm handle on L’Ami Serge (156) has proved difficult. That impressions had been so positive about runner-up Jolly’s Cracked It (137) up to Saturday, a high view of the form is called for, especially with the useful Shelford (136) already well beaten when he came down at the last.

It’s been reported that L’Ami Serge will go straight to the Supreme. There have been some truly outstanding renewals of that race in recent years and three of the last four winners would have beaten a 156 performance, but we can probably take them to be the exception rather than the rule. More than two months in advance of the race, I’ll venture only so far as to say that if a horse runs to 156 in the Supreme it will win far more often than not.

Also at Sandown, Aurore d’Estruval did her Festival claims no harm in winning the listed mares’ race. She stays on 147 but did prove her stamina for two and a half miles beyond doubt in testing conditions. Much depends on the plans for Annie Power (163), but removing that one from calculations puts Aurore d’Estruval very near to the answer line, behind only Glens Melody (150) on ratings.

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Finally for Britain, we’ll touch on Newbury and the Challow Hurdle there last Monday. Parlour Games (146) emerged victorious, having the stamina to last home as Vyta du Roc and Blaklion rallied. The winner sits between the placed horses (rated 147 and 144p respectively) and the result of any rematch would probably depend on conditions. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either Blaklion or even Vyta du Roc stepped up to three miles come the spring, while the 21 furlongs of the Baring Bingham will probably test Parlour Games’s stamina to the limit.

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We finish with a visit to Ireland, where a lean first weekend in January has been fattened up somewhat by the addition of a Grade 1 novice hurdle to the Naas card on Sunday. In truth the achievement in the Lawlor's Hotel Novice Hurdle wasn’t all that exciting, more damage done to the reputation of vanquished pair Tell Us More (138p) and Free Expression (137p) than anything else.

McKinley (136) had seen his own climb arrested when flopping over Christmas and in getting back to form he raises his rating. It’s still a long way off what will be required in most Grade 1s. Experience was the difference on the day and, as the ratings imply, we’d expect the placed horses to be exacting their revenge sooner rather than later should they continue to meet.