Ratings Update: Cheltenham Festival 2016

Novice/Juvenile Hurdlers

Willie Mullins enjoyed another outstanding Festival, but it did not start as many thought it would, when his Supreme stranglehold (he was bidding for a fourth successive win in the race) was broken by an outstanding performance from Nicky Henderson’s Altior, who beat Mullins’ much-vaunted Min into second by seven lengths, the widest margin of victory in the race since Back In Front beat Kicking King by ten lengths in 2003. The form had a solid look, with the front three, which also included Henderson’s Buveur d’Air, all having plenty to recommend them going into the race, and Altior’s fifth win of the season saw him equal Douvan’s performance in the race last season from a ratings viewpoint. Altior (now Timeform-rated 167p) looks right out of the top drawer and if all goes well he should make up into a leading contender for the top two mile hurdle races next season, while both Min (153) and Buveur d’Air (152p) both look potentially smart novice chase prospects for next season.

At one point it looked as though Tolworth hurdle winner Yorkhill would line up alongside his stablemate Min in the Supreme, but he was eventually sent to the Neptune to take on Yanworth, who had won the Classic Novices Hurdle on Festival Trials Day impressively in January. Though Yorkhill arguably enjoyed a smoother passage in the Neptune than Yanworth, who was forced wide, there was no doubting Yorkhill’s superiority at the line (also idled when in front) and he is now Timeform-rated 163P. He has many different options for next season, be it a drop back to two miles for the Champion Hurdle (which his trainer mooted after the race), or going over fences. It is worth noting that the pair pulled well clear of the field despite the lack of a strong gallop, and Yanworth (158p) remains a top-notch prospect himself.

The first two of the traditional trio of novice races at the Cheltenham Festival produced some outstanding performances, but the Albert Bartlett took much less winning, with the tough Barters Hill unable to quite match his previous best in this different environment, while the favourite Shantou Village (whose form tied in with Yanworth) was reportedly struck into and the dual Grade 1 winning Long Dog met a sad end when going wrong at an early stage. That said, the winner Unowhatimeanharry has been one of the success stories of the season, winning at Grade 1 level for the first time having started life for Harry Fry on a BHA mark of 123. Unowhatimeanharry is now Timeform-rated 145p, and may well have more to offer given his rapidly progressive profile (reportedly misses Aintree and may head to Punchestown). The second-and-third-placed horses are unexposed at this trip, and Fagan (144) and third-placed Champers On Ice (142) could well progress further in the future, acknowledging that this was a brutal test and they probably won’t want to be turned out too quickly.

There was no stand-out juvenile performer in Britain or Ireland this season, and the Triumph Hurdle had a competitive rather than strong look to it, though the winner – and long-time ante-post favourite – Ivanovich Gorbatov (now Timeform-rated 160p) found plenty of improvement on better ground to score by a length and a quarter, value for more than the winning margin at the line. He is a high-class prospect for next season and he will be hard to beat in similar races at Aintree and Punchestown until then. There will certainly be more races for Apple’s Jade (149p), especially against her own sex, who confirmed Leopardstown superiority over Footpad (149) and was not inconvenienced by less testing conditions.

Novice Chasers

Race two of the Festival, the Arkle Chase, saw Mullins’ first winner of the meeting, and it was certainly one of his most impressive, with last year’s Supreme winner Douvan sauntering to his third successive Grade 1 win over fences with the minimum of fuss and posting an outstanding closing sectional in the process as he quickened clear off a steady gallop. Douvan (168p) didn’t have to improve on his previous form to take this race, and given the way it developed, was more superior than the seven-length gap back to 153-rated Sizing John, who was placed behind the winner for the fifth time. Vaniteux (also rated 153) has a tendency to hit the odd fence, and a blunder here definitely cost him a place. He will need to improve that aspect of his game if he is to fulfil his potential over fences. This race was all about Douvan, though, and he is a most exciting prospect for open races next season; has a chance of putting himself in the truly elite bracket, with ratings in the mid-170s a real possibility.

