Cheltenham Festival Ratings Update

Grade 1 hurdles

There might have been only seven runners in the Champion Hurdle field, the same number as two years ago when it had been the smallest field since 1974, but with the last couple of winners facing a mare beaten only once in ten starts, it raised the possibility that the race might throw up a special performance. But in an extraordinary contest, Constitution Hill (remains 177) crashed out at the fifth, with State Man (remains 167) following suit when five lengths clear at the last and looking all set to follow up last year’ success.

Brighterdaysahead (159 from 167) was already a spent force by then so couldn’t take advantage and trailed home fourth of the five finishers behind 25/1 winner Golden Ace (146 from 143), the mare who’d inflicted her only previous defeat in last season’s Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. The winner of the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on her previous start, Golden Ace has been credited with a little improvement but, even so, she has to go down as one of the lowest-rated Champion Hurdle winners of recent times, around 20 lb below what might be considered ‘normal’ Champion Hurdle-winning form. Five of the last ten Champion Hurdles have now been won by mares. The Kingwell runner-up Burdett Road (149 from 148) was beaten further in second this time but was badly baulked after the last and comes out best at the weights taking that interference into account in his rating.

Ironically, given the drama in the Champion Hurdle, it was a last-time-out fall which encouraged connections of Lossiemouth to go for a repeat win in the Mares’ Hurdle instead. She accomplished that task impressively without needing to run close to her existing rating of 158, though a performance figure of 150 was still higher than that put up by Golden Ace in the Champion Hurdle.

Lossiemouth apart, last year’s Festival winners struggled to retain their titles from last year and another who came up short was Teahupoo (159 from 163), favourite to win the Stayers’ Hurdle again. He did little wrong but couldn’t match the turn of foot after the last of Bob Olinger (160 from 157) in the same Robcour colours. The ten-year-old winner’s career looked to have stalled at one point but he has a fine record at Cheltenham, having previously won the Baring Bingham and Golden Miller (left clear by Galopin des Champs’ fall) at the Festival. In a frustrating week for Gordon Elliott (who had to wait until the final race of the meeting for his only winner) he had both placed horses, with a good run in third from the somewhat quirky The Wallpark (151 from 148).

Novice hurdles

Anyone who thought Kopek des Bordes’ (159p from 154P) odds-on success in the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was going to set the tone for a succession of ‘good things’ to hose up over the following four days was in for a rude shock. But Willie Mullins and Paul Townend – who ended the week as leading trainer and jockey again, with ten and four winners respectively – at least began the week meeting many punters’ expectations.

While Kopek des Bordes kept his unbeaten record in a first-time hood, he had to work hard to do so as his lack of experience means he’s still something of a work in progress with his jumping no better than adequate. He overcame a less than fluent jump at the last to win ridden out by a length and three quarters from the much-improved William Munny (156 from 141p), with Romeo Coolio (151 from 149p), looking in need of a step up in trip, back in third. Kopek des Bordes has the physique to make a chaser when the time comes and the third has the makings of a good novice chase prospect too.

Like the Supreme, the Turners winner came into the race with a ‘large P’ on his rating after The New Lion (156p from 143P) had been an impressive winner of the Challow Novices’ at Newbury. Like Kopek des Bordes, The New Lion was made to work harder this time but accomplished his task in gutsy fashion after staying on to lead in the last fifty yards for a three-quarter length win over The Yellow Clay (155p from 146p).

The New Lion’s pedigree suggests further still would suit (useful sister Kateira stays three miles) but with the Champion Hurdle in mind the way he travels suggests a well-run two miles wouldn’t pose him too many problems. The New Lion was only the second British-trained winner of the Turners since 2013, though the Irish pair who chased him home, both also unbeaten over hurdles beforehand, remain good prospects themselves. Favourite Final Demand (150p from 148p) was the least experienced of the trio but also the most imposing and makes plenty of appeal over fences next season.

As usual, the Albert Bartlett winner couldn’t be rated quite as highly as the winners of the other Grade 1 novices but last year’s Champion Bumper winner Jasmin de Vaux (143p from 135) was very well suited by the stiffer test. He wasn’t the most imposing in the field so his future may remain over hurdles where there’s plenty of room in the staying division for a younger contender to come through. Placed pair The Big Westerner (134p from 132p), a half-sister to the 2023 Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay, and, in particular, the Lucinda Russell-trained Derryhassen Paddy (136 from 130p) are much more chasing types for next season.

