Comparing two-year-olds: The Swing-ometer

While Pretty Pollyanna rose to the top of the fillies’ class of two-year-olds through a combination of class and grit, toughing things out from the front in both the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes and Prix Morny, the two colts rated slightly higher, Calyx and Too Darn Hot (118p compared to 118), are both yet to really feel the warmth of the whip.

That trio are yet to be joined strictly on ratings by Ten Sovereigns, however his 114P figure suggests that it is only a matter of time, with the Middle Park Stakes later this month nominated as his next port of call. But how does this generation of starlets compare with those of recent years at the same stage of their careers?

The image below shows the best two-year-old performances of each of the placed horses in the last ten renewals of the 2000 Guineas, as well their best performances before September 1 that year.

As you can see from any of the different coloured dots that overlap, just three out of 30 (all placed) had already produced their best effort of the season by now, while winners Makfi (2010) and Night of Thunder (2014) hadn't yet run. Hermival (2012), Van Der Neer (2013), Barney Roy (2017) and Al Wukair (2017) were all placed in the Guineas but hadn't seen the racecourse by the September of their two-year-old campaigns.

Indeed, only Canford Cliffs (2010), Ivawood (2015) and 2013 winner Dawn Approach had run to the 114 rating achieved by Ten Sovereigns last week.

More recently, Saxon Warrior only made his debut in late-August last year, though by the end of October, he was rated 120. He’s not progressed significantly in four winless starts since his winning reappearance, however, and it makes more sense when looking at horses with great potential to compare them primarily to potentially the greatest ever: Frankel.

Following a winning debut at Newmarket, Frankel produced an excellent timefigure when recording a 13 (or as the vidiprinter says, thirteen) length victory in a three-runner minor event at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, after which he was rated 115P.

That figure is in the same ball park as those produced by Ten Sovereigns and Too Darn Hot last week, but the circumstances were very different. Frankel produced his when beating newcomer Rainbow Springs (who only showed useful form once in six subsequent starts) and Diamond Springs, who was fairly useful at best.

Timeform have rated Too Darn Hot and Calyx the same on 118p.
Which is better in your view?
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— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) September 5, 2018

All five of Too Darn Hot’s Solario rivals had shown useful form, four of them in pattern/listed company, all contributing to a performance rating that was better than that of his stablemate Kingman, who also won the race on his second start. Fellow Clarehaven resident Raven’s Pass, who already had a listed victory under his belt when winning the Solario in 2007, beat subsequent Royal Lodge winner City Leader by seven lengths, so it’s no surprise that his performance rated higher on 122.

Ten Sovereigns, meanwhile, powered clear of a horse who was rated just 66p going into the Round Tower Stakes. There was an awful lot of style about that win – smartly into stride and quickly putting the race to bed two out without jockey Donnacha O’Brien using the whip – but there is clearly more substance behind Too Darn Hot’s Sandown win.

For context, after subsequent wins in the Royal Lodge and Dewhurst , Frankel ended his two-year-old season with a rating of 133p, ultimately going on to be rated Timeform’s highest ever horse – 147 – after his Queen Anne win two years later.

But Frankel wasn’t the best two-year-old in Timeform’s 70-year history.

Celtic Swing’s 12-length romp in the 1994 Racing Post Trophy earned him a rating of 138, his wide-margin soft-ground win backed up by a 138 timefigure; he never repeated that effort, but did go on to finish second in the 2000 Guineas the following spring, before winning the French Derby.

The key part, as ever, is timing.

Frankel produced his best two-year-old effort in the Royal Lodge at the end of September; Celtic Swing his in October’s Racing Post Trophy.

While early-season two-year-old efforts – such as Calyx’s electric Coventry win – light the fire about what that year’s crop of juveniles could be capable of, it’s only until later this month – and next – that you tend to get the real superstars showing their mettle and really stoking the Classic fires.

The British Group 1s run over seven furlongs or more over the next couple of months – the Dewhurst at Newmarket and Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster – backed up by the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and Royal Lodge at Newmarket will reveal much more. Similarly, the National Stakes and the Group 2 Beresford Stakes, both run at the Curragh, will help illuminate the pecking order at Ballydoyle for those horses who don’t travel over the Irish Sea.

Until those races have been run, safe in the knowledge that the last ten winners of the 2000 Guineas hadn't run up to their best as a two-year-old at this stage of the season, it makes sense to hold fire on those Classic bets. Instead, relish the untapped potential of these two-year-olds before some bubbles are inevitably burst, most likely by horses we haven’t even seen on the racecourse yet.