Ratings Update: Look out, old Sacre's back

It was impossible not to be caught up in the moment as we saw Sprinter Sacre stretch away up the hill at Cheltenham on Sunday. But afterwards, once the human co-stars had beamed into television cameras and the victorious horse had been presented to the new-look Cheltenham winners’ enclosure, were we looking back or looking forward?

For most people the answer is probably a blend of the two. Indeed, they’re surely related contingencies. Taking things retrospectively isn’t necessarily to give in to misty-eyed nostalgia: the future for Sprinter Sacre is best informed by the past, both his own and that of others.

The obvious comparison to draw is with Kauto Star, the only other chaser of the modern era in Sprinter Sacre’s league. After an injury-hit season in 2010/11, when he couldn’t manage a Timeform rating above the 160s, Kauto Star was able to recapture enough of his 191-rated best to become our Champion Staying Chaser of 2011/12, with a rating of 179. But for a slight setback caused by a schooling fall ahead of that March’s Gold Cup, he might have won the race for a third time, given he was rated 12 lb superior to winner Synchronised.

Sprinter Sacre was rated 192p at his best, yet managed no better than 163 last season after missing more than a year through heart trouble. Like Kauto Star, the summer that followed has evidently been one of revitalisation, as for all few of his opponents gave their best in Sunday’s Shloer Chase, that Sprinter Sacre put another nine lengths or so into them from the last suggests that the weak finishing that acted as the main black mark against him last season is no longer an issue.

Sprinter Sacre’s new rating is 175+, which puts him back into the Champion bracket. The mean of all of Timeform’s Champion Two-Mile Chasers this century is 175.88, while the median is precisely 175. Though there are obviously shortcomings in a dataset of 16, the coincidence presented by the numbers is a neat little way of saying that Sprinter Sacre is back- or at least ‘back’ to the extent that he can be a champion once more.

With Sprinter Sacre we’re used to talking in the general or historical sense. Narrow the context to simply what’s around just now and things look just as bright. Un de Sceaux, hitherto expected to arrive at the Champion Chase as triumphantly as Christ into Jerusalem, is rated 169p and now has to exercise that symbol where before he needn’t necessarily. Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets, reportedly a bit behind in his development this winter, is on 168.

Of course, this all assumes that the Sprinter Sacre we saw on Sunday hangs around. The inaugural Shloer Chase was held in 2009 and won by 10-year-old Well Chief, the greatest champion two-miler there never was, whose success over Master Minded unfortunately proved to be no more than a last hurrah. Without wishing to be unduly negative, it should be remembered that Sprinter Sacre now has a lot more scars on show than the untouchable seven-year-old of 2013.

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Such is Sprinter Sacre’s charisma that even a performance more than a stone below his best commands half of this column, even in the week of the Open meeting. Overall, the Open is a fixture given to statements of intent rather than the crowning of champions. For the purposes of ratings, the novice events, especially those over fences, can be more important than the big handicaps.

As a case in point, we had a champion on show on Friday in what’s so often an indicative novice chase. More of That, making just his second start since winning the 2014 World Hurdle, was good enough on the day to beat As de Mee (140p) and Dell ‘Arca (143). He’s been given an initial chase rating of 148P. It can be implied that we expect high-class form from him this season. His jumping might have been novice-like on a few occasions, but he went about things as though his considerable engine is intact.

Garde La Victoire didn’t make it to championship standard over hurdles, though he seems hardly any less a candidate for top honours as a chaser and he too produced a workmanlike, if ultimately fairly assertive win over the weekend. He’s now rated 145p and seems an obvious candidate for the first Grade 1 novice of the season, the Henry VIII at Sandown, where the tendency to jump a little low that he’s shown so far ought not to be an issue. Sandown’s fences are daunting in their number, rather than their size.

The third traditionally strong novice chase of the meeting produced a shock, with Vicente (145) beating Un Temps Pour Tout (135p). We reckon it’s a result that mightn’t stand up by the season’s end, as Blaklion (142p) was still very much in with a chance when departing three out, while the favourite wasn’t the only Pipe-trained runner in recent days to fail to come up to scratch. For the first time since 2007, there wasn’t a Pipe-trained winner at the Open meeting.

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The novice hurdles as the Open often aren’t as indicative as the chases, in large part because the division itself takes longer to arrive at its final shape. Matters weren’t helped by a few high-profile horses not coming up to scratch, perhaps most notably Penglai Pavilion in the Grade 2 Hyde on Friday. He’s been downgraded to 135 after flopping behind Shantou Village. The winner has been rated 141p, which is a cautious view of his defeat of useful bumper winner (and Pipe-trained) Champers On Ice (121p).

Also disappointing were virtually all of the fancied horses in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle on Saturday. The result is a win for Wolf of Windlesham (129p) that’s rated 5 lb below the five-year average. The winner should still have a say in other good juvenile hurdles, though it would be something of a surprise if he were to reach the Triumph Hurdle as a leading contender, not having the Flat form you’d expect of a future star over timber.

On Sunday we had the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle, which although it had a winning favourite in Altior (144p) suffered for the subsequently-revealed injury to runner-up Maputo, whose promising career was ended there and then. Altior looks to be a horse still learning, so he can go on to further graded success even though he might have struggled to win on Sunday against a sound Maputo.

A final mention in this section goes to bumper winners Copper Kay (112+) and Ballyandy (115), whose ratings both suggest that they can go far over hurdles, or even have a say in the best races in this division should they be sent down that route.

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Finally for the Open meeting, we move onto the handicaps. Those of most interest was unsurprisingly the Grade 3s, headed by the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Annacotty (150) produced a career-best on his first start for Alan King to take the prize. We should also give a mention to third-placed Sound Investment, who carried top weight with great credit and, now rated 161, is worth a try in graded conditions races at some point this season. The same might be said of Irish Cavalier (157), who’s not far off that standard and shaped notably well in the testing conditions.

It’s also expected that we’ll see more from Sausalito Sunrise (149+) and Upswing (139p) in good staying handicaps this winter after the pair finished first and second in a well-contested renewal of the Murphy Group Chase. Both were showing previously unproven depths of stamina, too, which opens up more options.

Though the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday was let down by the flops of Mick Jazz (found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat) and Nabucco (undone by softer ground), it still appeals as a good race and as an improving four-year-old Old Guard (152) represents the ‘right’ sort of winner. There’s a way to go before he’s competing with top two-milers, though he’s in the right hands to keep stepping up should he have it in him.

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The gap to the best two-mile hurdlers got that little bit smaller on Sunday, as Faugheen suffered his first defeat as a hurdler at the hands of Nichols Canyon (156p) in the Morgiana Hurdle. It would be wrong to take the result at face value, as it was a typically muddling small-field Irish graded race, though it was undoubtedly a disappointing run from 6/1-on favourite Faugheen and he’s been adjusted down 1 lb, to 170.

Also at Punchestown on Sunday we had two Grade 2 novice chases, the Florida Pearl (won by Shantou Flyer, 140+) and Craddockstown. Sizing John (151p) took the second-named race, impressing with how the ground three-time chase winner Lord Scoundrel into submission. Even if, as mentioned above, Garde La Victoire is Britain’s main Arkle hope, he could face an unusually strong Irish challenge, with Supreme winner Douvan (h168p) yet to be seen over fences.

Outlander’s success at the same course on Saturday came more from the More of That/Garde La Victoire mould, garnering respect rather than high praise. Even so, his initial rating of 144p suggests he’ll be mixing it with the best novices before long.