There was no bigger shock during the week than Poniros winning the Triumph Hurdle at 100/1 on his debut over hurdles. One of 11 trained by Willie Mullins out of a field of 17, seven were making their first start for the yard, with Poniros, who had useful Flat form for Ralph Beckett, one of three having their first run over hurdles. While Poniros was perhaps helped by others taking each other on some way out, his performance was backed up by the clock. Unbeaten favourite East India Dock (148+ from 146p) set a good standard going into the race but lost out for second behind main market rival Lulamba (149p from 138P) who duly improved on his impressive British debut at Ascot and looks the best long-term prospect in the field.

The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Dawn Run) drew its biggest ever field and the Irish pair who finished clear put up useful efforts with the promise of more to come. Winner Air of Entitlement (138p from 122p), who powered up the hill to get up late on, was having only her second start over hurdles and can only be better back over further (out of half-sister to Irish Grand National winner Rogue Angel), while runner-up Sixandahalf (137p from 133p) travelled best for most of the way and looks sure to win good races.

Handicap Hurdles

Pick of the week’s performances in handicap hurdles came from Jimmy du Seuil (152 from 142) who belatedly built on the promise of his second behind Ballyburn in the Turners at last year’s Festival to run away with the Coral Cup on his first outing since last year’s Punchestown Festival. He’ll stay three miles and, still lightly raced, could easily develop into a contender for the top staying hurdles.

Mullins also landed the County Hurdle, for the eighth time, with the mare Kargese (148 from 142) who typically took a strong hold in an unusually ‘small’ field of 16 for the race but proved well treated on her handicap debut given she was a dual Grade 1 winner as a juvenile last season. Stablemate Ethical Diamond (143p from 135) couldn’t have shaped much better in coming from an impossible position to take fourth.

Another smart performance from a mare came in the Martin Pipe where Wodhooh (149 from 137) improved a good deal more to win impressively and take her unbeaten record (awarded race on debut) over hurdles to seven for Gordon Elliott. She’s yet to tackle graded company but looks more than ready for it on this evidence.

Bumper

The Champion Bumper was probably a substandard renewal with the field finishing in a heap and long shots completing the frame but it was very much business as usual for Mullins who won it for the fifth time in the last six years (14 times in all), this time with the unbeaten mare Bambino Fever (115 from 110p) who was seen to good effect under amateur Jody Townend and has plenty of potential for hurdling next season. The placed pair of geldings came out better at the weights, with Heads Up (119 from 105), very much seen to advantage from the front, and Shuttle Diplomacy (117 from 110), doing his best work at the finish, both improving for their smaller Irish yards.

Grade 1 Chases

Like the Champion Hurdle, the Gold Cup was heavy with expectation beforehand, namely that Galopin des Champs (175 from 179) would become just the fifth horse to win the race three times, more than twenty years after the last to do so, Best Mate. But under less testing conditions than last year, the odds-on Galopin des Champs was never travelling or jumping with his usual zest and ran a bit below his best, ultimately finishing six lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin (174+ from 164+), a rival two years younger.

The pair had met in all three of their races in Ireland this season with Galopin des Champs coming out on top each time, but Inothewayurthinkin had been getting closer with each run and, like last season when a heavily-backed winner of the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir, Gavin Cromwell brought him to a peak at the Festival having been supplemented for the Gold Cup. Clearly well served by the return to Cheltenham and the longer distance, Inothewayurthinkin took over from Galopin des Champs going to the final fence and kept on well. Inothewayurthinkin had been shaping more like a Grand National type this season and he looks a very obvious Aintree contender now, thrown in after this improved effort, having been allocated a weight of 11-5. The main issue, however, would be the quick turnaround, given that Aintree is only three weeks away.

Owner J. P. McManus could have another strong Gold Cup contender next season with Fact To File (174 from 171) who matched the Gold Cup winner’s rating with a flawless display in the Ryanair Chase. Fact To File’s Gold Cup ambitions were shelved this season after Galopin des Champs had outstayed him a couple of times over three miles at Leopardstown and Fact To File jumped and travelled superbly over the shorter trip of the Ryanair before pulling nine lengths clear of the Savills fourth Heart Wood (164 from 158) – an ideal type for the Melling at Aintree - and former winners Envoi Allen and Protektorat. Fact To File had both the latest and former Gold Cup winner behind him in the John Durkan at Punchestown earlier in the season and whatever his target in twelve months’ time, he’d make plenty of appeal in the King George before then.

