Ratings Update: Can Clouds develop into a Cheltenham contender?

The 2014 renewal of the Hennessy Gold Cup was lacking a top-class chaser at the head of the weights, though there were a number of potentially well-treated second-season chasers in the field, and the winner, Many Clouds, fell into that bracket. An overly-strong pace on soft ground turned the race into a thorough test – more horses pulled-up than completed – and Many Clouds (158+) relished the increased emphasis on stamina, putting up a career-best effort as he produced a performance, in ratings terms, similar to those of last season’s winner Triolo D’Alene and 2008 victor Madison du Berlais. He will obviously need to improve again if he is to make an impact in the Cheltenham Gold Cup - current favourite Silviniaco Conti is rated 176 - but he is progressive and shouldn’t be discounted in an open-looking division. A more suitable spring target, however, could well be the Grand National as Many Clouds, a sound-jumping, thorough stayer with a fantastic attitude, seems to possess all the attributes required to excel at Aintree.

The best Hennessy performance from a ratings perspective actually came from top-weight Houblon des Obeaux (161) as he was beaten just three and a quarter lengths despite giving 6 lb to the winner. It was a tough, gallant effort from Houblon des Obeaux but the attritional nature of the race suited him down to the ground, and, considering he was well exposed at the highest level last season, he could prove tricky to place in future.

Willie Mullins’ lightly-raced five-year-old Djakadam came in for good ante-post support but failed to match expectations, trailing home a well-beaten eighth of nine finishers. He travelled strongly for much of the race, however, suggesting he has more to offer as a chaser, and it should be noted that our racecourse reporter felt he looked short of peak fitness beforehand. He’s certainly not one to write off on the back of this admittedly disappointing run.

Newbury on Saturday was also notable for the return – and flop – of World Hurdle winner More of That in the Long Distance Hurdle. So progressive last season, More of That had shown top-class form at Cheltenham when taking Annie Power’s unbeaten record, but he forfeited his own perfect profile in tame fashion as he trailed home a disappointing third, 25 lengths behind the well-ridden Medinas who reversed West Yorkshire Hurdle form with Cole Harden. Cole Harden was ridden aggressively in an attempt to expose any fitness issues held by the returning More of That but, though that proved successful, he was left vulnerable to the patiently-ridden Medinas (153) who proved as good as ever, even if seen to best advantage. On the ratings, Cole Harden – who was giving 8 lb to Medinas – actually produced marginally the best effort in the Long Distance Hurdle (154) and he could still have a bit more to offer, so makes greater appeal as a World Hurdle prospect.

More of That performed somewhere in the region of two and a half stone below his best in the Long Distance Hurdle. One explanation is that he was undercooked on his return and a truly-run race on soft ground brutally exposed this lack of fitness. However, the application of a tongue tie for the first time adds another piece to the puzzle, and there are certainly questions to answer, for all he may be a much better proposition next time with the benefit of this run under his belt.

There were some noteworthy performances from novice chasers at Newbury as Coneygree and Carraig Mor both looked good prospects in opening their accounts over fences, earning Timeform ratings of 143p and 139p respectively. Coneygree – whose intended return from a 22-month absence at Plumpton had to be postponed, much to the disgust of connections – benefited from Saphir du Rheu’s early departure, but he put in a superb round of jumping and looked very much a natural, always holding Dell’ Arca’s late challenge. Coneygree is sure to be at least as effective upped to three miles and will be a force to be reckoned with when the mud is flying. The form of Carraig Mor’s success isn’t easy to judge as chief rival Southfield Theatre failed to jump with any fluency, however it was an encouraging performance from the winner and he could yet do better. Carraig Mor wasn’t the only potentially-smart novice representing Alan King, though, as Ned Stark (142p) took another step forward to comfortably maintain his unbeaten start over fences. Ned Stark, who clearly progressed from his hard-fought success at Huntingdon, won with plenty in hand and appeals as very much one to keep on the right side, particularly as his stamina is drawn out.

There was a significant result at Newcastle on Saturday as Irving’s success in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle brought up 100 Grade 1 wins for Paul Nicholls. It was by no means the most competitive of top-level races that Nicholls has won, and the muddling gallop played into the hands of his speedy representative who showed a sharp turn of foot to settle things, but it still represented a career-best effort from Irving (155+) who showed that a crunching fall at Wincanton hadn’t left a mark. He’s clearly a talented horse under the right conditions but he’ll probably need to improve somewhere in the region of a stone to trouble the likes of Faugheen (166p), Jezki (170) and The New One (169) in the Champion Hurdle, while he still has to prove his effectiveness at Cheltenham following a poor run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

There were three Grade 1 races at Fairyhouse on Sunday, the highlight undoubtedly the Drinmore Novice Chase. A number of leading prospects were pitted against one another but the highly-regarded Valseur Lido came out on top and his new rating of 153p puts him right up there amongst the best in the division: only second-season novice Gods Own and Vautour are rated higher at this juncture. The Tullow Tank proved disappointing, failing to match never mind better his debut effort, but, him apart, the right horses were on the premises and the Drinmore looks a solid, reliable piece of form. Of the beaten horses, Apache Stronghold (144p), in particular, may be worth marking up as he seemed rather put off by the antics of Real Steel who jumped markedly out to his left. Apache Stronghold is sure to win races at graded level over fences.

The tragic demise of the much-touted Allez Colombieres took the gloss off the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, though it still produced an exciting prospect in Nichols Canyon who had been a smart performer on the Flat for John Gosden two seasons ago. He improved markedly on the level of form that he’d shown on his hurdling bow at Cork – encouragingly jumping better as well – and was value for more than the five-length winning margin on Sunday, simply looking a class apart from his rivals. It was a substandard renewal of the Royal Bond but a rating of 140p should ensure that Nichols Canyon remains competitive in top novice hurdles. The Hatton’s Grace was of less interest from a ratings perspective – though obviously provided a heart-warming story as Sandra Hughes secured a first Grade 1 success – but the opening Grade 3 juvenile hurdle was significant as Kalkir put up a dominant display on his Irish debut and established himself as a leading Triumph Hurdle candidate. He travelled and quickened in the style of one that will prove difficult to beat wherever he turns up, and the Grade 2 at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival is presumably the next target.

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