The RSA had looked a strong renewal on paper going into the race, with the front two in the market made up of top-class hurdler More of That and the impressive and unbeaten chaser No More Heroes, who could have hardly made a better impression during his three chase wins in Ireland over the winter. Unfortunately, neither ran to form, with No More Heroes sadly injuring a tendon (subsequently had to be put down) and More of That – who has had his fair share of physical problems since winning the World Hurdle in 2014 – found to be bleeding post-race. Despite the obvious holes in the form, the first two finishers, the likable Blaklion and Shaneshill (who was previously runner-up in both the Champion Bumper and the Supreme) both improved on their best efforts in this sphere. Though both are likely to struggle at the very top level of this division next season, it is perhaps Shaneshill – now Timeform-rated 151p – who is the best long-term prospect, given he is less exposed and was perhaps better than the bare result here (began his challenge to Blaklion (151) from a long way back).

Perhaps more-so than ever, this season’s JLT felt like an overflow for both the Arkle and the RSA, with Garde La Victoire and L'Ami Serge seemingly swerving Douvan in the former, and the winner Black Hercules kept apart from RSA second Shaneshill (in the same ownership) in the latter. The form, therefore, looks no better than average for this race, and Black Hercules (153p) – who appeals more as a potential high-grade handicapper than a Gold Cup prospect – put up a performance inferior to both of Mullins’ former winners Vautour and Sir des Champs.

Minella Rocco belatedly delivered on the promise he’d shown in two starts over hurdles last season (Timeform-rated 150P in that sphere) in the National Hunt Chase on Tuesday, and he still looks a raw horse to some degree, having been given reminders early on then staying on strongly at the end when his stamina came into play. He is now Timeform-rated 150p over fences, and will be an obvious contender for top long-distance handicaps, the Grand National included, in time. Colin Tizzard’s Native River (now Timeform-rated 147) was unable to reel in the winner after being outpaced turning for home, and should himself have a valuable long-distance handicap in him at some stage provided his temperament holds.

Hurdlers

The absence through injury of the 177-rated Faugheen, as well as last season's runner-up Arctic Fire (168), meant the latest Champion Hurdle was a substandard renewal of the top two-mile hurdle contest of the season. Annie Power proved an able substitute after being supplemented five days before the race for £20,000, not having to improve on her very best form – rated 167p at her previous peak and now 168 – on a rare foray outside races for her own sex (she had been due to have another crack at the Mares’ Hurdle, in which she’d looked set to win prior to falling at the last in 2015, until her late switch).

The placed horses ran well, with My Tent Or Yours now on 167 having been rated 164? going into what was his first start for nearly two years (172 at his best, just before he finished second to Jezki in the 2014 Champion) and Nichols Canyon now on 167 from 160, though they had no excuses on the day. Most of the rest found a well-run race at this level on rather quicker ground than anticipated all too much for them, including fourth The New One (remains on 163) who will reportedly have another crack at the Aintree Hurdle next (narrow second in 2013 and won a year later). The 157-rated Identify Thief lost his ‘p’ as he finished sixth.

The World Hurdle saw a representative field of stayers put to the sword by the season's dominant performer the division, Thistlecrack, who won more decisively than any horse has done in the race this century. Thistlecrack produced a performance – 173 on the bare figures – right up there with the best that Big Buck's or Baracouda managed in the Stayers/World Hurdle, and his new rating of 174p means he’s 8 lb clear of his nearest pursuer in the division (not including More of That), Alpha des Obeaux who showed improved form (previously rated 159) as he finished seven lengths second here.

The pace set by eventual fourth Cole Harden (now 158 from 163) and Knockara Beau, who was pulled up, was good enough to ensure a thorough test of stamina, more so than is sometimes the case in this race. This meant the likes of Saphir du Rheu (157 from 161), Martello Tower (remains on 154) and Kilcooley (161 from 162) paid for their exertions after trying to get the winner in trouble. Veteran Bobs Worth ran much better than when last seen to finish third (improved his hurdles rating from 146 to 153), for all that he was possibly flattered in picking up the pieces late on, while Aux Ptits Soins shaped encouragingly up in grade, either short of stamina or fitness, on his first start since landing the Coral Cup at last year’s Festival. He’s now rated 157p from 149p.

