Epsom classics: Sectional timing analysis

The build-up to this year’s Derby in the media seemed even more intense than usual, largely due to the unusual circumstances that saw the race staged four weeks later than scheduled and in front of empty stands.

At least sort some of normality was expected to return once the stalls opened on Saturday and, in many ways, it did. It was certainly no surprise to see an outsider trained by Aidan O’Brien making the running, whilst it wasn’t unexpected that the winner would also hail from Ballydoyle, in the process providing O’Brien with a record-breaking eighth success in the race.

However, the fact that the identity of those two horses – the front-runner and the winner – was the same did give cause for surprise, with Serpentine and Emmet McNamara making just about every yard of the running to win by five and a half lengths in a result which will ensure that this year’s Derby continues to generate more discussion in the days and weeks to come.

Absolutely remarkable.

Serpentine only won for the first time seven days ago. He's just made all the running to land the @Investec Derby!

A record eight victories in the most famous Classic of them all for Aidan O'Brien 👏 @EpsomRacecourse #InvestecDerbyDay pic.twitter.com/EMvUpwyprX

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) July 4, 2020

In truth, the writing was on the wall from some way out, most notably at the path on the entrance to the straight, roughly around three and a half furlongs from the winning post. At this stage, sectional timing analysis shows that Serpentine had extended his advantage over the chasing pair of Khalifa Sat and Amhran Na Bhfian to around 13 lengths (roughly 2.1 seconds), while the market leaders, English King and Kameko, were a further five or six lengths back.

Incidentally, it’s worth pointing out that these figures are based on Timeform’s manually recorded sectional times that are established by video analysis, a process that is used daily in the continued absence of official, and reliable, sectionals.

Timeform also produced sectional times for the Oaks, run over the same C&D as the Derby just 75 minutes earlier, and analysis of the data compiled for both races makes for an interesting comparison.

The Oaks featured two horses, Passion and Tiempo Vuela, who appeared to go off hard from the start. At least that was the visual impression they created in pulling clear of the field, but sectionals reveal that the pair ran the first five furlongs only a couple of lengths faster than Serpentine did in the Derby. And, whilst Serpentine was still only around three and a half lengths clear of the remainder at that stage, Passion and Tiempo Vuela had extended their advantage over the other runners in the Oaks to roughly 15 lengths.

The next phase (from 5f to the path at 8.5f) of both races saw some interesting developments which almost certainly had a significant impact on the result in each instance.

Ennistymon and her jockey Seamie Heffernan were the key players in the Oaks. She was just about last after five furlongs and around 19 lengths behind the leaders, but Heffernan asked her to make significant inroads on the inside soon afterwards, quickly moving into a clear third.

By the time the field reached the path, Ennistymon had reduced the deficit to the leaders to around eight lengths having run the previous three and half furlongs or so in 43.25 seconds. Passion (45.10s) and Tiempo Vuela (45.20s) were both much slower through this part of the race, and Ennistymon essentially served to pull the chasing pack back into it.

Ennistymon briefly held the lead inside the final three furlongs, too, but her stablemate Love soon swept by down the outside, quickly forging clear from there to land the spoils by nine lengths. The winner was the fastest horse in the race through each of the last three furlongs and her overall time was 2m 34.06s (117 timefigure, 3 lb sectional upgrade), beating Enable’s record for the race by around 0.07s.

What a superstar!

❤️ Love - 1,000 Guineas and @Investec Oaks double ❤️

🥇 3 Group 1 triumphs
🏆 2 Classic victories
👌 Unbeaten this season
👍 8 Oaks successes for Aidan O'Brien #InvestecDerbyDay @EpsomRacecourse pic.twitter.com/yKl3EN48aW

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) July 4, 2020

As for the Derby, the crucial moment of the race also occurred between 5f and the path at 8.5f. It had been a horse coming from nearly last who recorded the fastest sectional in that part of the Oaks, but it was the front-running Serpentine who achieved that feat amongst the 16 runners who contested the Derby, a move that ultimately proved decisive.

For context, Serpentine ran that section of the race in 43.85s, around 0.60s slower than Ennistymon but much faster than all the other runners in the Derby. Khalifa Sat, who led the chasing pack, was the next fastest with a time of around 45.40 (1.5s slower than Serpentine), whilst key runners English King and Kameko recorded times of around 45.90s (2.1s slower than Serpentine).

It was this aggressive injection of pace by McNamara, as well as the passiveness of those jockeys in behind, which allowed Serpentine to build up his unassailable, 13-length lead.

It’s easy to break down and pinpoint the critical junctures of a race afterwards, but it’s much more challenging for a jockey to do so as it’s happening around them. They are having to make these decisions in real time, often relying on learned experience to better inform those decisions. That their experience in the Derby may have been informed by how the Oaks was run earlier is a point Jamie Lynch made on Sky Sports Racing, and almost certainly has some merit.

Serpentine understandably got tired in the closing stages, recording a finishing speed of 106.4% when par for the course at Epsom is around 111% (Love recorded a finishing speed of 114.4%).

Furthermore, all bar the tailed-off Worthily recorded a faster finishing speed for the final three and a half furlongs than the winner, with English King and Russian Emperor coming home strongest of all (both recorded finishing speeds of 114.9%).

The damage had already been done by then, however, ensuring that Serpentine goes into the history books as the winner of a Derby that won’t be forgotten for any number of reasons.