Jamie Lynch's Epsom Derby Preview

The pressure felt by racehorses is in body rather than mind, which is a blessing for Australia, given the burden of expectation put on him from day one right through to his status as red-hot favourite for Saturday's Derby at Epsom.

First was parental expectations and the pressure that comes with an illustrious pedigree, because Australia is by Galileo, the 2001 Derby winner, and out of Ouija Board, who was successful in the fillies’ equivalent, the Oaks, in 2004. If ever a horse was bred for the top job at Epsom, it’s Australia.

The second cross he’s had to bear is the statement made last year by Aidan O’Brien that “we always thought he was the best horse we’ve ever had.” That’s a remarkable endorsement from a trainer who’s won the Derby four times, including with Galileo. Admittedly, there have been many others about whom O’Brien has talked the talk, but most of them have indeed walked the walk.

The upshot of his superstar billing, comprising nature and nurture, is that judgements of Australia are invariably influenced, distorting the true picture. If the racing community was a jury, we’d have to be discharged on grounds of prior bias. The insider conviction in Australia shouldn’t lead to outsider’s conviction of Australia. The talking horse has yet to speak up.

The major cross-examination so far came at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas, where he was like a footballer playing out of position in terms of both the conditions – a bare mile shouldn’t suit him by rights – and where he raced, on the opposite side of the track from the first two home.

That he was beaten less than a length that day, in adverse circumstances, is a measure of his would-be talent, and the high quality of the race was underlined by runner-up Kingman going one better, in some style by five lengths, in the Irish version.

The Guineas was effectively an away fixture for Australia, but now, theoretically at least, he’s on home territory; the very territory on which his esteemed parents had their career-defining moment in the Derby and Oaks.

Some Derby winners are born great, others achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them. Bred if not born great, Australia is ready and able to achieve greatness in the Derby, and the only thrust may be his in the long Epsom straight as he leaves his rivals behind.

Regards the opposition, the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer might well be applicable to Australia, whose stable-companions could pose the biggest threat. Orchestra, another son of Galileo, looked a big improver when he won a recognised Derby trial at Chester, the same trial landed by his trainer’s 2013 Derby winner Ruler of The World, while the vibes are strong for Geoffrey Chaucer, who’s unlucky not to be unbeaten so far.

Both have the makings of Group 1 colts, but neither have the potential of Australia, nor his standard of form, the top-rated horse in the race by Timeform.    

Saturday is all about the Derby, and the Derby is all about Australia. Throughout history, philosophers have contemplated the meaning of life, but for Australia it’s simple: he was bred to win the Derby, and everything has been leading to this date with destiny. In future, in horseracing, it may be 7^th June rather than 26^th January that’s known as Australia Day.    

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Last Saturday's winners included Top Boy @ Betfair SP of 16.79 and Steps at 9.25!