Ribblesdale Stakes Ante-Post Preview: Mehdaayih can overturn Oaks form

A Group 2 race for three-year-old fillies over a mile and a half, the Ribblesdale Stakes is the logical next step for those who took their chance in the Oaks, and Epsom form regularly proves to be key here – something shown by last year’s 1-2, Magic Wand and Wild Illusion, who had previously finished fourth and second, respectively, in the Oaks.

Indeed, 11 of the 14 fillies who ran at Epsom hold an entry for this at the time of writing, including the Oaks winner Anapurna, who is a logical starting point for the John Gosden team.

Having won one of the less conventional trial races for the Oaks, the listed trial at Lingfield in May, Anapurna took a big step forward to record a classic win on just her fourth start, staying on well to regain the lead inside the final furlong having lead briefly from two furlongs out. Admittedly, she was seen to maximum advantage that day in a dramatic race, with the form-pick Maqsad failing to stay and the favourite Mehdaayih having a horrible run through, but she’s still open to improvement after just four outings and can’t be discounted if she takes her chance – though connections have hinted that she could now have a break until late-summer after her recent excursions.

Anapurna wins the Investec Oaks @EpsomRacecourse for @FrankieDettori and John Gosden! pic.twitter.com/PSddY1t7av

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 31, 2019

The best long-term prospect to emerge from the Oaks looks to be the runner-up, Pink Dogwood, who seemed certain to win after making a sweeping move down the outside to the front under Ryan Moore, before that effort perhaps told in the final strides against a better-positioned filly. A sister to last year’s Irish Derby winner Latrobe, it would be no surprise if she continued to improve as a three-year-old, and she would have leading claims if taking up her entry here for Ballydoyle, who have plenty of options.

Another pair to take out of the Oaks are Manuela de Vega and the aforementioned Mehdaayih, who were fourth and seventh, respectively. The latter was perhaps the most impressive trial winner of the lot when bounding clear to defeat Manuela de Vega by four and a half lengths in the Cheshire Oaks in May, and although she was unable to uphold that form at Epsom, she clearly wasn’t seen to best advantage, having endured a rough passage at various stages, including when badly baulked over a furlong out. She could well have finished third without the late interference, perhaps even better if she’d had the same sort of run through as the winner Anapurna, and isn’t one to discount here with further progress on the cards. Manuela de Vega was as such perhaps slightly fortunate to finish fourth, but she is still a useful filly in her own right and could have more to offer yet, particularly as her stamina is further drawn out.

Three more to consider from Epsom are Delphinia (fifth), Frankellina (sixth) and Peach Tree (tenth). The first-named was completely unconsidered in the betting for the Oaks, sent off as a 66/1-shot, but she ran really well on her first try over a mile and a half, appearing to relish the extra two furlongs, and though she’s likely to stay further in time, she will likely give this another good go. Stablemate Peach Tree was half Delphinia’s price, but was below form at Epsom and would have something to find here even on her best form. Meanwhile, Frankellina didn’t find the improvement that was perhaps expected of her back in sixth, lacking a change in pace in the straight, but that was just her third start and there could be more to come from her yet on a more conventional track.

A well-fancied filly who didn’t run at Epsom is Queen Power, who has won two of her three starts to date. Her sole defeat came on her reappearance at Ascot in May, when third in a conditions race, but she was unlucky not to win that day behind one that controlled the race, and quickly bounced back by winning a listed race at Newbury 17 days later, when getting the verdict over Lavender’s Blue by a neck. She looks opposable here, though, with the extra two furlongs not sure to suit on pedigree. Meanwhile, Lavender’s Blue was particularly disappointing at Epsom, finishing last of 14, but that run is perhaps best forgotten under the circumstances (unsuited by switch to front-running tactics) and she could yet get back on an upward curve if ridden more patiently here.   

An ice-cool ride by @SilvDSousa as he gets his timing spot-on with the winner Queen Power - and that makes it a treble on the day at @NewburyRacing for veteran trainer Sir Michael Stoute pic.twitter.com/Zmy2Ohs6fa

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 18, 2019

Another three who enter calculations are Shambolic, Entitle and Nausha. Considering the promise of her winning debut at Newbury last October, the latter disappointed slightly when fourth on her reappearance at Kempton in April, but she got firmly back on the up when winning the Musidora Stakes at York last time and is open to more improvement yet, for all that she isn’t a certain stayer. Entitle was second in the Musidora last time and is another who is open to more improvement yet. A half-sister to the top-class Enable, she took a big step forward at York and appeals as the type to carry on progressing, though she will need plenty more to feature here. Meanwhile, Shambolic has shown some useful form so far this term, finishing second in listed contests at Newmarket and Goodwood in May, though she was comfortably put in her place on each occasion and would need more here.

Conclusion

In summary, this looks a wideopen renewal of the Ribblesdale, and with doubts about Anapurna’s participation, it seems most likely to concern Pink Dogwood and Mehdaayih, who were second and seventh, respectively, in the Oaks. There isn’t too much to separate the pair on Timeform ratings, and considering the nightmare passage that Mehdaayih suffered that day, it looks worth siding with her at the prices, as she would undoubtedly have finished far closer on the day with a clear run, and remains open to improvement yet at this trip. Meanwhile. It would be no surprise to see another bold run from the consistent Delphinia at a price, and she also looks worth supporting each-way at around 33/1.

Recommendations

Back Mehdaayih at 5/1 in the Ribblesdale Stakes

Back Delphinia at 33/1 each-way in the Ribblesdale Stakes