Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree: Timeform preview and tip

Four Irish raiders make up half the field in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree (13:45), which was won last year by subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin, but this year’s renewal looks more likely to be kept at home. Heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings is Handstands (169), winner of three of his four starts over hurdles for Ben Pauling last season and with a similar record over fences this term.

A faller on his chasing debut, Handstands has since run up a hat-trick in graded contests with his latest success coming in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown where he made all the running and gamely held off the challenge of future Arkle winner Jango Baie by a short head. Handstands’ other win at Sandown this season in the Esher Novices’ Chase was over three miles so the return to a longer trip here is also in his favour.

Caldwell Potter (167) was beaten a couple of times at short odds following a successful chasing debut for Paul Nicholls at Carlisle, but he impressed with his jumping when making all for a smart performance in the novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham and will be a big threat if getting into the same rhythm again here.

Pick of the Irish runners is Stellar Story (167) for Gordon Elliott following his rallying second to Lecky Watson in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. Last season’s Albert Bartlett winner was a Grade 2 winner over fences at Punchestown in November, and as a strong stayer would appreciate more pace in this contest than he got at Cheltenham.

Dancing City (159+) won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle on this card a year ago and made an excellent start over fences before disappointing in the Brown Advisory where he led until a mistake three out. He still looks to have better claims than Willie Mullins’ other runner Quai de Bourbon (162) who took well to fences initially but unseated four out in the same race last time. This is a step up in trip for Joseph O’Brien’s Jordans (163+) but he’s a likeable type who was a good fifth in the Plate at Cheltenham last time.

Completing the field is Joe Tizzard’s Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase winner The Changing Man (157), who has more on his plate than when runner-up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time, and Polly Gundry’s mare Don’t Rightly Know (168), much improved for going over fences where she’s unbeaten in three starts, including a couple of listed events for mares. This is asking more of her, but her allowance puts her bang there in the ratings.

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings

169 Handstands

168 Don’t Rightly Know

167 Caldwell Potter

167 Stellar Story

163+ Jordans

162 Quai de Bourbon

159+ Dancing City

157 The Changing Man

Timeform analyst’s verdict

HANDSTANDS has created a superb impression over fences and with this race the target since beating subsequent Arkle winner Jango Baie in the Scilly Isles at Sandown, he has plenty to recommend him with the return to 3m also in his favour. There's potentially a fair amount of pace on but Caldwell Potter is a huge threat if getting into the same rhythm as Cheltenham. Stellar Story completes the shortlist.