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Timefigure preview: Dewhurst and Autumn Stakes

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Timeform's R&D team look at the best timefigure performances ahead of the Dewhurst Stakes and Autumn Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday

Pinatubo has already achieved a level of performance sufficient – though sufficient sells short the sensational performances he’s put up – to win every renewal of the Darley Dewhurst Stakes in modern times. When you consider recent winners of the Dewhurst include Too Darn Hot (124 performance rating), Dawn Approach, 122) and Frankel (126), it’s no surprise much of his opposition has been scared off.

From a timefigure perspective, Pinatubo has been at the top of his generation since his win in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, which was the best two-year-old performance that week, backed up by the time and sectionals.

He produced a most impressive performance to win the Vintage Stakes (137 adjusted timefigure), with Timeform’s reporter noting it was rare to see a two-year-old operating at the sort of level Pinatubo was at that stage of the season.

Repeating his Goodwood performance would have been enough to win the National Stakes at the Curragh, but he took his form to another level, drubbing two of the best Irish juveniles in a manner scarcely imaginable. He achieved a performance rating of 134 (131 timefigure, 144 adjusted), which is the highest for a juvenile since Celtic Swing earned 138 in the 1994 Racing Post Trophy, wrapping up champion two-year-old honours in the process.

He’ll need to be amiss to meet with defeat at Newmarket in the Dewhurst - it’s hard to see any of his rivals reaching the level of form he showed in the Vintage Stakes, let alone in the National Stakes.

Wichita has been supplemented, having come a long way since his debut six weeks ago, improving with each start, culminating in a seven-length win in the Tattersalls Stakes. It was a pretty thin race by Group 3 standards, however that shouldn’t take anything away from the performance as he travelled strongly behind the leaders before storming clear in a good time (125). The level he’s reached would see him near top-rated in any other year. But this isn’t a normal year.

Molatham and Al Suhail are the ones to beat on time and form in the Autumn Stakes, while the likes of Cherokee Trail and Military March have shown plenty of promise but perhaps not had the opportunity to show themselves in their best light.

Al Suhail was second on debut in a very hot maiden at Newmarket in July and he won next time out in a small field at Yarmouth before running in the Solario Stakes, where he finished third behind Positive in a good time (115), with closing sectionals suggesting the race could be rated higher still. However, his finishing effort left a little to be desired, having looked a big threat inside the final furlong.

Molatham shaped well on debut when second to Mums Tipple and then produced an impressive time (114) in the Convivial Maiden at York. He didn’t look the finished article there and subsequently improved when winning the Flying Scotsman at Doncaster from Wichita. He was value for bit extra given the race was run at a steady gallop and had to come from off the pace, moving past the field impressively as the pace quickened.

Military March hasn’t been seen since winning on debut in July at Newmarket. His pedigree is full of stamina but showed plenty of dash to open his account in a good time (102). Cherokee Trail is two from two and improved on his debut to win at Newbury in a fair time (93). He is obviously still unexposed.

 

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