Stat Selector: Wednesday November 14

By Timeform — published 14th November 2018

Our free Stat Selector has picked out three bets from today's action, using the most interesting trends and statistics.

Barney Dwan - Bangor 13:50

Smart Stat: £22.44 - Fergal O'Brien's profit with only one runner on the card (chases) since the start of the 2013/14 season

Fergal O’Brien has a good record when only sending one runner to the races, and the Gloucestershire-based handler saddles Barney Dwan at Bangor this afternoon. The eight-year-old won novices at Market Rasen and Musselburgh in 2017/18, and produced a good effort when 11¼ lengths fourth of 19 to Mister Whitaker in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham later in the season. He wasn’t seen to best effect when fifth to Charbel in a 2½m handicap at Chepstow last time, finishing with running left after making a mistake five out, but should come on for the run and this longer trip will suit.

Cabragh - Exeter 14:05

Smart Stat: £64.07 - Charlie Mann's profit with only one runner on the card (chases) since the start of the 2013/14 season

Redmond looks the one to beat on ratings in this competitive Exeter handicap, but Cabragh looks well-treated on his form of late-2016/early-2017 for Sam England, now only 4 lb higher than his win at Bangor that season. Both of his wins that term came on good-to-soft ground, and he gets similar conditions today, with the fact that he returns from a 250-day break no concern given he ran his best race of last season first-time-up. Trainer Charlie Mann has an excellent level stakes profit when only sending one runner to the track and Cabragh is expected to improve it further, with Daryl Jacob a positive jockey booking.

Arion Sky - Ayr 15:50

Smart Stat: £71.16 - Gordon Elliott's profit with bumper debutants since the start of the 2013/14 season

While Dona Katharina looks to be Gordon Elliott’s number one hope, the sister to Outlander having shown some ability in three starts to date, stablemate Arion Sky also catches the eye given her trainer’s fine record with bumper debutant(e)s. Arion Sky is the first foal of a sister to the top-class chaser Captain Chris, and while her pedigree may suggest that she’ll need more time, that’s often the case for most in these bumper fields; she can run a big race on debut.