McManus also won the Mares’ Chase, for the fourth year running, with last year’s runner-up Dinoblue who didn’t need to improve on her existing rating of 156. But he was out of luck in the Queen Mother Champion Chase where Jonbon (175 from 177) had to make do with the runner-up spot for the third time at the Festival after a bad mistake at the ninth cost him any remaining chance after not the best of starts. Jonbon is yet to finish out of the first two, therefore, but was fortunate to keep that record here with Quilixios (164 from 162) booked for second when falling at the last, having been headed at that stage by winner Marine Nationale (167 from 161). Things haven’t gone smoothly for Marine Nationale since he won the 2023 Supreme, but he has progressed with each run this season and while this result doesn’t alter Jonbon’s status as the best two-mile chaser around, Marine Nationale is still lightly raced for an eight-year-old and will likely hold good claims of another Grade 1 success at Punchestown if faced with just the pick of the Irish two-milers.

Novice chasers

Serious jumping errors also did for the chances of the odds-on favourites in both the Festival’s Grade 1 novice chases. Last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough (remains 161p) was all the rage for the five-runner Arkle and still looks much the best prospect from the race if his jumping technique can be polished up. He made his worst mistake when all but coming down two out but to his great credit recovered to be beaten less than a length into third behind the strong-finishing Jango Baie (158 from 150) who got up late for an unlikely success, beating the mare Only By Night (150 from 144p) by three quarters of a length. Beaten a short head in the Scilly Isles at Sandown on his previous start, Jango Baie will need a return to further if he’s to better this form.

Last year’s Turners winner Ballyburn (remains 158p) looked the one to beat in an all-Irish field for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase but refused to settle ridden with more restraint on his first try over three miles and failed to recover from a first-circuit blunder which knocked him back to last. He’s worth another chance at the trip allowed to race more prominently. That left victory to go to the outsider of the Mullins quartet, Lecky Watson (156 from 150p), who found the best turn of pace in a falsely-run race to pull four lengths clear of the Elliott pair Stellar Story (remains 153) and Better Days Ahead (153 from 151) who were themselves both Festival winners over hurdles twelve months earlier.

Over an intermediate trip, Thursday’s Golden Miller was downgraded to Grade 2 and run as a limited handicap for the first time, attracting just the type of field that might have been expected. But as one of numerous races that had to be despatched from a standing start, nothing held up remotely threatened as Caldwell Potter (153 from 145) made all the running under Harry Cobden who gave him the perfect ride to showcase his jumping ability. That will continue to be a great asset for a horse who’d been beaten at short odds on his two previous starts but looks tailor made for the Paddy Power Gold Cup back here in the autumn.

Jagwar (150p from 144p) could have contested the same race but instead took on mostly older and more exposed rivals later on the card in the Plate where he continued his rapid progress over fences. Following up his course-and-distance win in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap in January, Jagwar overcame mistakes, including when headed briefly at the last, but was well on top at the finish and looks every inch a graded performer in the making with the Manifesto at Aintree looking an option. At the age of six, he has time on his side and looks one to follow for a while yet.

Another novice to prove too good for more seasoned rivals in a handicap was Myretown (140p from 130p) who landed a gamble from a low weight in the Ultima Handicap Chase. He too impressed with his jumping in front before pulling eleven lengths clear of fellow novice The Changing Man (143 from 142) who was conceding the winner nearly a stone. Myretown will go on improving and it’s easy to see him putting up a similar performance in next month’s Scottish Grand National.

One of his Ayr rivals could well be Haiti Couleurs (142p from 140p) who continued his progress over fences with a fuss-free display up with the pace in another novice contest run as a handicap for the first time, the National Hunt Challenge Cup, which attracted a healthy-sized field of useful staying types.

Continuing the novice theme in handicaps, former Fred Winter winner Jazzy Matty (142 from 132+) (who’d changed hands for considerably less than Caldwell Potter at the same dispersal sale of former owners Andy and Gemma Brown) landed the Grand Annual from a maximum field, showing plenty of improvement with cheekpieces back on to deny the 2024 winner Unexpected Party (148 from 147).

The novice domination didn’t quite extend to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir but even there runner-up Johnnywho (148 from 143+), who’d been running in graded novices, came out best at the weights in going down by a neck to Daily Present (137 from 130), fifth to Inothewayurthinkin in the same race the year before and who came out on top this time by virtue of the better jump at the last.

Cross Country

The highest rating from any handicap at the Festival came from Stumptown (161 from 155) who put up a high-class effort under top weight of 11-10 in the Cross Country Chase. It was the first running of the race on handicap terms since 2015, with Stumptown defying an 8 lb rise for beating many of the same rivals in a similar event in December.

The winner of his last four races, all of them cross-country events, Stumptown found plenty to power clear for a seven-length win over veteran Latenightpass (144 from 141) who has now been placed in all four of his starts over course and distance. Stumptown is another from the Cromwell yard who will look well-in in the Grand National, while stablemate Vanillier (remains 149), who did well to finish third after almost taking the wrong course early on, is another to bear in mind if getting in at Aintree where he was runner-up in 2023.