Supreme Novices' Hurdle preview: Jonbon should take plenty of beating

The 2022 running of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is shaping up to be a vintage renewal, much like that in 2016 when Altior beat Min and Buveur d’Air. That race was dominated by Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and it could easily be the same story this year. Mullins has won the Supreme five times since 2013, and a record seven times in all, while Henderson has been successful four times, most recently with Shishkin four years after Altior.

Henderson’s first horse to announce his Supreme claims was Jonbon, who had already made a name for himself before he even set foot over hurdles – not only did he cost J.P. McManus £570,000 after winning his point in Ireland, but he is also a full brother to Douvan, himself winner of the Supreme in 2015 before becoming a top-class chaser.

Impressive wins before Christmas at Newbury and Ascot, the latter the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle, showed that Jonbon had a couple of the key attributes for a Supreme winner, namely speed and fluent jumping. Jonbon was then more workmanlike when maintaining his unbeaten record in the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock in January, but the way that race developed wasn't really conducive to an impressive display and he still needed to show smart form to concede weight all around in a good field.

Crucially, Jonbon is yet to run in a truly-run contest over hurdles, but he promises to be more effective in a race run at a proper gallop and the Supreme should offer him just such an opportunity.

Since running at Haydock, Jonbon has been leap-frogged in the ante-post betting by stable companion Constitution Hill.

Narrowly beaten in his only Irish point and, unlike Jonbon, put straight over hurdles without running in a bumper, Constitution Hill has been hugely impressive with two wide-margin wins at Sandown. Constitution Hill gave a 14-length beating to favourite Might I on his debut in December, with the runner-up going on to finish third behind Jonbon at Haydock, and he followed up on still softer ground in the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle the following month, again quickening up in fine style to pull clear.

That was a smart performance and the large ‘P’ attached to his Timeform rating denotes that Constitution Hill is still open to significant improvement.

Whilst Henderson has two leading contenders to go to war with in this year’s Supreme, Mullins is responsible for no fewer than eight of the 17 remaining entries, though his pair with the strongest form credentials, Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard, are likely to be split up with them one of waiting 24 hours for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. That muddies the waters somewhat, but whichever horse lines up here will command the utmost respect.

Sir Gerhard, for example, is Timeform’s highest-rated novice hurdler in training after making it two from two in this division with a decisive victory in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Sent off the 13/8-on favourite on that occasion, Sir Gerhard didn’t appear to face as straightforward a task as those odds would suggest – and he probably made life even more difficult for himself with some sloppy jumping – but the way he kept up the gallop to beat Three Stripe Life by six lengths identified him as novice hurdler potentially out of the very top drawer.

Unlike his chief market rivals, Sir Gerhard is proven at Cheltenham as well having won the Champion Bumper at last year’s Festival and it could be a sign of intent if he gets the nod to run here. After all, he is shorter in the ante-post betting for the Ballymore as things stand, so it would be a bold call to pass up what many consider to be his best chance of a Festival success.

Stablemate Dysart Dynamo also heads to Cheltenham unbeaten having won both his bumpers before running out a wide-margin winner of both his starts over hurdles this season.

Dysart Dynamo looked an exciting prospect when easily winning a maiden at Cork in December and confirmed that in no uncertain terms when following up in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown last time, a race won by the same stable’s Vautour and Douvan on the way to winning the Supreme. He simply galloped his rivals into submission from the front, his jumping tidier than on his debut over hurdles whilst still leaving room for improvement, though the overall impression was impressive.

Dysart Dynamo also has the option of the Ballymore, but the Supreme looks the better option for him given his style of racing.

Of the other entries from Closutton, Bring On The Night, El Fabiolo and State Man are all lightly-raced maiden winners open to any amount of improvement. They all look to have big futures, though their lack of experience in a race as fiercely competitive as this must be a slight concern. After all, it’s worth pointing out all bar one of Mullins’ past Supreme winners had previously raced in graded company over hurdles, the only exception being Ebaziyan back in 2007.

That statistic also counts against Kilcruit, who was beaten on his first two starts in maiden company over hurdles before getting off the mark in a similar event at Punchestown last time, but the form he showed in bumpers last season underlines that he is well capable of making an impact at the top level.

Beaten just half a length into second after conceding first run to Sir Gerhard in last year’s Champion Bumper, Kilcruit went on to reverse that form at the Punchestown Festival in emphatic fashion, again promising much for his novice campaign over hurdles. Admittedly, his jumping career didn’t get off to the best of starts, but the manner of his victory at Punchestown last time suggests he is starting to get his act together and he shouldn’t be underestimated.

Gordon Elliott caused a surprise with Labaik at 20/1 in the 2017 Supreme and he has a couple of entries whose form entitles them to a crack at this race, namely Mighty Potter and Three Stripe Life.

Mighty Potter and Three Stripe Life fought out the finish of the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown in December, with victory going to the younger of the pair by a length and a half. Mighty Potter has been given a break since and this has reportedly been his target all season, so he is one to keep on the right side with further progress on the cards.

As for Three Stripe Life, he ran another sound race when finding only Sir Gerhard too good back at Leopardstown last time, a race in which the first three pulled a long way clear of the rest. Fourth in last year’s Champion Bumper, Three Stripe Life is clearly a smart novice, but his limitations are starting to look exposed compared to some of those he’ll meet at Cheltenham.

Similar comments apply to I Like To Move It and Shallwehaveonemore, the pair who have achieved the most of the other British-trained entries.

I Like To Move It showed improved form when making his handicap debut in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time, rallying well to be beaten just a short head. He was clearly well suited by the demands of that race, but whether he’ll be quite so effective in this environment remains to be seen and even his best form leaves him with plenty to find. He also holds an entry in the County Hurdle and that would appear a more suitable target at this stage.

Shallwehaveonemore is also entered in the County and the Supreme would certainly look a step too far for him against the very best novices around. He ran well in defeat when filling the runner-up spot in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle last time, but his ongoing keenness is perhaps hindering his progress and he simply had no answer to the winner’s gutsy finish at Kempton.

The remainder are all trading at 50/1 or bigger and, in truth, it will be a surprise if this goes to something outside of the first three or four in the betting. Running plans for the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard are still up in the air, which makes things tricky, but Nicky Henderson has a very strong hand of his own to play, with lots to like about both Constitution Hill and Jonbon.

Constitution Hill has been very impressive in winning by wide margins under conditions conducive to such results, but Jonbon, available at a bigger price in most places, hasn’t put a foot wrong so far either. Although just workmanlike in victory at Haydock last time, Jonbon looks tailormade for the sort of race the Supreme often turns out to be, and he is fancied to raise his game further to come out on top in what promises to be a thrilling contest.

Recommendation:

Back Jonbon at 4/1 in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday