The Timeform Knowledge: Ante-Post Betting

In most crucial respects, ante-post betting – or wagering on an event that is some way in the future – is much like any other betting. The same principles of seeking value and of staking sensibly apply.

However, the timescale and the incomplete nature of some of the information on which a punter acts is greater, of course.  

Timeform’s “Long Ranger” ante-post guru Martin Dixon observes:

“Because we are dealing with the big races, at the big meetings, as ante-post punters we are often trying to find the winner of some of the most competitive events weeks or months in advance.

This is a tough ask, working without the knowledge of the field, the going, the draw (in Flat races), the jockey and other variants which race-day bettors can factor in.

As such, don't expect strike-rates to be high, and rather than trying to 'find the winner' focus primarily on finding horses that will shorten up in the market so you are in a position to trade out, either for a profit or a 'free bet'.

It's not sufficient to simply think 'that's a Grand National type', for instance, because connections aren't sure to view that race as a target. So, as well as form study, it's important to listen to interviews and read quotes to give yourself the best possible chance of actually backing a runner.

Despite what some may say, if you’re a decent judge and do your background work, there is still value to be found in modern ante-post markets, particularly in the non-handicap National Hunt races where we are regularly dealing with established horses for whom there is a well-structured race programme.”

An ante-post bet could, perhaps, be viewed as a double on the horse to run in the race in question and then to win it.  

There is a potential asymmetry in information, with the punter knowing less about some aspects of a potential bet than do others. But this is part of the challenge, rather than an insurmountable hurdle.

For instance, when trying to determine the intentions of a trainer it is worth understanding that usually only a few at most of a block entry from one trainer or one operation will contest a given race, no matter how prestigious. If a horse is clearly the stable star it is more likely to run in a suitable but specific high-profile event than if it was one of several stars in a high-powered set-up.

Ante-post prices which are issued immediately after a race can sometimes offer great value, albeit fleetingly. Bookmakers’ representatives do not always sing from the same hymn sheet to the degree they seem to at other times.

Prepare yourself to know what to expect and to respond to what actually happens when, say, a trial for a classic takes place. The immediate post-race odds quoted for the classic itself may be done in ignorance of some important nuggets of information, such as the time and sectional value of the performance.        

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As with other forms of betting, evidence and preparation are important considerations when striking an ante-post bet. There is likely to be some sort of a precedent for the kind of bet you are striking, if not for the precise bet itself.

For instance, with nearly all roads in jump racing leading to the Cheltenham Festival in March, it should be both possible and relevant to establish what it takes to win there – or run well there if you prefer – from past evidence.

A basic count of winners since 2001 gives the following:

From which it might be deduced that:

• Seven-year-olds have a particularly good winning record in the Arkle and RSA Chases but five-year-olds have done better in the Champion Bumper
• That February is, unsurprisingly, the best month overall for a horse to have had its final race before the following month’s Cheltenham Festival, but that December (the month of the King George VI and Lexus Chases) is strong for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and January for the Champion Chase
• That a last-time win is, unsurprisingly, a positive indicator overall, but more so for the Champion Bumper (in which non-winners may be balloted out) and less so for the RSA Chase

This is not the same as stating that a horse of a given age or profile should be overlooked come the day.

For instance, five-year-olds have performed perfectly well as an age-group in the World Hurdle, finishing placed a few times, but for one reason or other very few of them turn up in the race, and it is hardly surprising therefore that none of them has won. That is worth knowing at the time you strike an ante-post bet.

It could be observed that, among current short-priced favourites for the 2016 Cheltenham Festival, Douvan (six come next March) would be a younger-than-average winner of the Arkle Chase, that Faugheen (eight) would be an older-than-average winner of the Champion Hurdle, and that Un de Sceaux (eight) falls in the mid-range of winners of the Champion Chase (but age seems not to be an especially dominant factor in that race).

One last thing where ante-post betting on the Cheltenham Festival in particular is concerned is that it should be noted that many bookmakers start offering non-runner/money-back guarantees in the weeks leading up to the event.

One of the downsides of ante-post betting is failing to get a run for your money. If that risk is removed a borderline value bet may become a decidedly good one. Those bookmakers are scrambling over one another for your business: it would be rude not to indulge them!