Smart Stat: £23.68 - Sir Michael Stoute's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break
Sir Michael Stoute saddled a winner and an encouraging second when racing returned at Newcastle on Monday, so his horses are clearly forward enough, and with that in mind, Nashy makes a fair bit of appeal. Nashy was an expensive purchase as a yearling, and is bred to be a smart middle-distance performer. He shaped well on debut over a mile here in October, and will be well suited by the step up in trip now. Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle and a bold bid is expected.
Smart Stat: £30.51 - Hugo Palmer's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break
Smart Stat: 16% - Hugo Palmer's strike rate with handicap debutants
These three-year-old handicaps are going to be extremely competitive, with several likely to be ahead of their mark. In this case the stats strongly point towards Gigi’s Beach, who is making his handicap debut. Admittedly, he didn’t show much in three runs in 2019, but he has a smart pedigree, and he cost £125,000 at the breeze-ups last year, so he clearly has some ability. Gigi’s Beach has been gelded since last seen, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he showed much-improved form now given Hugo Palmer’s record with such types.
Smart Stat: £11.65 - Archie Watson's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break
Medal Winner progressed markedly with each start last season, getting off the mark in fine style on his third start at Brighton in July, despite still not looking the finished article. He was very easy to back on that occasion, but the manner in which he drew clear in the closing stages was impressive, and the handicapper hasn’t gone overboard with an opening mark of 90. There should be even more to come from him and he is one to keep on the right side.