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Rowleyfile Preview: Midlands Grand National

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Simon Rowlands analyses Saturday's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and picks out his best each-way bet.

With Cheltenham now behind us, or about to be behind us, by the time you read this, the focus turns to Grand Nationals: the Aintree one in early-April, of course, and the Scottish one in late-April, but before that the Midlands version at Uttoxeter on Saturday.

While many of the very best chasers will have been in action at this week’s Festival, the Midlands Grand National has attracted more than a few noteworthy winners over the years, including The Thinker in 1987 and Synchronised in 2010, respectively a year and two years before they won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, no less.

If all 22 declared runners stand their ground in this year’s race it will be the co-largest field in history and outright largest this century. What is very likely, however, is that a good number of those starting will fail to finish. A remarkable 48% of starters in the last decade have ended up being pulled up, with another 8% non-completers for other reasons.

This comes with its own problems for analysis, for how are pulled-ups and fallers etc meant to be treated in terms of “finishing position”? My approach is to recode all pulled-ups as joint-last (so that if there were three pulled-ups in a 10-runner race they would all be treated as finishing ninth) and fallers etc as beating/being beaten by 50% of their rivals. It works, I think.

Against that backdrop, the following are some of the key trends for the Marston’s 61 Deep-sponsored race this time round.

So, the 10-year trends favour eight-year-olds and nine-year-olds over younger or older, lower-weighted horses taken overall, horses which finished second or third on their previous starts, those reappearing after an absence of 43 to 84 days and (somewhat counter-intuitively) those without a win in the season under review.

However, while there are quite a few findings there, none of them is especially strong, let alone coming close to “ruling out” anything in isolation.

Among the stronger contenders are Prime Venture, Back To The Thatch, Get On The Yager and Ballymalin, all of whom get four “ticks” along the way. Ballydine, Jammin Masters, Jetstream Jack and Sandy Beach come in on three.

Other, more immediate, factors to consider are the likelihood of an honest pace – Milansbar and Chef d’Oeuvre have consolidated Timeform EPFs of 1.6 and two others figure on 2.1 and 2.2 – and trainer form.

Christian Williams (Potters Corner) is on 66% and Neil King (Milansbar) on 65%, while Charlie Longsdon, David Dennis and Sophie Leech have been in the doldrums as judged by % of rivals beaten in handicaps from the beginning of February to the beginning of this week.

One piece of form that deserves more than your passing interest is the The Last Fling Handicap Chase over three miles, three furlongs, and 127 yards, at Haydock on 30 December.

 

Chef d’Oeuvre was the winner that day, by two and three quarters of a length from Back To The Thatch, with Dell’ Arca a further 12 lengths back in third and Ballymalin a well-beaten fifth.

The impression that was strong form was borne out when the winner came third off an 11-lb higher mark in the Grand National Trial on the same course in February and fourth, fifth and sixth all improved their Timeform performance ratings next time also.

The upshot here is that Chef d’Oeuvre now meets Back To The Thatch on 9 lb worse terms, while Dell’ Arca reopposes on 7 lb better terms and Ballymalin (who is out of the handicap at Uttoxeter) gets a 2 lb swing, neither of which should be enough.

Back To The Thatch is a pretty well-handicapped horse, in other words, and, as we have seen, he has got a few of the trends in his favour.

He also promises to stay very well – his pulled up effort here 12 months ago came on the back of shaping well until falling in a gruelling Eider Chase – and all of his form is in the mud. The longer break since that excellent Haydock run is one of those things that the trends suggest is to his advantage.

Obviously, there are lots of threats, not least the patiently campaigned Ms Parfois and good last-time winners Dawson City and Arthur’s Gift, but it is arguable whether they will be able to give weight to the fresh-faced Back To The Thatch if he runs his race.

The way to tackle this race is to bet each-way rather than win only, with the win book at 133% at best early prices but just 109% per-place assuming four places (and you may be able to get more).

Recommendation:

1 pt e/w BACK TO THE THATCH at 14/1, ¼ odds first four places

 

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WOLVERHAMPTON 17:30

Tuesday 26 March
4. A SURE WELCOME 95
Luke Morris silk Luke Morris
John Spearing
3. MIRACLE WORKS 94
Tom Marquand silk Tom Marquand
Robert Cowell
1. AMAZING GRAZING (IRE) 94
Daniel Tudhope silk Daniel Tudhope jockey uplift
Rebecca Bastiman
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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

19:45 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st S. B. Kirrane silk 1. UBLA (IRE) 6/17
2nd Adam Kirby silk ¾ 4. MOLTEN LAVA (IRE) 8/19
3rd Paul Hanagan silk nk 8. LA SIOUX (IRE) 11/26.5
J: S. B. Kirrane (7)  
T: Gay Kelleway  
11 ran. NRs: 5  7 
FULL RESULT

19:15 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Cam Hardie silk 9. GREY DESTINY 8/19
2nd Rossa Ryan silk sh 10. DE LITTLE ENGINE (IRE) 16/117
3rd Phil Dennis silk 1 7. PEACHEY CARNEHAN 9/110
J: Cam Hardie  
9 ran. NRs: 1  11  5 
FULL RESULT

18:45 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Hollie Doyle silk 9. SECOND COLLECTION 5/16
2nd Cam Hardie silk 2 7. KLOPP 15/28.5
3rd Andrew Breslin silk ½ 11. ASCOT DREAMER 25/126
J: Hollie Doyle  
T: Tony Carroll  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

18:15 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Shane Kelly silk 2. TOP BREEZE (IRE) 4/61.66f
2nd Phil Dennis silk 11. SOUND OF IONA 66/167
3rd Adam Kirby silk 3. MAJOR BLUE 12/113
J: Shane Kelly  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

17:45 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Megan Nicholls silk 7. KRAZY PAVING 11/112
2nd Jack Mitchell silk ns 3. DARING GUEST (IRE) 10/34.33
3rd Gary Mahon silk hd 10. WILD FLOWER (IRE) 50/151
J: Megan Nicholls (5)  
T: Olly Murphy  
12 ran. NRs: 6 
FULL RESULT

17:15 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Jack Mitchell silk 3. KIRTLING 6/17
2nd Scott McCullagh silk 1 8. GIVEPEACEACHANCE 17/29.5
3rd Cam Hardie silk ½ 12. HUSSAR BALLAD (USA) 12/113
T: Andi Brown  
All 12 ran.
FULL RESULT

17:00 LINGFIELD PARK

1st Mr Simon Walker silk 5. OROBAS (IRE) 7/18
2nd Miss Katy Brooks silk 1. LIGHT OF AIR (FR) 10/111
3rd Miss Becky Brisbourne silk nk 13. CLIVE CLIFTON (IRE) 16/117
All 13 ran.
FULL RESULT

16:45 WINCANTON

1st Nick Scholfield silk 6. HEY BUD 8/19
2nd Ben Poste silk 13 5. ECLAIR DES SABLONS (FR) 50/151
T: Jeremy Scott  
All 7 ran.
FULL RESULT

16:30 LINGFIELD PARK

1st Oisin Murphy silk 1. VIN D'HONNEUR (IRE) 17/29.5
2nd Charles Bishop silk 12. BONNEVILLE (IRE) 8/19
3rd Franny Norton silk 3. AL DAAYEN (FR) 16/117
J: Oisin Murphy  
All 14 ran.
FULL RESULT
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