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Royal Ascot

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Royal Ascot 2019: David Johnson's Lucky 15

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Posted in: Royal Ascot Tips

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With Royal Ascot on the horizon, Timeform's Flat Editor David Johnson has put together a Lucky 15, which features a 33/1 selection.

Given how competitive day of race markets at the big Festivals are, getting stuck into the shorties ante-post might not be the wisest approach, so I’ve looked to come up with four selections that look overpriced at slightly bigger odds.


We’ll know what sort of position we are in after leg one, as the selection in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes is the biggest price of the four I’m putting up. Di Fede has been to the Royal meeting twice in her career to date, well held in the Chesham and finishing seventh in last year’s Sandringham, but there’s no denying her liking for Ascot, as she showed with a career-best effort when winning a 7f listed race there on her final start last season. That form has by and large worked out, and it seems her come out third-top on the adjusted Timeform ratings. She can have her reappearance at Chester ignored given where she ended up and while she doesn’t have the profile/connections of some in the race, she’s no 33/1 chance on form.


  
 

Next up comes a bet in the Hunt Cup in the shape of New Graduate and while he’s already towards the head of the betting, he has the potential to shorten further. He looks to have loads going for him, having had just four starts to date, shaping well on each one, and was most impressive when running out a wide-margin winner at Ripon on his reappearance. Backed that day as if defeat was out of the question, that form could not be working out better, the third and fourth both won their next outings while the runner-up was third in the Victoria Cup at Ascot before winning at Chester after that. New Graduate is up to a mark of 105 now, but looks the type to be operating in pattern races by the end of the season.


  

We have to wait until the final day for the last two selections and they come in the two big sprints, the Diamond Jubilee and the Wokingham. First up is French raider Inns of Court in the Group 1 event. The French almost won the race with City Light last year, and Inns Of Court looks superior to that horse judged on his defeat of him first time out this year. He looked even better next time when winning the Prix du Gros-Chene by two and half lengths from Sestilio Jet. I thought he’s have been even more impressive if he’d have been able to take a lead for longer and it’s easy to see Ascot’s 6f track playing to his strengths.


  

The Wokingham is as open as you’d expect, but Vanbrugh brings a different profile to most and looks like one that could start a fair bit shorter than 25/1. Trained in France last year, he made a bright start for his new yard when winning a smart conditions race at Thirsk in April and there was a lot to like about his most recent run in a listed race at Haydock. He saw lots of daylight but loomed up going well before not really seeing his race out kept to 7f. That form looks better now with the winner and fourth, Safe Voyage and Suedois finishing first and second in the John of Gaunt last weekend and a well-run 6f like the Wokingham can see him run well.


  

Lucky 15 Selections:


Di Fede 33/1 – Duke of Cambridge Stakes, Wednesday 19th June


New Graduate 8/1 – Royal Hunt Cup, Wednesday 19th June


Inns of Court 11/2 – Diamond Jubilee, Saturday 22nd June


Vanbrugh 25/1 - Wokingham, Saturday 22nd June




 

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NEXT RACE SMART STATS

2 Ralph Beckett's number of winners in past 9 runnings. (saddles MURRAYMINT)
£68.68 Jonathan Portman's profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting (saddles SWEET REWARD)
£63.00 Jonathan Portman's profit to a £1 level stake with debutants (saddles SWEET REWARD)

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