Gleneagles: how does the 2000 Guineas winner compare with Aidan O'Brien's best?

We all know by now that when Aidan O’Brien makes a post-race remark on one of his Group 1 winners to the press, he might as well be talking directly to the catalogue writers for Coolmore Stud.

O’Brien is keenly aware of what he’s doing, perhaps even more so than might be evident at first listen. When he recently called Gleneagles “the best miler I’ve trained” after the colt completed the Newmarket-Curragh 2000 Guineas double, O’Brien seemed to be subtly referring to the perception that his operation specialises in middle-distance performers. Given his five Derby winners and a simply staggering 11 in the Irish equivalent, it would be an easy trap to fall into.

Timeform, for one, would contest the assumption. O’Brien has had a glut of horses rated top-class (i.e. 130 or above) in his career and plenty have been true middle-distance horses, even stayers in a couple of cases, but at the very front of a congested field there is a greater concentration of horses best around a mile.

Indeed, in Timeform’s eyes to claim Gleneagles is O’Brien’s best-ever miler would be to say that he’s O’Brien’s best-ever horse. That’s because his highest-rated on our scale is the mercurial Hawk Wing, rated 136 after winning the Lockinge by 10 lengths in 2003. Gleneagles might have already passed Hawk Wing’s Group 1 tally of three but for France’s strict rules on interference, but on a Timeform rating of 126 he has a way to go before he shows ability on the same level.

O’Brien’s next-best miler depends on your definition: specifically, whether or not Rip Van Winkle qualifies. On 134, he’s joint-second with his sire Galileo on O’Brien’s all-time list and strictly his very best performance came when second to Sea The Stars in one of the great renewals of the 10-furlong Eclipse. However, he ran almost as good a race to win the Sussex Stakes next time and lost out only by a neck to Canford Cliffs in the same race as a four-year-old (also nosed out in the QEII that year). His credentials as a miler are strong, while his Derby fourth can hardly be taken as evidence against him given that Hawk Wing was runner-up to High Chaparral in the race seven years earlier.

Tied on 133 are three cast-iron milers: Rock of Gibraltar, George Washington and Excelebration. Despite being on the same rating, their achievements come from three very different schools. Rock of Gibraltar was a trophy collector who won seven Group 1s, making that consistency possible by winning with style and ease. He is, in that sense, perhaps the closest of the three to Gleneagles.

There are quite a few parallels between the extremely-talented George Washington and Hawk Wing, though the former always seemed to be higher in the public’s affections. Perhaps it’s because he got his winning in early. He smashed up subsequent Derby winner Sir Percy in the 2000 Guineas and his failings from there (his QEII win that autumn being a notable exception) were viewed more from the angle of the prodigal son than the boy most likely to disappoint.  

Completing the triangle is Excelebration, who could well echo down racing history as an example of how transferring not just ability, but actual form into prizes can be out of a horse’s hands. His form in context is that of one of the century’s top milers, but too many times- five in all- he came up against the invincible Frankel. When Frankel wasn’t there, and even when he was, Excelebration consistently and by clear margins beat Group 1 winners such as Cityscape, Elusive Kate, Immortal Verse and Rio de La Plata. He’d have six Group 1s himself, rather than three, in a Frankel-less universe. He might even have won the Guineas: he was sent to Germany’s equivalent after being slammed by you-know-who in the Greenham on their first meeting.

In the context of these great horses, with only passing mention of the likes of Giant’s Causeway and Henrythenavigator (both 131), it becomes clear the size of field Gleneagles must manoeuvre through to prove himself Aidan O’Brien’s best.

We expect Gleneagles to remain pretty much where he is after the St James’s Palace- this crop of three-year-old milers feels very much like paddling in the kids’ pool. It’s only when he gets into the Olympic lanes with the likes of Night of Thunder (127), Toormore (126) and even Solow (130) that we’ll see his true worth. Should Gleneagles beat those horses in clear-cut fashion, then we’ll take his trainer’s statement after the Curragh as something more significant than a marketing soundbite.