Bet Slip
My Bet Slip
-
How to use My Betslip
Placing a Single Bet Placing a Multiple Bet Manage bookmakers

Simply click a price on Race Passes and we’ll take you off to place your bet with your favourite bookmaker. You can also place single bets from the Bet Slip – just click the price in the Bet Slip.

Our Bet Slip allows you to build up your selections before you begin placing multiple bets with your favourite bookmakers. Click the +BET button to add your selections and then, when you’re ready, hit ‘Bet Now’ to go to your chosen bookmaker’s site and place your bets.

Select the bookmaker prices you want to display on Race Passes by switching the toggles between show and hide in the Bookmaker Manager, or use the Currently Showing selection screen. We will automatically display the best odds from your chosen bookmakers.

Note that Betfair Exchange prices are available to logged in customers only and are not included in the best odds calculation.

Bets Odds
You currently have no selections.
timeform logo mini sign in to timeformSign In

register to timeformRegister Free Bets
timeform menu collapse

The Timeform Knowledge: Staking

ArticleImage

In the latest edition of the Timeform Knowledge, Simon Rowlands addresses how much you should be betting.

Now then: you have a bet, possibly arrived at through some of the processes described in earlier modules of The Timeform Knowledge; you know what are its odds; you know what you think should be its odds; and you know how much money in total you have at your disposal. What should you do with that information?

In terms of general principles, it would be difficult to improve greatly upon the guidance issued in tongue-in-cheek manner by Timeform’s founder and lifelong atheist, Phil Bull, in his “Ten Commandments”, published in 1970:

“Let thy stake be related to the depth of thy pocket and to what thou regardest as the true chance of the horse; that which hath the greater chance deserveth the greater stake.”

Or, as it is more technically known, the Kelly Criterion.

The eponymous John Kelly was a remarkable character: a gun-toting Texan daredevil, physicist, early computer scientist and bona-fide genius who was reportedly inspired by corrupt wagering on the pre-recorded TV show “The $64,000-Dollar Question” to look into how a bettor, believing they have an edge, should stake optimally.

Optimally, in this context, meant the bettor never risked losing their entire bank. Kelly’s findings had a more immediate and intentional application at the time in what was the nascent field of information theory.

Anecdotally, Kelly initially presented his idea to his bosses at Bells Laboratories as a system for betting on hypothetically fixed horse races (this was the US: that sort of thing never happens in Britain, obviously) but was persuaded to make his content less controversial.

“A New Interpretation of Information Rate, by J. L. Kelly, Jr” came out in 1956 to very little acclaim – not least because the maths behind it is beyond most mere mortals – but gained popularity among a small number of investors and professional card players in the 1960s and 1970s and is now considered by many to be the final word on optimal staking, be it on the Stock Exchange or in betting markets. At least in theory.

The “at least in theory” bit is because there are a few real-world issues which mean that many bettors – including some who turn over vast sums on horseracing markets – use an adapted version of the Kelly Criterion rather than its purest form.

Fortunately, the abstruse maths have been simplified by some over the years, so that mere mortals can use a modified version of it also, including by Nick Mordin in his 2002 book “Winning Without Thinking”.

Mordin recommends the following: 1, Work out the chance, in % terms, that you think the horse has of winning; 2, Multiply this by the horse’s actual odds; 3, Subtract the probability, again in % terms, you believe the horse has of losing; and 4, Divide the result of the above by the horse’s actual odds.

The result is the % of your betting capital you should risk.

This can also be expressed as: (((P*O) – Q )/O) = % of bank risked, where P is the % chance of success, Q is the % chance of failure (equal to 100 minus P), and O is the horse’s actual fractional odds (or decimal odds minus one).

In an example in which you think a horse should be even money (50% chance of winning) and its odds are 2/1 (or 3.0 decimally), the equation gives you (((50*2) – 50)/2) = 25% of your bank.

An example of the Kelly Criterion spreadsheet is shown below, a download is available here so that readers can do such calculations quickly.

The real-world issues referred to a bit earlier include: that the bet you strike could affect the odds you secure (especially in pool betting); the unrealistic assumption that you will always get your bet accepted or matched to its full stake (or even at all); the difficulty in applying Kelly to coinciding and contingent events; and, perhaps most importantly, that – however good our judgement and/or algorithms – our assessment of probabilities may be flawed.

Anecdotally, some betting syndicates and big bettors use “Half-Kelly”, “Quarter-Kelly” or “Discounted Kelly”, whereby the suggested stake is factored down by an amount linked to the confidence in the assessment of the probabilities in the first place.

It is mathematically sub-optimal but seemingly a sensible ploy in reality.

Nonetheless, the basic principle of the Kelly Criterion – that you should stake according to the edge you have and the likelihood of the event occurring – is sound and should inform a sensible bettor’s approach, even if that bettor does not use the Kelly Criterion itself.

