Cesarewitch: A first look at the declared runners

It’s a negative that Swnymor, Joe Rendall's ante-post selection, has been drawn 34 of 36 in the Cesarewitch, one of the very few races in which you can find your selection in stall 34.

That’s an admission we need to make right at the start. The Timeform approach is generally to start in the position of the contrarian and invite the evidence to move you from there. Simon Rowlands will be along soon with the quantitative analysis of the draw, though for now empiricism alone can tell us that those drawn high in the Cesarewitch feature in the finish less often than those drawn low. The effect is relatively mild in an 18-furlong race with only one bend, but is nevertheless real. It is a negative that Swynmor has been drawn 34 of 36, but just how negative I’ll leave to Simon to relay.

Ray Ward (drawn 32) and Rhombus (35) have also suffered in the draw. Others have too, of course, though that pair and Swnymor will have the greatest effect on the market.

There will be plenty of interest in what happens to Quick Jack as a result of his relatively friendly draw in stall 12. The doubts that you suspect kept him from being a hot favourite ante-post have all disappeared now: ground, participation and draw. Richard Hughes has also been booked. With all those factors in place, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Quick Jack go off around the 4/1 mark. First-show prices are often too roughly translated from the ante-post market, so if you’re toying with backing Quick Jack it’s recommended you move now.

The Cesarewitch has adopted a reserve system, which remains a thorny issue in Britain. First alternate here is See And Be Seen, who won the official trial for this race a few weeks back and would break from stall 6 were he to sneak in. His overall profile would probably merit being shorter than 25/1, though as with Quick Jack you feel there’s an unnecessary hangover from the ante-post market factored in. The recommendation, to move now if you’re so inclined, is the same.

At similar prices you can get one that, though not as progressive, is well-drawn and bound to run a solid race. Communicator has wide-ranging experience, having previous in late-season Newmarket handicaps (second and fifth in last two runnings of the November Handicap) and also top-staying races after finishing third in the Chester Cup. He runs off the same mark here having placed since at the Shergar Cup and in the Old Borough Cup.

All of that paints a picture of a horse that mightn’t be well enough handicapped to win a race like the Cesarewitch, but we’ve seen before that stamina, a high cruising speed and a clear run are among the most important factors in this race and we reckon Communicator scores highly enough on all of those to warrant an each-way bet.

The other plus is that, unlike in the case of Quick Jack or See And Be Seen, you needn’t act right now. Some firms are bound to offer favourable place terms nearer the time and it’s unlikely that Communicator’s price will collapse before Saturday. He’s a good insurance option if you’re worried about Swnymor’s draw.

Recommendation:

0.5pt each-way Communicator @ 25/1