Just as Annie Power proved a very able deputy for Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle, Vroum Vroum Mag fulfilled the same role for Annie Power in the Mares’ Hurdle. The Mares’ Hurdle is always the deepest, most competitive mares' race of the season, bringing together the best from Britain and Ireland. Although the form of the latest renewal taken at face value is nothing flash, with some of the higher-rated ones in the field such as last year’s second and third, Polly Peachum (146 from 150) and Bitofapuzzle (143 from 149), disappointing, it was won by a potentially high-class mare in Vroum Vroum Mag. Vroum Vroum Mag didn’t need to improve to win by two and three quarter lengths – she went into the race rated 151P but only had to run to around 140 (she has had her ‘P’ downgraded to a small ‘p’ though) – to give her trainer Willie Mullins his eighth win on the spin in this race. Desert Queen ensured a true gallop that made for a good test at the trip, which suited 80/1-shot Pass The Time, though it still wasn’t enough to help her snatch a place ahead of Rock On The Moor and Legacy Gold, themselves huge prices at 66/1 and 40/1 respectively, after the unfortunate last-flight fall of The Govaness, who sustained fatal injuries.

Chasers

Many people’s highlight of this season’s Festival will have been Sprinter Sacre regaining the Champion Chase, which he first won in 2013 when putting up the second-highest jumps rating in Timeform’s history. Though he was still around two stone below that level this time around (the proximity of the fourth, fifth and sixth hold down the form somewhat), this was the best Timeform rating he had run to since the 2012/13 season, where he completed a rare hat-trick of wins at the top level at the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown Festivals. This was a remarkable – and emotional – victory and training performance, Sprinter Sacre is now Timeform-rated 175, higher than the odds-on Un de Sceaux (174+) who had his unbeaten record (when completing) over fences ended. Though it is fair to say things didn’t all go Un de Sceaux’s way (unable to dominate due to presence of Special Tiara) he probably wouldn’t have reversed the result if things had panned out differently, and was perhaps not quite at his best on the day for whatever reason.

This year’s Ryanair went from a below-par renewal to a rock-solid one in the blink of an eye when Vautour (Timeform-rated 180p) was controversially rerouted from the Gold Cup, and he blew away the rest of the field in some style, easily dispatching a trio of top-class chasers in Valseur Lido (165), Road To Riches (168) and Al Ferof (168). It is hard to see Vautour being beaten at this sort of trip, and it will be interesting to see him take on the likes of Don Cossack and Cue Card back at around three miles.

After Vautour had offered a further boost to the outstanding renewal of the last King George, Cue Card and Don Cossack – who would have made up the 1-2-3 in that race if Don Cossack had not fallen two out – were unsurprisingly sent off at the head of the market for a stellar renewal of the Gold Cup, which was only lacking the presence of last year’s winner Coneygree and Ryanair-bound Vautour. Don Cossack – who Timeform rated as the winner in the King George – confirmed his status as the best staying chaser in training, though unfortunately the triple-crown seeking Cue Card was denied his crack at the winner as he fell three out when still travelling powerfully. There were niggling stamina doubts about Cue Card (Timeform-rated 181) coming into this race, and in Timeform’s opinion Don Cossack (remains on 183) would have been able to fend him off up the hill, though Cue Card was rated as finishing second, which would of course have been a good performance. Djakadam’s 175-rated performance (matching his best) would have been enough to see him win many other ordinary renewals, and he too emerged with plenty of credit in finishing second in successive Gold Cups.

Handicappers

Some of the more notable performances in handicaps came from the likes of Un Temps Pour Tout (161p) in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the first day, where he belatedly matched the pick of his high-class hurdles form over fences, and beat fellow former top-level winner Holywell (159) into second. Un Temps Pour Tout should be capable of winning pure graded races over fences, as should Empire of Dirt (149) who seemed to relish the faster conditions when producing a career-best effort in the Festival Plate on Wednesday, while Cause of Causes (154) made it back-to-back Festival wins in the Kim Muir and now looks very well-treated ahead of a tilt at the Grand National, given the way he surged clear by twelve lengths (now second behind The Last Samuri on our adjusted ratings for Aintree).