St James's Palace Stakes: Wootton well worth a bet

The 2016 renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes was one of the best in recent memory, with the winners of the English (Galileo Gold), Irish (Awtaad) and French (The Gurkha) equivalents of the 2000 Guineas all going head-to-head for the centrepiece on day one of the Royal meeting.

It was ultimately Galileo Gold and Frankie Dettori who had bragging rights on that occasion, but The Gurkha would go on to have the last word when reversing the form in the Sussex Stakes, while Ribchester, who was third at Goodwood, and the filly Minding would also go on to win Group 1s against their elders in what was a vintage year for three-year-old milers.

Fast forward the clock two years and the picture looks rather different, however. This year’s renewal of the St James’s Palace looks set to be without English and French Guineas winners Saxon Warrior and Olmedo, both of whom went on to run in their respective equivalents of the Derby, while many people considered Romanised’s Irish Guineas win to be proof that the Classic generation of milers is a below-average crop this year.

That could well be the case, but it would be unwise to consider Ken Condon’s charge a ‘fluke’ winner that day. A useful two-year-old, Romanised had shaped better than the bare result on his reappearance and took his form to another level on his first try at 1m at the Curragh, doing well to overhaul a trio that raced much closer to the pace and well on top at the line. There were no hard-luck stories on the day and he will be well worth his place here – his second to Masar in last year’s Solario Stakes at Sandown also looks strong form now.

Shock result in the @Tattersalls1766 Irish 2,000 Guineas – Romanised wins for Shane Foley and @kencondonracing! @curraghrace pic.twitter.com/btN082MY8L

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 26, 2018

U S Navy Flag and Gustav Klimt were Romanised’s closest pursuers at the Curragh, with the former’s supporters here likely to be clinging on to how he fared in a busy two-year-old campaign. Indeed, he got better with racing in 2017, recording victories in the Middle Park and Dewhurst towards the end of the season, and the hope is he will do the same again this time round, having improved with each of his three starts so far.

His second at the Curragh represented a return to something like the pick of his juvenile form under a typically aggressive ride, proving 1m is within range by repelling all bar one who came from well back, and he is impossible to put a line through here. Incidentally, his full sister Roly Poly bounced back from defeat in the Classics to record a trio of Group 1 wins last term.

Gustav Klimt ran to a similar level at the Curragh as when sixth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, but did so in contrasting fashion, promising more than he delivered on the most recent occasion, late interference a mere side issue. Having failed to go on from an encouraging victory on return at Leopardstown, he is in danger of becoming disappointing and has a bit to prove now, difficult to recommend here as a result.

Saxon Warrior shows he still has the gears for a mile as the Racing Post Trophy winner makes it Guineas No.9 for Aidan O’Brien.

Japanese sire Deep Impact on the #2000Guineas roll of honour! pic.twitter.com/k3yjt8bkqk

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) May 5, 2018

Tip Two Win was four places ahead of Gustav Klimt at Newmarket, excelling himself up in grade and following two good paydays in Doha with another much closer to home. He holds leading form claims here in the likely absence of Saxon Warrior and Guineas third/Derby winner Masar, and it is hard to see why he is twice the price of Without Parole. John Gosden’s charge is, admittedly, unbeaten in three starts so far and remains with potential, but the form of his latest win in a listed race at Sandown is a long way from what will be required here, and he looks short enough in the betting.

One that does appear to have been underestimated in the market is potential French raider Wootton. Unbeaten in his first three starts, too, including when beating Olmedo in the Prix de Fontainebleau at Longchamp in April, nothing went his way when fourth behind that rival in the French 2000 Guineas last time, pulling hard under restraint in a slowly-run race and keeping on well, all things considered, to be beaten just two lengths.

He had looked a high-class miler in the making prior to that and could have even more to offer if ridden with less restraint here – quotes of 16/1 look very generous, indeed, with this having been confirmed as his likely target towards the end of last month.

Recommendation:

Back Wootton at 16/1 in the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday 19 June