The Timeform Expert's View: Royal Ascot Day Five

Nap - Merchant Navy, Diamond Jubilee, 4.20 Ascot, Saturday

There’s no doubting that Harry Angel has the best form but it’s also without question that his Ascot form doesn’t match up to the pick of his efforts at other courses, all four of his career defeats having come at the track. As such, it’s worth looking for an alternative and the ex-Australian-trained Merchant Navy fits the bill. His debut for Aidan O’Brien last month promised plenty, successfully conceding weight all round in the Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh. It’s tended to be the case that such types take a few outings to reveal their true ability for the O’Brien yard so it has to be considered really encouraging that Merchant Navy hit the ground running, no surprise at all if he follows up here before reportedly heading back to the other side of the world to take up stallion duties.

Next Best - Beyond Reason, Chesham Stakes, 2.30 Ascot, Saturday

A smaller field than usual for the Chesham and, also unusually, there’s something in the field that’s already shown a level of form similar to that achieved by a typical winner of the race, Natalie’s Joy having run to a huge rating for a newcomer when running away with a maiden at Goodwood last month. It’s sometimes the case that impressive debutant winners from the Johnston yard can recoil from such a big first-time-out effort, however and, at the odds, Beyond Reason makes more appeal. As a daughter of Australia out of an Azamour mare it’s really encouraging that Beyond Reason has shown as much speed as she has in a couple of outings over six furlongs, still really strong at the finish when making all in a minor event at Kempton last time. The time of that race was good and it’s highly likely Beyond Reason will progress again upped to seven furlongs here.  

Longshot - Gilgamesh, Wokingham Stakes, 5.00 Ascot, Saturday

A July Cup entry merely reinforces the suspicion that the unbeaten four-year-old Dreamfield is a pattern performer in a handicap and it probably makes sense to keep him on side to make sure it’s not a losing race if he wins, but it’s hard to recommend him being the sole bet when the top price on offer is around 4/1. His dominance in the market does mean there plenty of fancy prices around for other interesting horses, however, with Gilgamesh making a fair bit of each-way appeal at a general 16/1. He’s still on the upgrade at the age of four and, though he was all out to win over seven furlongs at York on his most recent outing, it’s the drop down to sprinting that makes him so interesting, just the sort of strong-travelling hold-up horse that will thrive under the demands of a race such as the Wokingham. It’s worth having the places on side as well given the enhanced each-way terms that will doubtless be on offer for this race.