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Juddmonte International: Timeform preview and free Race Pass

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The Juddmonte International (15:35) at York on Wednesday is available as a free Race Pass, which means logged-in customers can view all our premium comments and ratings.

The withdrawal of Alenquer means only six are set to go to post in the Juddmonte International (15:35) on the opening day of York's Ebor Festival but among them is Timeform's highest-rated horse in training, Baaeed, who is stepping up in trip after dominating the mile division.

Baaeed was unraced as a juvenile but he quickly made up for lost time last year, and less than two months after making a successful debut at Leicester he had three more wins against his name, including one at Group 3 level in Goodwood's Thoroughbred Stakes.

Baaeed then took the step up to Group 1 company in his stride in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp before he claimed the notable scalp of Palace Pier in the QEII Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day. That victory, achieved by a neck after travelling stylishly through the race, earned Baaeed a Timeform master rating of 130, which is the benchmark for a top-class racehorse, and he increased that figure to 134 after scooting three and a quarter lengths clear in the Lockinge on his reappearance.

Baaeed didn't need to match that level to win the Queen Anne and Sussex Stakes, but it's little surprise as few horses in the last decade have recorded such a lofty rating. No miler since Frankel has earned a higher Timeform master rating than 134 (Kingman also achieved that figure), while Battaash and Cracksman (both 136) are the only horses to have exceeded that rating at any trip in the period in question.

The obvious question is whether Baaeed will prove as effective over an extended mile and a quarter but his pedigree certainly offers hope as he is by Derby winner Sea The Stars (who also won this race) and out of a mile and a quarter winner. His full brother Hukum won the Coronation Cup over a mile and half this season and has won over even further.

 

If Baaeed does stay his rivals are up against it as weight-adjusted ratings (adjusted to ten stone) highlight his class edge. Baaeed has a weight-adjusted rating of 140, which is 5 lb clear of last year's winner Mishriff (135) who is the obvious danger and will be the best horse he has faced, with the possible exception of Palace Pier.

Wins over nine furlongs on dirt and a mile and a half on turf show that Mishriff is a versatile sort, but his impressive six-length success in this race last season highlights that the extended mile and a quarter is his optimum trip.

Mishriff has disappointed on two of his three outings this term, including when a distant third in the King George last time, but he ran a cracker on his penultimate start when arguably unlucky not to win the Eclipse after being hampered at a crucial stage.

A head behind Mishriff in third in the Eclipse was Native Trail (131). Native Trail won all four starts as a juvenile last season, including the National Stakes and Dewhurst, but he had to settle for second behind stablemate Coroebus in the 2000 Guineas despite running well and improving his rating by a few pounds.

Native Trail wasn't impressive when gaining Classic honours in the Irish 2000 Guineas but he produced a better performance - on a par with what he had shown in the 2000 Guineas - when third in the Eclipse on his first crack at a mile and a quarter and he should give another good account, for all turning the tables with Mishriff, never mind inflicting a first defeat on Baaeed, may be difficult.

Baaeed's trainer William Haggas has had to withdraw Aleqnuer on account of a dirty scope but he still has Dubai Honour (129) as part of his team.

Dubai Honour progressed well last term and won a pair of Group 2s in France before finishing runner-up in the Champion Stakes. His effort in Meydan in March is easy enough to overlook - he wasn't ideally placed in a race run at a stop-start gallop - but he was a shade below his best on his return from a four-month break over this course and distance last month, going down by a nose to Sir Busker.

That was a career-best effort from Sir Busker (125) on his first start at a mile and a quarter but he'd previously come up short at pattern level and it would be a surprise were he to make a big impact here.

The one Irish raider is the Aidan O'Brien-trained High Definition (130). He was highly regarded when winning both starts as a juvenile in 2020 and he also shaped with promise when third in the Dante on his reappearance over this course and distance last season. However, his career has largely been more miss than hit since then and he underperformed when only sixth in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time.

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:
140 Baaeed
135 Mishriff
131 Native Trail
130 High Definition
129 Dubai Honour
125 Sir Busker

Timeform Analyst Verdict:

Baaeed has been all conquering over 1m and has a pedigree which suggests he should prove at least as effective over this trip so he's strongly fancied to make it a perfect 10-10. Mishriff, so impressive in this 12 months ago, and Native Trail are very closely matched on Eclipse form and can fight it out for the forecast spot.

Race Passes are the ultimate form guide, providing Timeform analysis, Flags and ratings for every runner in every race in Britain and Ireland. Subscribers have access to additional features that add extra levels of insight, including complete performance histories, an extensive form archive and unlimited use of horse, jockey and trainer searches. 

Just log in and click here to view the full card and Timeform analysis for the 15:35 at York on Wednesday. You can subscribe to Race Passes to access every race here.

 

 
 

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