Discipline is highly important in staking as well as in selecting the bets you bet upon, with a rigid adoption of a version of the Kelly Criterion perhaps being the most disciplined approach to staking imaginable.

As with many other things, you either have discipline or you don’t, but it is possible to acquire it if you put your mind to it (and it is definitely possible to lose it if you don’t).

Remember, whatever else you do, to avoid staking which varies alarmingly for no good reason, and always be aware that no staking “system” ever devised can make up for fundamental deficiencies in selecting your bets.

TIMEFORM RACE CARD PDF DOWNLOADS

Horse racing free bet offers

  • Bet £10 Get £40 in free bets for horse racing

    New customers only – £10 deposit using promo code "RACING" - First bet must be placed on any market - Minimum stake £10 at odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time. General deposit method & withdrawal restrictions apply & Full T&C’s apply

    Read 888sport Review
  • Bet £5, get £20 in free bets

    18+ Eligible UK+IRE players. Paypal & some deposit & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cash-out, restrictions & T&Cs apply.

    Read Coral Review
  • Bet £10 get £20 in free bets

    New customers only, min deposit and bet £10 from UK Debit card only. Min odds evens (1/5 per multi selection). 4x £5 Free Bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned, no cash out. T&Cs apply.

    Read Mansion Bet Review

Free Daily Race Pass (Result)

PONTEFRACT 13:45

Monday 19 October
2. PYTHAGORAS (IRE) 1st
Paul Hanagan silk Paul Hanagan
Richard Fahey
5. MYSTERY ANGEL (IRE) 2nd
Ben Curtis silk Ben Curtis
George Boughey
Go to full race

LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

15:50 PONTEFRACT

1st Lewis Edmunds silk 8. ROUND THE ISLAND 7/24.5
2nd Ben Curtis silk 2. WHAT A BUSINESS (IRE) 3/14f
3rd Daniel Tudhope silk 3. SWEET PURSUIT 11/112
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT

15:40 PLUMPTON

1st Harry Cobden silk 1. DR SANDERSON (IRE) 5/23.5
2nd Brendan Powell silk 3. ENRICHISSANT (FR) 5/16
J: Harry Cobden  
5 ran. NRs: 4  7 
QUICK RESULT

15:35 GOWRAN PARK

1st Oisin James Orr silk 5. PORT SUNLIGHT (IRE) 9/43.25f
2nd N. M. Crosse silk 3 8. EVEN FLOW (IRE) 3/14
3rd Ben Martin Coen silk 3. CREATE BELIEF (IRE) 25/126
14 ran. NRs: 15  16 
FULL RESULT

15:30 WINDSOR

1st Silvestre De Sousa silk 11. RAINS OF CASTAMERE 4/15
2nd David Probert silk 13. GLOBAL STYLE (IRE) 20/121
3rd Ray Dawson silk 2. SIR PLATO (IRE) 16/117
T: Mick Channon  
13 ran. NRs: 6 
FULL RESULT

15:20 PONTEFRACT

1st Paul Hanagan silk 8. SOCIETY QUEEN (IRE) 10/111
2nd Kevin Stott silk 9. WOTS THE WIFI CODE 2/13f
3rd Lewis Edmunds silk nk 1. PENNY POT LANE 7/24.5
J: Paul Hanagan  
9 ran. NRs: 10  7 
FULL RESULT

15:10 PLUMPTON

1st Jack Tudor silk 11. GLOBAL WONDER (IRE) 7/18
2nd Brendan Powell silk 5 9. PLENTY OF BUTTY (IRE) 7/24.5
3rd Joshua Moore silk 2 4. FURIA D'OUDAIRIES (FR) 6/17
J: Jack Tudor (5)  
T: Suzi Best  
11 ran. NRs: 13  6 
FULL RESULT

15:05 GOWRAN PARK

1st Seamie Heffernan silk 8. ROMAN EMPIRE (IRE) 5/23.5
2nd Shane Foley silk 2 6. MCPHERSON 6/42.5f
3rd G. F. Carroll silk ¾ 7. RAVE N CONTAGION (IRE) 25/126
9 ran. NRs: 3 
FULL RESULT

15:00 WINDSOR

1st Martin Dwyer silk 5. EPIC ENDEAVOUR (IRE) 7/24.5f
2nd Ellie MacKenzie silk 4. MOSTAWAA 4/15
3rd Silvestre De Sousa silk 9. SACRE BLEU 9/25.5
J: Martin Dwyer  
T: William Muir  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:50 PONTEFRACT

1st Ben Curtis silk 1. COCKALORUM (IRE) 2/13f
2nd Paul Hanagan silk ns 7. VICEREGENT 8/19
J: Ben Curtis  
T: Roger Fell  
All 7 ran.
FULL RESULT
Go to Horse Racing Results