French Derby Preview: Class of 2013 to rule again

The rivalry between Britain (specifically England) and France has developed in the same direction as Benjamin Button. What started with the bloody raids of power-hungry kings, centuries of war and wars that lasted centuries, has descended into something more like sibling rivalry; petty squabbles. The French can still lay claim to some blood in the British royal family, while a greater number of French words have permeated the English dictionary (a result of the aforementioned throne-swapping, incidentally), but the round on sporting heritage is scored firmly in Britain’s favour.

Being regarded as ‘The Home of’ so many global pastimes is rightly a source of pride for the UK, but it’s also a bind. It dictates that Wimbledon will always be on grass, the Open Championship unfailingly by the sea, the Derby forever 12 furlongs over an unorthodox track, lest the last vestiges of the Empire disintegrate.

The French don’t have this problem. Indeed, within the last 10 years they have adapted their Derby, the Prix du Jockey Club, to the times by cutting the race's distance. Most Derby winners never race beyond one and a half miles, so why rush them up to that trip by early-June in their three-year-old season?

The switch to an extended 10 furlongs for the French Derby has changed the complexion of the race, making it an alternative to Epsom as opposed to a backup. See this year’s leading British challenger, Dante winner The Grey Gatsby. He wasn’t even entered in the Derby when he won at York, reflective of his dubious stamina. Sunday’s race, at nine yards longer than the Dante, offers a more realistic test of The Grey Gatsby’s staying power. Still, there’s every reason to view him as a substandard Dante winner and you’d fear for the French three-year-olds were he to prove capable of winning this.

Since Shamardal won the first renewal over the race’s new trip, every French Derby winner has been trained by the natives. Unless The Grey Gatsby exceeds expectations, 2014 will almost certainly come in on-trend.

Likeliest according to the betting is Prince Gibraltar. It’s a conclusion that’s difficult to argue with outright, though the evidence for him being so short is circumstantial. His win in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, for example, came under very testing conditions and he had been the only one to race on the stand rail. The form of his win in the Prix Greffulhe is equally uninspiring, though at least there the visual impression of his success was undeniable, the way he travelled all over the likes of Earnshaw and Nolohay suggesting they’ll have plenty on to reverse the form.

Just as the 2000 Guineas is becoming the strongest signifier for the Derby, the Poule d’Essai des Poulains ought to be the Prix du Jockey Club’s definitive marker. Three make the short trip north from Longchamp to Chantilly, including winner Karakontie and runner-up Prestige Vendome. However it’s the other- fifth-placed Galiway- that interests us most.

The argument is not strictly on ability, as it’s reckoned that Karakontie and Prestige Vendome will be Galiway’s equal in that regard; more on potential. Galiway’s pedigree (by Galileo from a family made up largely of milers by speedier sires) demands a try at middle distances, a cry that has belatedly been heeded after the Poulains. Galiway was off the bridle before most that day but stuck to his task and wasn’t losing touch with the principals come the finish, the ground (less than three lengths to winner Karakontie) having been conceded as others quickened more readily.

With neither Karakontie nor Prestige Vendome (half-brother to 2012 Poulains winner Style Vendome) having such a promising pedigree for the trip, Galiway very much enters calculations for this rematch. Does he have a better chance than either of that pair? Probably not. Should he be twice the price of Prestige Vendome and nearly three times that of Karakontie? Again, probably not.

Plenty of the others are stepping up in grade and have to prove themselves accordingly as far as Timeform ratings are concerned. The exception would be Free Port Lux, whose defeat of emerging Derby fancy Adelaide in the Prix Hocquart last time catches the eye. The drawback with Free Port Lux is stamina, too much of it in his case as he needed virtually all of 11 furlongs to see off Adelaide. In a pre-Shamardal Prix du Jockey Club he’d have had a chance, though you feel it’s asking a lot for him to improve another chunk despite the drop in trip.

The approach to betting on this year’s French Derby is one of small gains. Small gains because, in truth, the market looks to have the gist of it; no ‘gaffes’. There are still a couple of niggling errors we can exploit: Prince Gibraltar is too short on the facts, though on insinuation he could be very good so isn’t advised to any besides the most devoted layers. A better speculation looks to be a small win bet on Galiway, who has a similar profile to 2013 winner Intello, as well as the same connections- and the names of Fabre, Peslier and Wertheimer have the sort of sporting pedigree that even the Brits would envy.

Recommendation:

Back Galiway in the Prix du Jockey Club

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:

131   Karakontie

130   Prestige Vendome

128p Prince Gibraltar

127   The Grey Gatsby           

123   Mr Pommeroy

123   Free Port Lux

123   Galiway

120    Earnshaw

119    Nolohay

118    Aventador