Melbourne Cup: Mark Milligan's view

Is Vauban a worthy favourite?

Mark Milligan: Yes, I think he is. There's 20-odd runners, as you always get with the Melbourne Cup, but it's not that competitive outside the top six or seven in the market.

Vauban goes there with one of the best set of form credentials that an international raider has ever had for this race.

But of course that's reflected in the market. He's been very, very strong in the market over the last five or six weeks. One note of caution is that, when you look at his position in the market, international favourites have a woeful record in the Melbourne Cup. But he could well be a handicap blot off 8-9. He absolutely slammed Absurde at Ascot in the style of a Group horse in a handicap and he fully backed that up at Naas in Group 3 company. He's got a very strong chance - the only knock is the price.

Will Absurde get closer?

MM: Yes, I think he'll get closer. And anyone who watches Hong Kong racing will know that Zac Purton is an absolutely outstanding jockey - he's probably in the top five in the world. Joao Moreira used to absolutely dominate Hong Kong racing and Zac Purton went over there and wrestled that mantle off Joao Moreira and he's right up there with the very best in the world.

Absurde is on better terms [than when beaten by Vauban at Royal Ascot] and has a chance but his price is starting to go a bit as well.

What are the alternatives?

MM: You've got last year's winner Gold Trip who has had a very busy preparation. The problem with Gold Trip is the ground - the ground is drying out all the time. He's at his best with cut in the ground, there's even the possibility he may not run if it gets much quicker so that's one to keep an eye on.

The horse I like is the ex-Simon and Ed Crisford horse: Without A Fight. He's got a real turn of foot.

Now, he ran in the Melbourne Cup last year but the ground would have been too soft and he also had a wide trip. Interestingly, Mark Zahra has decided to ride him in preference to last year's winner Gold Trip.

He's unproven over two miles but I don't think last season's Melbourne Cup was the race to judge him on in terms of whether he stays two miles or not. This will be much more his bag. For a stayer he's got a really, really sharp turn of foot and I could see him mowing down some of his stronger-staying rivals in the last furlong, particularly if, as looks likely, he gets his favoured fast ground.

Mullins would have few better chances to win the Melbourne Cup than this one?

MM: If he doesn't win it this year he's probably never going to win it. With Vauban everything is set up for a big run. I've opposed him purely on value terms more than anything else. It's not going to be any sort of shock if Vauban goes and wins - he could win by four or five lengths, I don't think that will surprise anyone. Willie Mullins will never get a better chance.

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