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King Edward VII Stakes 2016: Abdon may prove answer to puzzle

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Posted in: Royal Ascot Tips

The King Edward VII is as tricky as it gets when it comes to ante-post betting at Royal Ascot, as traditionally the contest has been seen as a consolation prize for those who fail to strike gold in the Derby.

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The race, a Group 2 contest open to three-year-olds over a mile and a half, generally comes about two weeks after the Epsom Classic, meaning it’s difficult to know which horses will actually turn out, and which will be left for another day.


Matters are made all the more puzzling by the fact that very few runners from the Derby, if any at all, have lined up for this in recent years, and as a result it is horses with relatively unexposed profiles that have tended to excel.


As you would expect, the Timeform Ratings for this contest are headed by the Derby runners, with US Army Ranger one of five Aidan O’Brien horses at the top of the pile; with Idaho, Deauville and Port Douglas the other four.


US Army Ranger put in a high class performance to finish second to Harzand, and it’s more than likely that the colt will swerve this in favour of a rematch in the Irish Derby at the Curragh instead.


The same can be said for Idaho, who looked very smart in third and will most probably be aimed at Group One races, whilst Port Douglas, Shogun and Deauville were both well beaten, and whilst they would have big chances on their best form, they are big doubts for this.


In terms of the other Derby horses, Wings of Desire would have every chance should he take his chance, but he would have to carry a Group 2 penalty and you feel there’s better options elsewhere, whilst it may come too soon for Across The Stars, Ulysses and Massaat – who were all well beaten.


One Derby runner which is interesting is Humphrey Bogart, who has consistently put in smart performances this season, including when fifth in the Epsom Classic.


The Lingfield Derby Trial winner is highly likeable, and could well be allowed to take his chance for connections who seem keen to campaign him sportingly, having recuperated around half of the fee they paid to supplement him for the Derby.


Two more Derby runners to note are Robin of Navan and Foundation, who both ran in the French equivalent at Chantilly. Both were disappointing, particularly Foundation, who is best watched at the moment – even if he does take his chance in this.


With this contest coming just 13 days after the Derby, it may be sensible to look elsewhere from a betting perspective.


The market is headed by the Aidan O’Brien trained Beacon Rock, who put in a couple of pleasing efforts behind highly progressive sorts Harzand and Moonlight Magic, before running out a comfortable winner of a Group 3 contest at the Curragh.


However, he’s only posted useful form to date, and there are a few lesser raced types that make more appeal at the moment.


One of those is Abdon, trained by Sir Michael Stoute – who won this three years ago with Hillstar. He’s a half-brother to the smart Berkshire, a Royal Ascot winner himself, and looks a progressive sort judged by his two runs so far.


The colt built on an impressive debut win by finishing second in a Listed contest at Newmarket in April after a long absence. He showed greenness when behind the more experienced Hawkbill that day, and with plenty more to come, he looks an ideal type for this and can turn the tables on that rival.


Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand for this race, and his best chance could well come through Housesofparliament. The colt looked useful when building on a taking win in a maiden at Dundalk in April to finish third in the Dee Stakes at Chester.


He was disappointing last time out in a muddling Group 3 at the Curragh, but he had looked progressive up until that point and can be given another chance should he take his chance here.


In a wide open contest, a tentative vote go to the progressive and attractively priced Abdon, who looks likely to be trading at far shorter on the day.


Click here to back Abdon at 14/1 for the King Edward VII Stakes 


 


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