Royal Ascot Timefigure Preview: Day One

Massive fields and unrelenting top-class, highly competitive racing make Royal Ascot a festival unlike any other on the Flat, and with 35 races across five days there are, of course, plenty of chances to win – or lose if things don’t go your way. With that in mind, a little patience might well go a long way this week when this column will attempt to highlight those horses at value prices whose credentials are very solid from a timefigure perspective.

The opening day isn’t the most timefigure friendly, however, that’s for sure. Not only are two of the seven races contested over 14 furlongs or more - races which by and large aren’t decided by previous timefigure excellence given around only one in five contests at such distances are truly run - but they are full of horses better known for their exploits over jumps. There's also the cavalry charge of the King Charles III Stakes which demands a deep knowledge of worldwide sprint form lines at tracks that aren’t covered for timefigure purposes by Timeform.

With an odds-on favourite hard to oppose in the St James’s Palace Stakes and bundles of juveniles open to any amount of improvement in the Coventry Stakes, I’m inclined to start slow and keep most of my powder dry for better opportunities (including one I’m very confident in) later in the week.

That odds-on favourite is, of course, Irish 2000 Guineas winner Field Of Gold whose defeat at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas - in a race sectional upgrades suggest he should have won by a length or so after letting the winner Ruling Court get first run in a steadily-run contest - cost Kieran Shoemark his job as number one rider for training partnership John & Thady Gosden.

Shoemark, who’d partnered Field Of Gold to a three-and-a-half length win in the Craven on his reappearance, would no doubt have won on him, too, at the Curragh, so dominant was he in a much more strongly-run race than he had encountered at Newmarket, but Colin Keane was in the plate there and is again here as Juddmonte’s new retained rider. On weight-adjusted timefigures, Field Of Gold has 8lb in hand of Henri Matisse, who has since taken his form to a new level with his win in the French 2000, 9lb in hand of Ruling Court and even more in hand of both if you throw sectional times into the mix.

On the face of it that might make the widely available 5/6 reasonably attractive, but it’s at the back of my mind, rightly or wrongly, that Keane’s record at Ascot in the last ten years is notably inferior to Shoemark’s and that statistic might be worth bearing in mind as the week goes on.

Focus on the Queen Anne Stakes

Indeed, Shoemark might well be the meeting’s leading rider after the first race, the Queen Anne Stakes, as he has picked up the ride on Dancing Gemini who he first partnered in last year’s Eclipse before riding him again on his reappearance this year in the Doncaster Mile where he routed his field in a career-leading 115 timefigure.

Dancing Gemini has improved on that form since in slightly less well-run races, winning the bet365 Mile at Sandown and then finishing second in the Lockinge where, sent off favourite, he finished ahead of Rosallion and Notable Speech, both of whom take him on again here.

It strikes me that Dancing Gemini might struggle to confirm placings with that pair; not only was he race-fit whereas they were both having their first runs of the season, but they stuck closest to the stand rail which was ignored by the riders on the straight course for the remainder of the afternoon. That strikes me as significant, and I'm also mindful that Notable Speech raced closest of the pair to the rail and made his effort from behind Rosalllion after being dropped in from his draw on the wing, yet even quickened past him briefly at one point before Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini, on what looked the faster strip. went a couple of lengths clear. The 6/1 about Notable Speech appeals much more than the 11/4 available about Rosallion (Lead Artist, under Colin Keane, is 5/1 and Dancing Gemini is 11/2).

Notable Speech won the 2000 Guineas last year, of course, beating Rosallion into second place by a length and a half in a race-leading 120 timefigure, though had the race panned out differently Rosallion would probably have been beaten half a length or so. Rosallion reversed the form in the St James’s Palace, when Notable Speech disappointed, and is undefeated at Ascot having won a listed race over the straight seven furlongs as a two-year-old, but Notable Speech has fared much better with the draw than he did at Newbury and looks overpriced.

Views on the rest of the card

Third in that 2000 Guineas was Haatem and he steps up to a mile and a quarter for the first time in the Wolferton Stakes having finished out of the first three in both his starts this season. The step up in trip looks to be more in hope than design but with 15 rivals in opposition that opinion doesn’t make landing on the winner any easier.

Contrary to what might be expected, a very low number hasn’t been much of a help in recent years, so Sons And Lovers and current favourite Enfjaar, in stalls one and two respectively, have their work cut out. However, this looks a very tight race on the clock with five horses (Ambiente Friendly, Haunted Dream, Torito, Liberty Lane and Enfjaar) all having the same weight-adjusted timefigure and I don’t have a strong opinion.

Irish duo Power Blue (16/1) and Andab (12/1) head the time ratings for the Coventry after finishing second and third respectively last time behind the horse who would have been a strong favourite for this had he not been sidelined, Albert Einstein.

Power Blue looked the stronger stayer of the pair at the Curragh and probably shouldn’t be as big as he is, but he had the rail that day and faces numerous lesser-exposed rivals who could easily make a large jump forward. They are headed, as the market sees it, by Albert Einstein’s stablemate Gstaad, who collateral form suggests is probably the one to beat, and Postmodern, who quickened clear in fine style on his Yarmouth debut but didn’t set the world alight on the clock. At least that criticism can’t be aimed at Gstaad, but other runners such as Rock On Thunder and Coppull have had their form franked, and while Trickey Tel hasn’t he could hardly have raced wider when scoring at Chester last time, much as Rashabar had done prior to winning the Coventry last year.

Runners from France, Australia and Ireland join 19 home-trained hopefuls to make up the King Charles III Stakes. Asfoora (the Australian runner who won this contest last year) along with Regional and Believing, the runner-up and fourth from 12 months ago, are the three best-in runners on time, but also fill the first three places in the betting. Night Raider wouldn’t be too far behind them on his all-weather form but trying to pull off a win like this on turf dropping to five furlongs for the first time would be some feat, and if I was contemplating a placepot he’s the sort I’d be inclined to leave out.

Recommendation

1pt win Notable Speech in the 14:30 Ascot (Queen Anne Stakes) at 6/1