Timeform Expert View: Breeders' Cup

By Timeform — published 7th November 2020

Timeform's US Form Expert Mark Milligan and UK Handicapper Matt Gardner run through their best bets for the 2020 Breeders' Cup at Keeneland.

US Handicapper Mark Milligan

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

There’s no doubt that GIRL DADDY needs to improve a little on the form she’s already shown, but as a lightly-raced $500k daughter of top dirt sire Uncle Mo, there’s every chance she’ll do just that. Unbeaten in both starts to date, including in Grade 3 company last time, Dale Roman’s filly looks open to plenty more improvement.

Likely favourite Princess Noor has been impressive in winning all three starts to date, but she’s yet to record a decent timefigure, and there’s a chance she may not quite as good as those races make her seem. Dayoutoftheoffice is another that looks sure to be in the mix, but she may not be open to quite as much progression as Girl Daddy.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

An inside draw and early speed could prove to be crucial in this year’s Turf Sprint and BIG RUNNUER ticks both of those boxes. Victor Garcia’s sprinter proved better than ever when leading from start to finish in the Grade 2 Eddie D Stakes at Santa Anita last time, coming home a length clear of Wildman Jack.

Big Runneur was completing the hat-trick there having previously taken an optional claimer and a minor stakes contest at the same track earlier in the year. The addition of headgear seems to have elevated the son of Stormy Atlantic to a new level form-wise and he can see off the closers from the front.

Breeders' Cup Sprint

The lightly-raced YAUPON has answered every question posed of him in his short career to date and he can remain unbeaten by taking out the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Having won on debut at Churchill Downs in June, Yaupon has quickly established himself as one of the best sprinters in the US, going to win an optional claimer and Grade 2 at Saratoga, before impressively taking care of Grade 3 opposition at Pimlico last time.

With ante-post favourite Vekoma out of the race, Yaupon’s task has been that bit easier, and it will be disappointing if he can’t make the breakthrough at the top level on his first attempt. There’s not a lot to choose between the opposition, and it may be the filly Frank’s Rockette who follows him home.

UK Handicapper Matt Gardner

Filly And Mare Turf

It’s strange to say about a horse not far off turning five, but I’m not sure we’ve seen the very best of TEREBELLUM yet. She was unraced as a juvenile but progressed well last year, winning a Group 2 in France, but has taken her form to another level this season, finishing an excellent second to Circus Maximus in the Queen Anne.

She didn’t seem ideally suited by making her own running in the Falmouth and shaped as if better for the run (off 3 months) in the Sun Chariot last time, leaving the impression that she’ll be spot on for this assignment. The step back up in trip ought to hold no fears for her, and she looks overpriced.

Breeders' Cup Mile

It’s possible to pick holes in most of the market leaders in the Mile, tempting therefore to have a stab at one at a big price. The one I’ve fallen down on is LOPE Y FERNANDEZ, who has seemingly always been held in quite high regard by connections and looks well worth another try at this trip.

He’s justified some of that reputation this year, finishing second to Pinatubo and third to Space Blues in a couple of French Group 1s. The drop back to sprinting hasn’t paid off the last twice but he’s not one to give up on just yet, with his sharp turn of foot likely to serve him well here. He’ll likely be dropped out and ridden for a late burst, worth playing in both the win and place markets.

Breeders' Cup Turf

After his Prince Of Wales’s win I would not have believed that LORD NORTH would be a bigger price than the likes Of Tarnawa and Mogul for this race. Yes things haven’t gone to plan since, unable to live with Ghaiyyath in the Juddmonte International and one of several John Gosden-trained horses to flop on Champions day at Ascot, but he has all the tools to excel in this environment and is worth another chance.

He was really impressive in that win at Royal Ascot, showing his trademark sharp turn of foot to readily beat subsequent Champion Stakes winner Addeybb by almost four lengths. Magical is a worth adversary but the market ought to be a lot tighter than it is, and he’s fancied to run a big race.