St Leger: A first look at the declared runners

By Keith Melrose — published 11th September 2014

In the first of a new series, Keith Melrose gives a first reaction to the final field for the St Leger.

Now we know that one of 14 horses will engrave their name into racing history by winning the final classic of the 2014 season, a season that is already being recognised for its extraordinary crop of three-year-olds.

That said, this year’s Leger has a slightly substandard feel overall. Derby runner-up Kingston Hill has already passed the 123 barrier which marks the recent par for Leger winners, though behind him one struggles to see a horse of that standard on known evidence.

Kingston Hill is rated 125 and a performance right up to that figure would probably see him win. Doubts have been planted, mostly on ground but that doesn’t ring true. The ground on Derby day was good to firm and any weakness on faster surfaces are surely relative, Kingston Hill being a galloper in style.

It’s that running style which has muted a concern that is perhaps more relevant: stamina. Kingston Hill isn’t actually bred to stay an extended 14 furlongs. Neither his dam nor sire went that far, nor did his most prominent sibling Ramona Chase, who is by High Chaparral. That Kingston Hill will get home on Saturday should be taken as an implication from his previous runs, not an assumption.

If you’re a Kingston Hill fan, the advice would be to hold back for now. With ground concerns, justified or otherwise, bound to grow if the weather forecast holds, the feeling is that prices of 3/1 and higher will appear between now and post time.

It’s common in a mature ante-post market that some more speculative suggestions crop up in the week or so leading up to the race itself. In this St Leger Kings Fete has been the main theory. It’s true that you’d rate him a better prospect than Forever Now and Alex My Boy based on their meeting at Goodwood, though it was stamina that Kings Fete seemed to fail for and that will of course be tested even more sternly in a Group 1 over a slightly longer trip.

In the context of Saturday’s race, Alex My Boy emerges as perhaps the best outsider. He has more stamina than he’s been able to show, more stamina than even a St Leger will reveal, and you fancy this test will draw improvement from him. He wouldn’t need to progress by a great deal to make the frame.

As we approach the Leger, the point made in the last week’s ante-post piece still stands in theory. If we’re to have anything approaching an up-to-standard renewal, the winner is likely to come from Kingston Hill, Snow Sky, Romsdal and Windshear, probably in that order of ability. Windshear was the selection at the time and if you’re on at 10/1 the booking of Richard Hughes will have buoyed you, though his current best price of 8/1 feels like a tasty medium rather than a succulent rare.

Snow Sky could easily be well-done come the time of the race. As second favourite he’s the default beneficiary of a Kingston Hill drift and has been strong in the betting in his own right in recent days. You should therefore waste little time in backing him if he’s your selection. Any subsequent regrets can probably be addressed with an in-running lay- it’d be a surprise if Snow Sky doesn’t go shorter during the race.

The good news for followers of the ante-post piece is there is no bet now available on the St Leger that is more appealing than the ticket you now hold. If you’re not on yet, the tentative recommendation would be a small each-way bet on Alex My Boy, who fits the profile of so many horses that excel themselves in the St Leger. As I write this, sponsors Ladbrokes are offering a standout 16/1. More modern-minded punters would be nudged towards a back-to-lay of Snow Sky, if you can get anything around 6.0 with a view to laying off at a bit less than half of that.

St Leger: Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings

138 Kingston Hill

134 Snow Sky

132 Romsdal

132 Somewhat

131 Windshear

127p Alex My Boy

126 Forever Now

125p Kings Fete

125 Hartnell

124 Marzocco

124 Scotland