Royal Ascot 2023: Four key clashes

Chaldean vs Paddington – St James’s Palace Stakes, Tuesday 20 June

The St James’s Palace Stakes is a race to settle any arguments as to which horse is the best miler of the classic generation and Chaldean and Paddington, winners of the British and Irish 2000 Guineas, respectively, will hopefully serve up a treat.

Chaldean achieved much more than Paddington as a juvenile, notably winning the Dewhurst Stakes, and he didn’t need to improve much on that effort to win what can only be rated as an average renewal of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. As expected, he had no problem stepping up to a mile, and went about his business in typically straightforward fashion, something that showed him to maximum advantage as the runner-up hung his chance away. The ground will likely be much faster at Royal Ascot, but that shouldn’t pose a problem, and he does set the standard on Timeform ratings.

Paddington was much more lightly raced as a two-year-old, not making his debut until September and breaking his maiden over seven furlongs in soft ground at the Curragh the following month. He has proved himself most progressive this season, too, making a winning return in a heavy-ground handicap at Naas before following up in listed company back at the Curragh.

Paddington then took a big step forward when completing a four-timer in the Irish 2000 Guineas, making his first start in Group 1 company a winning one. He beat the second, third and fourth from the Newmarket equivalent in comprehensive fashion, edging to his left in the closing stages and leaving the impression he had a fair bit more to give if needed. At the prices, he gets the vote to continue his winning run at Royal Ascot.

Bay Bridge vs Luxembourg – Prince of Wales’s Stakes, Wednesday 21 June

Luxembourg has always been held in high regard by Aidan O’Brien and he was one of the leading juveniles in 2021, notably winning the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. He ran an excellent race to finish third in the 2000 Guineas on his return last year, but he missed the chance to contest the Derby after sustaining an injury.

Luxembourg did go on to confirm himself a top-class colt when winning the Irish Champion Stakes later in the season before getting stuck in the mud in the Arc at Longchamp. He left his below-par reappearance well behind when gaining more Group 1 glory in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh recently, beating Bay Bridge by half a length. Ryan Moore dictated the pace that day, but Luxembourg proved very willing to hold off the challenge of the runner-up in the closing stages. 

Following the announcement that Desert Crown will now miss Royal Ascot, Luxembourg and Bay Bridge seem sure to lock horns once again in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. Bay Bridge beat Adayar and My Prospero in the Champion Stakes at Ascot on his final start last season and he came on a bundle for his reappearance in the Prix Ganay at Longchamp when pushing Luxembourg all the way in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Bay Bridge didn't really get the rub of the green on that occasion, failing to settle in the first half of the race and being forced to wait for a gap when still going well early in the straight. He did have every chance to go past Luxembourg, though, so it is hard to call him unlucky on the day, but the pair pulled well clear of the remainder and on that running there isn't much between them. The rematch will certainly be interesting, but it is worth noting that Bay Bridge didn't look totally comfortable on quick ground when runner-up in this race 12 months ago.

Coltrane vs Eldar Eldarov – Gold Cup – Thursday 22 June

In the absence of last year’s superstar stayer Kyprios, who is currently on the sidelines due to injury, the staying division has a relatively open look to it this season, though Coltrane announced himself as a leading player for the Gold Cup with a comprehensive victory on his return to action in the Sagaro Stakes last month.

Coltrane went from strength to strength last season, notable wins coming in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot and Doncaster Cup, while he was only beaten a head behind Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. He turned that form around in no uncertain terms in the Sagaro, looking in fine shape beforehand and establishing himself as a major player for all the top staying races. He drew clear of his rivals in the closing stages like a horse right at the top of his game and, unlike some he will face, his stamina is proven for the marathon trip of the Gold Cup.

Eldar Eldarov, on the other hand, is yet to race beyond two miles – he finished well adrift of Coltrane in the Long Distance Cup on his only try at that trip – but he brings plenty of potential to the table and is another who tasted success at Royal Ascot last season when landing the Queen’s Vase.

Eldar Eldarov went on to win the St Leger at Doncaster later in the campaign and he ran a race full of promise on his return to action over a mile and three-quarters in the Yorkshire Cup last month. He was attempting to concede weight all-round under a Group 1 penalty and he stayed on well in the closing stages like a horse who is well worth a try at this sort of trip. He has the potential to take his form to a new level when having his stamina properly tested and will arrive at Royal Ascot with a cracking chance once again.

Tahiyra vs Mawj – Coronation Stakes, Friday 23 June

This year’s renewal of the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket featured the largest field since 2005 and, though plenty of them were just making the numbers up, Mawj and Tahiyra impressed with the way in which they pulled clear of the remainder, while the timefigure also supports a high view of the form.

Mawj was a useful juvenile who had improved in Dubai earlier in the year and she relished her first try at a mile at Newmarket, proving very game in the finish to overcome the strong-travelling Tahiyra. She proved herself a very smart filly – her performance was one of the best recorded in the 1000 Guineas this century – and Tahiyra advertised the form well by going one place better in the Irish equivalent next time.

Tahiyra didn’t need to reproduce her Newmarket form to record her second top-level success in four starts at the Curragh, but she did it readily, again displaying a smart turn of foot, seeming much more effective back on a sound surface. Conditions should also be more in her favour at Royal Ascot and it will be a fascinating rematch in this year’s Coronation Stakes. Tahiyra is arguably open to more improvement that Mawj given her unexposed profile and she is a short price to reverse the form.