Ratings Update: Ballyandy the one to beat in the Champion Bumper

This column has had plenty to discuss with a view to the Cheltenham Festival in recent weeks, and comparatively this edition is somewhat lacking, with many of the potential Festival horses doing more to rule themselves out of the reckoning for Cheltenham than anything else over the weekend.

For all it featured L’Ami Serge – who before the race was second-favourite in places for the Arkle – the turnout for the Kingmaker at Warwick was disappointing to say the least. The Kingmaker is traditionally one of Britain’s most prestigious novice chases this side of the spring festivals, and the lack of depth in the line-up cannot be entirely attributed to the bad ground. With nothing against the winner Violet Dancer, who is as genuine as they come and is now 4/5 over fences, it is Timeform’s opinion that there is a symptomatic lack of depth in the 2m chasing division in Britain at present.

The general depth of graded racing was not much better at Newbury, either, and the Denman Chase – a race taken en route to Cheltenham by two of the last four Gold Cup winners – was a substandard renewal that was not worthy of its top-class namesake. The first two in the market, Rocky Creek and Ballynagour, both lived up to their patchy profiles and were well below form, leaving Houblon Des Obeaux, who was second behind Coneygree in this race last year, to pick up the pieces. The winner may well head to Cheltenham for a third tilt at the Gold Cup, though there is no reason to think he will better his previous finishing positions of 9^th and 11^th.

The market told the tale in the Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit), with the reappearing Dodging Bullets drifting to such a degree that he actually ended up second-favourite to the winner Top Gamble at the off. Top Gamble (157) ran right up to his best again, providing Kerry Lee with further success in her debut season, but it is difficult seeing him play a major role in the Ryanair (his only Festival entry).

Dodging Bullets was clearly in need of the run after nearly a year off the track, and will be a much different prospect as he defends his Champion Chase crown in March. This year’s race is undoubtedly a stronger renewal, and the presence of Un De Sceaux (180p) means that Dodging Bullets (166) is likely to be playing for places with the likes of Sprinter Scare (172) and Sire De Grugy (168).

It was not all doom and gloom at Newbury, however, as Ballyandy (121) confirmed himself as the one to beat in the Champion Bumper on form with a nine-length success in what is traditionally a strong race (won by the likes of Al Ferof, Shutthefrontdoor and Barters Hill). There will no doubt be a raft of smart Mullins challengers on show at the Festival, but Ballyandy is progressive and merits serious consideration for the Champion Bumper.

Ryanair hope Smashing was just found wanting at the highest level during his novice season over fences – although he did run into a place in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse on his final start – but he impressively extended his unbeaten record this term on Saturday in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, putting up a career-best effort in the process. He is now Timeform-rated 157+, and like Top Gamble, will have to improve again to get involved in the Ryanair with the likes of Al Ferof (170) and Road to Riches (165). However, Smashing doesn’t have as much to find with his Festival rivals as Red Mills Hurdle winner Sempre Medici (154) does with the likes of Faugheen (177) for his reported target, the Champion Hurdle.

There were three graded races at Navan on Sunday, but the Flyingbolt Novice Chase and the Boyne Hurdle mustered just six runners in total, and with the odds-on Dedigout seemingly in need of the run in the latter, they were both ultimately below-par renewals, with no obvious bearing going forward. We may well see Boyne Hurdle winner Snow Falcon (Timeform-rated 149) in the World Hurdle, though it is hard to see him troubling those at the head of the market, such as Thistlecrack (167p) and Annie Power (162).

In contrast, the third Grade 2 at Navan on Sunday – the Ten Up Novice Chase – did look an up-to-scratch renewal, and although the odds-on Black Hercules did his Festival claims no favours with an unfortunate last-flight fall when yet to be asked for his effort, he remains an exciting chasing prospect (Timeform rated 151p) who will take plenty of beating wherever he goes next.

Black Hercules has three Festival entries, but the market would suggest that his target may well be the National Hunt Chase where, interestingly, Ballychorus (146) – who atoned for two late falls in hot handicaps when winning a mare’s chase with ease on Thursday last week – tops our weight-adjusted Timeform Ratings at this stage, and could rate a decent bet at current odds of 25/1, given it is her reported target.

The less that is said about Exeter’s Sunday card the better, but it is worth giving a mention to the progressive Unowhatimeanharry, who completed a four-timer and retained his unbeaten record for Harry Fry after a ten-week break. His fourth win brought about another jolt of improvement, and his profile, coupled with the way he won, suggests that he should go on improving. The Pertemps Final (of which this was a qualifier) would be a natural target for him at the Festival, but he does have an Albert Bartlett entry, and he would not look out of place at that level, for all he has a bit to find with the likes of Barters Hill (151P) considering he is now Timeform rated 141p.