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The Timeform Knowledge: Cognitive Biases and Psychology of Betting

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The latest edition of The Timeform Knowledge looks at cognitive biases and the psychology of betting.

It is difficult to be involved in betting for any length of time and to any degree of seriousness without considering the role played in the activity by cognitive biases and psychology.

Unless you hand over all betting responsibility to algorithms and “bots” (robotic software), or to another human – the doing of which involves making a choice in itself – the unavoidable fact is that you will have to make decisions, and those decisions will be influenced by the way in which you think.

The betting edifice is, as we are often reminded, a broad one. It caters for the highly rational and serious to the superstitious and purely recreational. Even highly rational bettors are prone to so-called cognitive biases, or instinctive deviations from rationality: it is part and parcel of being human.  

It is possible to train yourself to overcome these biases to a greater or lesser degree, and if you want to be a serious bettor then that is recommended. But perhaps the first step is to understand what those biases are.

The following is a by-no-means-exhaustive list of the cognitive biases and heuristics which tend to affect horseracing bettors more than others. Most of them are recognised in the field of psychology (with thanks to Wikipedia), but some of them have been adapted for this module.

Cognitive Biases and Heuristics in Horse RacingKnowing about cognitive biases, and training yourself to avoid them, or to use them to your advantage, is one thing, but avoiding the psychology of betting more widely is impossible. We are all human and have preferences for security or risk, or capacities for instinctive or rational thought, that are deeply ingrained and specific to us.

It is easier to change one’s specific behaviours than to change oneself.

When all is said and done, it may well be best to engage with betting in a manner which plays to your existing strengths, rather than to try to change what those strengths are. This is a message that comes through loud and clear from many successful bettors.

If you are the sort of person who requires regular positive reinforcement, then backing 33/1 shots once or twice a week may not be for you if you want to avoid becoming a nervous wreck.

On the other hand, if you have the sort of temperament and self-belief which are not rattled by long losing runs then you may find you are well suited to siding with horses at big odds that others tend to ignore and/or misprice.

Working outside your psychological comfort zone may well result in you making bad decisions when things do not go well, or even when they go too well. To err is human. But erring is likely to happen less if you are in control and feel comfortable with what it is you are doing.

“Cognitive Biases and the Psychology of Betting” could easily run to tens of thousands of words, and the above is intended only to whet the appetite for what is a fascinating subject. Anyone wishing to learn more about cognition in general could do a lot worse than read “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman.

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PONTEFRACT 13:45

Monday 19 October
2. PYTHAGORAS (IRE) 1st
Paul Hanagan silk Paul Hanagan
Richard Fahey
5. MYSTERY ANGEL (IRE) 2nd
Ben Curtis silk Ben Curtis
George Boughey
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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

16:40 PLUMPTON

1st Harry Bannister silk 2. SPEEDY CARGO (IRE) 3/14
2nd James Bowen silk 3. HIDDEN CARGO (IRE) 7/18
5 ran. NRs: 6  7 
QUICK RESULT

16:35 GOWRAN PARK

1st C. T. Keane silk 5. LA JOYA (IRE) 3/14
2nd S. M. Crosse silk 9. NOBLE HERITAGE (GER) 4/15
3rd Declan McDonogh silk 3 6. LADY DAHLIA (IRE) 9/43.25f
J: C. T. Keane  
11 ran. NRs: 11  13 
FULL RESULT

16:30 WINDSOR

1st Mr Alex Chadwick silk 2. CHENG GONG 17/29.5
2nd Mr Simon Walker silk nk 6. AZOR AHAI 6/17
3rd Mr Henry Main silk nk 13. PARA QUEEN (IRE) 15/28.5
4th Mr Matthew Ennis silk 3. LADY ISABEL (IRE) 7/42.75f
J: Mr Alex Chadwick (5)  
T: Neil King  
All 16 ran.
FULL RESULT

16:25 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Dylan Hogan silk 7. PAX BRITANNICA (IRE) 11/26.5
2nd Stefano Cherchi silk ½ 5. BAD ATTITUDE 4/15jf
3rd Hannah Fraser silk 2. CRITIQUE (IRE) 7/18
J: Dylan Hogan  
11 ran. NRs: 3 
FULL RESULT

16:20 PONTEFRACT

1st Connor Beasley silk 9. JOHN KIRKUP 11/43.75f
2nd Paul Mulrennan silk 2. BOSSIPOP 11/112
3rd James Sullivan silk 2 5. POYLE VINNIE 33/134
T: Michael Dods  
All 12 ran.
FULL RESULT

16:10 PLUMPTON

1st Brian Hughes silk 1. CONSTANCIO (IRE) 9/43.25
2nd Richard Johnson silk 6. JACKSON HILL (IRE) 9/25.5
J: Brian Hughes  
6 ran. NRs: 5 
FULL RESULT

16:05 GOWRAN PARK

1st L. F. Roche silk 11. FLIGHT COMMAND (IRE) 17/29.5
2nd R. P. Whelan silk 9. SLIEVE BEARNAGH (IRE) 5/16
3rd R. P. Cleary silk 5 5. PLUNKETT 14/115
J: L. F. Roche  
All 12 ran.
FULL RESULT

16:00 WINDSOR

1st Kieran Shoemark silk 1. ESPRESSO FREDDO (IRE) 10/34.33jf
2nd Ryan Tate silk 2. LE REVEUR (IRE) 14/115
3rd Oisin Murphy silk 9. PARTY ISLAND (IRE) 10/34.33jf
All 13 ran.
FULL RESULT

15:50 PONTEFRACT

1st Lewis Edmunds silk 8. ROUND THE ISLAND 7/24.5
2nd Ben Curtis silk 2. WHAT A BUSINESS (IRE) 3/14f
3rd Daniel Tudhope silk 3. SWEET PURSUIT 11/112
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT
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