Royal Ascot Timefigure Preview: Day Two

The second day of Royal Ascot looks slightly less hard than the first in unearthing bets from a timefigure perspective (the remainder of the week looks much more promising, thankfully) and kicks off with the twenty-five runner Queen Mary Stakes. For once, there are no Wesley Ward contenders to muddy the waters but there is still a challenge from America in the shape of Lennilu who is trained by Patrick Biancone and has won both her starts, at Keeneland and Gulfstream, with the latter win, where she was eased notably, coming on grass.

She could be anything, as they say, and probably won’t have to be as good as some previous winners have been looking at the form of the majority of the runners. Aidan O’Brien’s maiden True Love is top on Timeform ratings and her chance looks all the better after Gstaad, who beat her at Navan last time, won the Coventry but she has a bit to find on the clock with once-raced Newmarket winner Spicy Marg narrowly leading the way on that criteria from Yarmouth winner Staya, Naas runner-up (to Norfolk favourite Charles Darwin) Cardiff By The Sea, Marygate runner-up Harry’s Girl and Karl Burke’s Zelaina  who cost a bomb at the breeze-ups and created a tremendous impression in the same Nottingham maiden the trainer had won with subsequent Queen Mary winner Leovanni last year. It’s pretty much ‘take your pick’ but obviously True Love’s claims are very solid.

Shackleton heads the market for the Queen’s Vase, unsurprisingly given his trainer Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last ten renewals of the race. By Camelot, Shackleton was third in the Zetland Stakes last year, one place behind Derby seventh Green Storm, and returned with a fair fourth behind the promoted Thrice in the Gallinule on his reappearance. There’s little between him, progressive handicapper Rahiebb, Dante fourth Devil’s Advocate and the unbeaten Spinning Wheel on time and the extra half a mile could easily unlock further improvement.

French supplementary entry Asmarani is interesting given he was second to subsequent Prix du Lys winner Rafale Design in the Prix Hocquart last time. That slowly run race back in trip wouldn’t have suited him, but he stuck on very well, running the last 200m fastest of all according to the French tracking data, and looks sure to go well.

Classic winners Elmalka and Fallen Angel clash in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes, with the former looking for her first win since last year’s 1000 Guineas where she had Fallen Angel back in eighth place. Neither of her two runs this year suggest she’s quite hit the same heights, and she has her work cut out to reverse Dahlia Stakes form with Cinderella’s Dream who was seventh in that same 1000 but improved tremendously afterwards and ended 2024 with second place in the eleven-furlong Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf. A mile around a bend is a different test for her, however, and I can’t say I’m particularly keen on the make-up of this race with Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel and Running Lion (who won this race last year) both equipped with first-time cheekpieces in a bid to elevate their recent form. Start of Day never got competitive on her reappearance but wasn’t far behind Running Lion and Fallen Angel in last autumn’s Prix de l’Opera.

Just 2lb separates the top four on time in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes with Los Angeles and Ombudsman both on 133 after weights have been adjusted for, See The Fire on 132 and Anmaat on 131. Los Angeles and Anmaat get their figures from the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May, a race that is run over a rarely-used distance, and Anmaat arguably shaped best that day given he was conceding race fitness to Los Angeles and quickened past him at one point before being headed in the last fifty yards. Anmaat had previously shown a crazy turn of foot to get himself out of a seemingly impossible position in the 2024 Champion Stakes here, and the difference in price between him and Los Angeles (7-2 compared to 9-4) looks too big.

However, Ombudsman could hardly have shaped better when four lengths clear of the remainder in the strongly-run Brigadier Gerard on his reappearance, suggesting he’s improved a lot from three to four, while See The Fire bids to emulate Ouija Board and The Fugue by becoming the third female to win the race this century after her deeply impressive twelve-length win in the Middleton at York over a field all of whom ran 10lb or more below their best according to Timeform. French raider Map of Stars is very talented, but he’s always struck me a soft-ground performer.

Whip Cracker is just top on time from Ebt’s Guard in the Royal Hunt Cup, closely followed by a number of horses among whom Sisyphean is arguably the most interesting, but the Kensington Palace looks a more crackable handicap.

A high draw hasn’t proved a handicap since its inception, and the one that interests me at a big price is Thelma’s Angel from Gemma Tutty’s Yorkshire yard.  She might not have shown much on the clock just yet, ostensibly because she’s taken part in three steadily-run races, but her dominant closing sectionals when winning at Ayr last season suggest there is a far bigger engine under the bonnet than her bare form might suggest, and a recent run in a listed contest at Musselburgh, a track that wouldn’t have suited her given she’s a big powerful filly, should have put her spot on for this. Interestingly, Tutty has sent just seven horses down to Ascot, Epsom, Newbury and Sandown in her short career and has won with three of them with only one finishing out of the first four. It looks significant too that she has enlisted the services of Rossa Ryan with whom she teamed up to such good effect last year at this same meeting.

Day two concludes with the Windsor Castle Stakes, which will be the final running in its current guise. Rogue Legend heads the Timeform ratings by a remarkable 15lb after scoring by three and a quarter lengths at Tipperary last time, a second win in succession after going in at Cork, but the concession of a lot of weight to some unfancied newcomers together with the fact he raced closest to the rail that day makes me sceptical he’s quite as good as that run makes him look. Certainly, a time just 12lb faster than Sarahmae who raced on the same part of the track and won the handicap over the same distance on the same card off an official mark of 69 suggests he won’t get this all his own way – indeed, Old Is Gold is just 2lb behind him on the clock, Better And Better 3lb and Kansas 4lb. Utmost Respect, who absolutely flew home at York in May, is interesting from a sectional point of view acknowledging the winning time was poor and the form has already taken a couple of knocks.   

Recommendation

1pt each-way Thelma's Angel in the 17:35 at Ascot (Kensington Palace Stakes) at 25/1