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Princess of Wales’s Stakes Position Map preview: Dive in with Atoll

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Nic Doggett previews the 2018 Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket using Timeform's unique Early Position Maps to pinpoint a 7/1 selection.

In terms of in-running tactics, the Princess of Wales’s Stakes has been very much a case of all or nothing over the last decade.

The last five winners all made the running (EPF of 1), while the four before that were all held up (EPF of 4), with 2018 winner Lucarno another who made every post a winning one.

Princess of Wales epf map 2018 Timeform

Even pace forecast

The pace forecast for this year’s race is just an even one, and it’s Raa Atoll who is most likely to take up an early position at the head of affairs. He progressed again when two and three quarter lengths fourth of 9 to Old Persian in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, despite having the run of the race.

His jockey Frankie Dettori may decide to set a stronger gallop here given the horse’s stout breeding on the distaff side (out of an 11.5f winner, sister to 1½m-1¾m winner Rostropovich and 1¼m-12.5f winner Moon Queen), as well as the fact that the horse kept on well (In-Play Symbol of k) and responded well (In-Play Symbol of r) when winning at Nottingham and Leicester earlier this year.

Though Muntahaa made the running in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester on his penultimate start, he appeared to improve for the return to more patient tactics when two lengths third to Monarchs Glen in a listed race at Royal Ascot last time. The fellow Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned Laraaib may also go forward, as he did when two and a quarter lengths second to Poet’s Word in the Birgadier Gerard at Sandown in May, for all this is his first crack at a mile and a half.

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Under pressure?

At the other end of the field, it’s more established that the grey Algometer – who was third in this race 12 months ago when needing a more truly-run race - will be easy to identify at the rear. He’s recorded an average EPF of 4 on each of his last five starts, including when failing to get competitive in a 1¾m listed race at York last time. A smart performer at his best, he needs something of a renaissance to feature prominently.

Stoute contender

A much more eminent threat is ‘Horse In Focus’ Mirage Dancer, who recorded a good timefigure (118) when finishing third in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2017, and he wasn’t far off that level when not seen to best effect when two and three quarter lengths fifth to Monarchs Glen at Royal Ascot last time.

His rider was seemingly under instruction to move off the rail (was drawn in stall 1) in the straight so as not to get locked in, the irony being that the winner took his spot and rolled on while Mirage Dancer continually worked left, not impeded as such but unable to fully open up; he's still ready for this Group graduation.

Best of the rest

Barsanti won a listed race over this trip at Ascot (by neck from Mirage Dancer) in May and ran about as well as could be expected when fourth in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He’s just short on ability against the real high-flyers, but he will continue to run well in minor pattern company – he looks a major player here.

Duretto (good length third of 8 to Marmelo in listed race at York last time) and Best Solution complete the line-up, with the latter of more interest. He’s recorded an IPS of 2 on four of his last five starts, so should be well positioned here in what looks like being a tactical race. He won a handicap at Meydan in February and ran well faced with a stiff task (40/1) when a creditable five lengths to last year’s Princess of Wales’s Stakes winner Hawkbill in the Dubai Sheema Classic there when last seen in March.

Conclusion

Though he has something to find on ratings, the three-year-old Raa Atoll is the least exposed in the field and looks the type to continue progressing. His jockey Frankie Dettori has plenty of experience on his side and should be aware that there isn’t too much obvious competition for the lead, but even if there is, his mount has plenty of stamina to draw upon, and he could prove hard to pass. Mirage Dancer is the obvious danger, especially if ridden more astutely than last time, as he was when successful at Goodwood back in May; his in-form yard have won this race nine times.

Recommended bet:

Back Raa Atoll to win Thursday’s Princess of Wales’s Stakes at 7/1

 

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WINDSOR 7:20

Monday 16 July
6. AIRSHOW 109
Joey Haynes silk Joey Haynes horse in focus
Rod Millman
4. JUST THAT LORD 106
David Egan silk David Egan
Michael Attwater
7. WILEY POST 106
Nicola Currie silk Nicola Currie
Tony Carroll hot trainer
Go to Full Race

LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

5:25 RIPON

1st Shane Gray silk 2. MR C (IRE) 14/115
2nd Cam Hardie silk sh 8. AIRPLANE (IRE) 7/24.5
3rd Jamie Gormley silk 6. MIDNIGHT WARRIOR 11/112
J: Shane Gray  
T: Ollie Pears  
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT

5:10 AYR

1st Gavin Ashton silk 2. TIMOSHENKO 8/111.72f
2nd Andrew Breslin silk nk 1. CLARAMARA (IRE) 5/16
J: Gavin Ashton (5)  
6 ran. NRs: 4 
FULL RESULT

4:55 RIPON

1st P. J. McDonald silk 7. SNOW WIND (IRE) 10/111.9f
2nd Jim Crowley silk 8 4. QAWAMEES (IRE) 6/42.5
All 7 ran.
FULL RESULT

4:40 AYR

1st David Allan silk 5. RACEMAKER 3/14f
2nd Joe Fanning silk 4. WAR DEPARTMENT (IRE) 13/27.5
3rd George Downing silk nk 3. TESTA ROSSA (IRE) 9/110
J: David Allan  
T: Andrew Crook  
8 ran. NRs: 7 
FULL RESULT

4:20 RIPON

1st Jim Crowley silk 2. MUTADAFFEQ (IRE) 11/82.37f
2nd Jamie Gormley silk ¾ 1. ATKINSON GRIMSHAW (FR) 11/43.75
J: Jim Crowley  
All 5 ran.
FULL RESULT

4:05 AYR

1st Joe Fanning silk 6. VALE OF KENT (IRE) 9/25.5
2nd James Sullivan silk ½ 3. NICHOLAS T 13/27.5
3rd David Allan silk nk 5. BROTHER MCGONAGALL 9/25.5
J: Joe Fanning  
All 8 ran.
FULL RESULT

3:50 RIPON

1st Jack Garritty silk 4. PIPERS NOTE 11/43.75
2nd Jason Hart silk ¾ 3. REPUTATION (IRE) 10/111
T: Ruth Carr  
All 6 ran.
FULL RESULT

3:35 AYR

1st George Downing silk 8. TOMMY G 10/111
2nd James Sullivan silk nk 3. MAGICAL EFFECT (IRE) 3/14f
3rd Paul Hanagan silk 1 2. LUIS VAZ DE TORRES (IRE) 4/15
T: Jim Goldie  
All 8 ran.
FULL RESULT

3:20 RIPON

1st Jamie Gormley silk 1. MIDNIGHT MALIBU (IRE) 6/42.5f
2nd Cam Hardie silk 6. ROSE MARMARA 11/26.5
J: Jamie Gormley (3)  
T: Tim Easterby  
6 ran. NRs: 4 
FULL RESULT
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