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Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 John Smith’s Cup

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Simon Rowlands analyses the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday and recommends backing two against the field.

There are a number of pieces of evidence to note when considering the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday, but arguably the most important is that a 20-runner handicap in which bookmakers are betting a minimum of one-quarter the odds the first four places is ripe for an each-way bet rather than a win-only bet.

The maths – which I will only partly bore you with here – shows that you would need to stake about £128 proportional to the best early win odds to guarantee a return of £100 come what may – not an especially appealing proposition – but only about £103 to do the same on the place part. Some bookmakers may even offer better place terms than that.

You cannot back place only at fixed odds – in large part due to such scenarios – but you can bet win and place, or each way as most people know it. At the end of this piece the recommendation will be to back two horses each way rather than win only.

Other important evidence includes what we might expect from various “trends” over the last 10 years of a race that has had 58 editions overall. The following are what those trends say, with the most important indicators, as usual, being Place Impact Value and % Rivals Beaten to the far right.

Three-year-olds and four-year-olds have outperformed chance, but not by much once opportunity and non-winners as well as winners have been considered (the only three-year-old has been scratched). 

The draw has favoured inner stalls over outer stalls over the years, but it is a slightly murky picture overall, with the nearly-outer stalls having been responsible for six of the last 10 winners (races have been recoded to take into account non-runners).

A short absence or a medium absence have been positives in the last decade, but absences of more than eight weeks have been the opposite.

Interestingly, last-time winners have performed rather worse than by chance (other than in terms of wins only) despite a reasonable expectation being that they would do a good deal better. All the last-time winners (as well as one penultimate-start winner) on Saturday will run penalised.

One consequence is that last-time seconds and thirds have a good record by the measures that matter, having presumably run well but escaped a penalty in many instances.

The likely pace profile of Saturday’s race is somewhat ambiguous. You can have odds against with me that a field of 20 dawdles, but there are no real out-and-out front-runners in their number. Dash of Spice (who is returning to a shorter trip), Born To Be Alive and Appeared have the lowest Timeform EPFs.

Ultimately, all that matters – all that ever matters – is whether or not horses are overpriced or underpriced, though there is no definitive “truth” in this area: betting is, in effect, an extended test of an individual’s ability to judge value.

For me, Mordin and Thundering Blue are the two to be most interested in, the former a qualifier on trends, the latter more form-based.

Mordin is a four-year-old last-time runner-up who may not be perfectly positioned in stall nine, but he is better placed than the other horse who ticks those two boxes, Afaak, who is out in stall 21 (effectively 19).

Mordin has been getting steadily better, winning his first three and finding only one too good in his three starts since, and he gets to go off the same mark as when short-headed by Mooltazem at Ayr three weeks ago, in what was admittedly a weaker affair.

Trainer Simon Crisford continues in good form, second only to Roger Varian by % of Rivals Beaten in handicaps since May (64.1% compared to 64.6%).

Thundering Blue does not “fit the trends”, such as they are, in being a five-year-old among other things. But he is a gelding who won remarkably easily at this course and distance two starts ago and who can be excused his defeat behind Dash of Spice and Sir Chauvelin at Royal Ascot last time on account of the 12f trip there almost certainly being too far.

Thundering Blue went well enough for a long way – too well if anything – to think that he remains in form, and York’s long straight should enable jockey Fran Berry to adopt the usual waiting tactics.

On his day, Thundering Blue looks listed if not lower-Group class, and that should be enough to see him go close here.

Recommendations: 1 pt ew THUNDERING BLUE at 8/1, 0.5 pt ew MORDIN at 25/1, ¼ odds, first four places

 
 

 

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MUSSELBURGH 14:15

Monday 10 December
3. LIVA (IRE) 130p
Daryl Jacob silk Daryl Jacob
Donald McCain
7. SARVI 116
Callum Bewley silk Callum Bewley
Jim Goldie
6. CAN CAN SIXTY TWO ?
Stephen Mulqueen silk Stephen Mulqueen
R. Mike Smith
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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

15:40 PUNCHESTOWN

1st Mr T. Hamilton silk 4. EMBITTERED (IRE) 9/25.5
2nd Mr J. J. Codd silk 8. SANTANA PLESSIS (FR) 4/61.66f
3rd Mr M. J. O'Hare silk hd 2. CENOTICE 5/16
J: Mr T. Hamilton (5)  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

15:30 HUNTINGDON

1st Leighton Aspell silk 1. LORD GETAWAY (IRE) 17/29.5
2nd Ben Poste silk 6 10. EATON MILLER (IRE) 11/26.5
3rd David Noonan silk 1 8. ARTHUR'S REUBEN 9/110
T: James Evans  
10 ran. NRs: 6 
FULL RESULT

15:20 CORK

1st Robbie Power silk 2. RONALD PUMP 11/112
2nd P. Townend silk nk 6. EIGHT AND BOB 2/13
3rd D. G. Hogan silk 9. YOUCANTCALLHERTHAT (IRE) 11/82.37f
4th B. J. Cooper silk 1. FIRST CLASS RETURN (IRE) 25/126
J: Robbie Power  
20 ran. NRs: 3 
FULL RESULT

15:15 KELSO

1st Lorcan Murtagh silk 10. BORDER VICTOR 9/25.5
2nd Blair Campbell silk ns 1. SCALES OF JUSTICE (IRE) 17/29.5
3rd Danny Cook silk 11. CHOCOLAT NOIR (IRE) 8/19
J: Lorcan Murtagh (3)  
All 14 ran.
FULL RESULT

15:05 PUNCHESTOWN

1st Mr D. O'Connor silk 8. SE MO LAOCH (IRE) 9/43.25f
2nd Denis O'Regan silk 3. SNUGSBOROUGH HALL (IRE) 9/110
3rd Mr S. F. O'Keeffe silk 2. CRESUS DE GRISSAY (FR) 9/110
13 ran. NRs: 14  15 
FULL RESULT

15:00 HUNTINGDON

1st Ross Chapman silk 12. TIMETOCHILL (IRE) 11/112
2nd Harry Skelton silk ½ 3. EMMAS JOY (IRE) 16/117
3rd Harry Cobden silk 11. SILVER FOREVER (IRE) 11/82.37f
J: Ross Chapman  
T: Kelly Morgan  
All 13 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:50 CORK

1st L. P. Dempsey silk 3. CHATHAM STREET LAD (IRE) 9/43.25f
2nd K. J. Brouder silk 6 12. POUND A STROKE (IRE) 7/18
3rd J. S. McGarvey silk 10. WAIT HERE (IRE) 13/27.5
4th C. Brassil silk 3 6. GENEVA BARRACKS (IRE) 12/113
16 ran. NRs: 7 
FULL RESULT

14:40 KELSO

1st Ryan Day silk 8. PETERS COUSIN (IRE) 5/16
2nd Lucy Alexander silk ½ 7. OFF THE HOOK (IRE) 5/16
3rd Brian Hughes silk 1 11. WHITEOAK FLEUR 33/134
J: Ryan Day  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

14:30 PUNCHESTOWN

1st R. Walsh silk 5. GETABIRD (IRE) 4/71.57f
2nd D. J. Mullins silk 3. ARTICULUM (IRE) 8/19
3rd Davy Russell silk 3 9. MOON OVER GERMANY (IRE) 8/19
J: R. Walsh  
All 12 ran.
FULL RESULT
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