Key factors when assessing a race

Do your research

Make an assessment of what to expect of a horse in a race, while keeping an open mind about what actually does. In particular, consider those factors that are different for a horse than previously/recently (headgear, distance, going, absence etc).

Clue yourself up about different racecourses: which tend to favour speed over stamina; which ride differently on account of the ground; which favour certain types of horses; which may have a draw bias; and so on. Understand how different trainers work, especially in the formative part of a horse’s career. Pay attention to (without overplaying) the betting, which may contain important indications of what may unfold and why.

Be Thorough

Watch a race a number of times through, on the first occasion ideally without any commentary (which can mislead, or at least lead in a certain direction). Establish the facts of what went on in a race before layering interpretation on top of them.

Pay particular attention to the start, what happens in the first few seconds of a race, especially a Flat race, can dictate events for long after.

Big-field races are best “deconstructed” into groups of horses in similar field positions and/or (on the Flat) coming from similar stalls: follow each group through as a mini-race in itself, then “construct” the race back into a whole at the end.

Be Canny

Be aware of different jockeys’ styles when assuming horses are going well or travelling badly. In some instances that can put you away. Clue yourself up about what marks out a horse as being inexperienced (which may well be a positive for the future) and what marks out one as being ungenuine (which is not).

Inexperienced horses may be wayward, or require driving at an early stage of a race, but they usually show signs of learning as things go along; ungenuine horses tend to look reluctant – through sulking, swerving or failing to go through with their efforts (often accompanied by a high head carriage) – without any redeeming features, and often at the stage of a race where the precise opposite is required of them.

Understand the significance of pace on outcomes. Was the race strongly run? Did this set it up for the closers and those that are suited by the emphasis on stamina? Or was the pace steady and the race tested speed and favoured those ridden close up? Getting this right is absolutely crucial to drawing the right conclusions.

Be Predictive

Ask yourself both “what would this effort mean in a wider context?” and “what may this mean for the future?” It is all well and good faithfully recording the finer details of a race, or a performance, but that will count for little unless you can put it into a wider context, both in the here and now (is the race/performance strong, weak, reliable, or unreliable in the wider scheme of things?) and in the future.

Be Self-Critical

Follow your observations through. Not just the ones that lead to bets but the ones that did not. Look to improve your methods through honest appraisal of whether or not you drew the right conclusions previously. That race you thought was strong but from which runners bombed left, right and centre. Where did you go wrong? That horse you thought was a stayer who stopped as if shot every time it raced at further, should you have interpreted things differently?

It can take a lifetime of toil to realise that mastering race reading is an on-going concept, but it is fundamentally one of the most worthwhile to increase your understanding of the game. Good quality race reading remains in remarkably short supply, and therein lies an opportunity for those who are prepared to try.