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Stat Selector: Thursday 11 July


After tipping three winners from three selections on Wednesday, our free Stat Selector picks out three further bets on today's action using the most interesting trends and statistics.

Waldstern - 13:50 Newmarket

Smart Stat: 4 - John Gosden's number of winners in past 8 runnings

Gradually progressive as a two-year-old, Waldstern had little go right when making his reappearance/handicap debut at Chester last month, putting himself on the back foot with a slow start and then enduring sustained trouble in-running when attempting to make a challenge in the latter stages.

Admittedly, the bare form of that effort (beaten 14 lengths from a BHA mark of 98) leaves him with plenty to find now stepping up markedly in grade, but he is very much the type to do better as a three-year-old, and his pedigree suggests that he will be suited by going up even further in trip here; indeed, his dam is a half-sister to Masked Marvel, who provided John Gosden with the first of his four wins in this race in the last eight years - the 9/1 currently on offer looks a fair price.


Aplomb - 15:00 Newmarket

Smart Stat: 24% - William Haggas's strike rate in mid season

Aplomb was value for extra when getting back to winning ways at Nottingham last time, forced to wait for a gap as the field entered the final furlong, but quickly forging clear once eventually getting a bit of daylight. William Haggas' charge remains potentially well treated from 5 lb higher here, with the prospect of even more to come after only six starts, and there is no reason why he shouldn't give another good account in his follow-up bid, representing a yard that could hardly be in better form at present (70.7% of runners performing to expectations).


Dubai Paradise - 16:05 Newmarket

Smart Stats: 2 - Charlie Appleby's number of winners in past 2 runnings

25% - Charlie Appleby's strike rate at NEWMARKET (JULY) since the start of the 2015 season

Daily Times sets the standard amongst those with previous experience here, but this is a typical Newmarket maiden in which there are several interesting newcomers taking her on, and the fact that Dubai Paradise has already been backed into favouritism on debut looks significant, especially when taking her connections into account.

Indeed, she represents the Charlie Appleby yard that excels with its runners at this track, as evidenced by its wins in the last two renewals of this race (including with the newcomer Spring Cosmos in 2017), and there is plenty in her pedigree to explain the confidence behind her in the betting - she is by Exceed And Excel and out of a mare who won twice as a juvenile, before finishing second in the following year's UAE 1000 Guineas.




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1st R. P. Whelan silk 3. KATIYMANN (IRE) 4/15
2nd R. C. Colgan silk ½ 4. VERHOYEN 8/19
J: R. P. Whelan  
5 ran. NRs: 5 


1st Shane Kelly silk 7. CLASSY CAILIN (IRE) 14/115
2nd Josephine Gordon silk ½ 9. SWEET FORGETME NOT (IRE) 5/16
3rd Rossa Ryan silk ¾ 1. FIERY BREATH 5/16
J: Shane Kelly  
T: Pam Sly  
All 11 ran.


1st C. T. Keane silk 4. SHARP FOCUS 6/17
2nd William James Lee silk ¾ 10. HAVANA BREEZE (IRE) 20/121
3rd C. P. Hoban silk hd 14. BUTTON POPPER 16/117
J: C. T. Keane  
15 ran. NRs: 16  17  18 


1st Luke Morris silk 8. DISTANT CHIMES (GER) 7/42.75f
2nd Richard Kingscote silk 4. CHARLIE D (USA) 6/17
3rd P. J. McDonald silk 9. ROBERT L'ECHELLE (IRE) 11/26.5
J: Luke Morris  
9 ran. NRs: 2 


1st Ben Martin Coen silk 7. DARE TO FLARE (IRE) 14/115
2nd G. F. Carroll silk nk 1. RITA LEVI (IRE) 14/115
3rd R. P. Whelan silk nk 10. RED BLOODEDCRUISER 25/126
4th N. G. McCullagh silk ¾ 12. TRUEBA (IRE) 9/43.25f
J: Ben Martin Coen (5)  
18 ran. NRs: 19  20 


1st Jim Crowley silk 4. FIVE DIAMONDS 1/21.5f
2nd Shane Kelly silk nk 1. BURNING TOPIC (GER) 15/82.87
J: Jim Crowley  
7 ran. NRs: 6 


1st C. T. Keane silk 12. VIADERA 5/23.5f
2nd Frankie Dettori silk sh 6. LADY WANNABE (IRE) 6/17
3rd P. B. Beggy silk 10. SIMPLY BEAUTIFUL (IRE) 8/19
J: C. T. Keane  
11 ran. NRs: 2 


1st Luke Morris silk 1. HYDROPLANE (IRE) 6/52.2f
2nd David Probert silk 7. CHAKRII (IRE) 18/119
3rd George Wood silk 1 4. HOOFLEPUFF (IRE) 11/43.75
J: Luke Morris  
All 10 ran.


1st L. T. McAteer silk 3. REEKING HAVOC (IRE) 12/113
2nd Adam Farragher silk ½ 11. GUIDING STAR 10/111
3rd Ben Martin Coen silk hd 4. TYRCONNELL (IRE) 15/28.5
4th Shane Foley silk ¾ 6. JUNGLE JUNGLE (IRE) 9/25.5f
J: L. T. McAteer (7)  
18 ran. NRs: 20  9 
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