How will City of Troy, Bradsell and Notable Speech fare at the Breeders' Cup?

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

City of Troy will be attempting to succeed in the Breeders’ Cup Classic where Aidan O’Brien’s 17 previous attempts in the race have failed. O’Brien’s very first runner in the race, Giant’s Causeway, went closer than any, going down by just a neck to fellow three-year-old Tiznow at Churchill Downs in 2000. Rated 132 with Timeform, the top-class Giant’s Causeway remains one of the highest-rated challengers O’Brien has sent for the Classic, his wins earlier that year including the Eclipse and Juddmonte International, both of which City of Troy has himself won on his last two starts.

Giant’s Causeway was unfortunate to come up against another tough and top-class rival in Tiznow (133) who, a year later, became the only dual winner of the Classic when denying another top-class European rival, the Juddmonte International and Arc winner Sakhee, by a nose at Belmont. Further back in sixth was Ballydoyle’s main hope that year, Galileo, running well below his top-class turf form (134) which had brought him wins in the Derby, Irish Derby and King George. The lesson here is that top-class turf form in Europe is all very well but counts for little in the Classic unless it can be translated to the dirt. Breeding is an important factor too, and the US-bred Giant’s Causeway, by Storm Cat out of a smart Grade 2 dirt winner who herself ran in the Distaff at the Breeders’ Cup, had much more of a dirt pedigree than Galileo.

With a rating of 130p, City of Troy therefore isn’t the highest-rated colt from Ballydoyle to contest the Classic but the fact that he’s by US triple crown winner Justify is encouraging for his chances of adapting to the different surface. The standard of the Breeders’ Cup Classic varies too from year to year, and it’s worth remembering that O’Brien’s last contender to go close in the race was Declaration of War in a more ordinary renewal at Santa Anita in 2013. He too had won the Juddmonte International that season and was beaten only a nose and a head into third behind Mucho Macho Man, running to a figure of 128.

You only have to look at the last two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic to see how the standard can vary. Two years ago at Keeneland it was won by the outstanding unbeaten colt Flightline whose eight-length win was worth a rating of 136 on bare form alone, whereas the favourite White Abarrio at Santa Anita last year won a substandard renewal in a slow-motion finish running to a rating of just 123 and where the first six were covered by less than four lengths.

The good news for City of Troy is that there is certainly no ‘monster’ like Flightline in this year’s Classic field and, with one exception, the rest of his rivals look pretty much on a par with the modest standard of last year’s field. Indeed, the Japanese pair who were second and fifth last year, Derma Sotogake (118) and Ushba Tesoro (122) are back again, with the latter in better recent form than his compatriot this time. The only one of City of Troy’s rivals within 7 lb of his own rating is Fierceness, the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, who has developed into a high-class three-year-old (127) for Todd Pletcher.

Fierceness was a disappointing favourite in the Kentucky Derby when taken on for the lead and dropping out to finish in rear but had been a wide-margin winner from the front of the Florida Derby before that and gained his latest Grade 1 win ridden more patiently in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga three days after City of Troy won at York. However, Fierceness had a lot less to spare than at Gulfstream, holding on by a head from the filly Thorpedo Anna (odds on for the Distaff earlier on the card) with the Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (123), another Classic contender, back in third.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

First run in 2008, the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint has only once been won by a European-trained horse. That was in 2020 when four-year-old filly Glass Slippers was successful at Keeneland for Kevin Ryan. The winner of that season’s Flying Five (and the previous year’s Prix de l’Abbaye), Glass Slippers won quite a rough race with a smart Timeform rating of 118 indicating a less than vintage renewal.

Two of the subsequent Turf Sprint winners have had to run to higher figures, namely Golden Pal at Del Mar in 2021 (126), when Glass Slippers was only eighth, and Nobals at Santa Anita last year (121). There was another substandard renewal in between at Keeneland in 2022 when the mare Caravel (116) pulled off a shock win from the front in a race that had been billed as a duel between defending champion Golden Pal and high-class British mare Highfield Princess.

On the face of it, the British challenge for this year’s Turf Sprint is a strong one, with Nunthorpe and Flying Five winner Bradsell (124), runner-up in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time, heading the Timeform ratings and looking up to the standard required ‘all things being equal’. Not far behind once weight adjustments are taken into account are last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Big Evs (121), winner of the King George Stakes at Goodwood this year, the Nunthorpe third Starlust (120) and Believing (118) who has a string of placed efforts in the top sprints to her name.

The ratings quoted are their Timeform master ratings, though Believing gets the 3 lb fillies’ allowance while Big Evs and Starlust receive a 2 lb allowance as three-year-olds – Starlust met Bradsell on level weights in the Abbaye in which he was badly hampered to boot.

The ‘all things being equal’ caveat is necessary because things rarely are in sprints and Del Mar’s sharp five furlongs features a turn and a short straight. Bradsell and Big Evs have also copped the two widest stalls in the field of twelve, and while Believing has drawn stall 1 she’s not a front-runner so seems unlikely to make the best of that.  

The local contender who could well give the British sprinters most to do is Cogburn (123). He’s not ideally drawn himself in stall 9, but he has abundant early pace to deal with that. He blitzed his field when winning the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes in June, breaking the track record for Saratoga’s five and a half furlongs, and impressed from the front again when making it three out of three for the year in a Grade 2 over six furlongs at Kentucky Downs last time.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Godolphin have won the last three editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile and have good claims of making it four with 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner Notable Speech who will be much better suited by the firmer conditions at Del Mar than he encountered in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp last time.

Space Blues and Modern Games both ran to 122 when winning their Breeders’ Cup Miles but Master of The Seas won a slightly better edition at Santa Anita last year, being value for more than the nose he beat 1000 Guineas winner Mawj in the same colours after being forced very wide entering the straight, earning a rating of 125. That certainly puts the 126-rated Notable Speech well up to emulating his former stablemates if anywhere near his best.

Notable Speech is rated 4 lb ahead of the main US hope Carl Spackler (122), a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga and Keeneland on his last two starts, but if Notable Speech doesn’t deliver, European fillies Ramatuelle (122) or Porta Fortuna (121) could well be up to the task instead taking their 3 lb allowances into account (which can effectively be added to their ratings).

Porta Fortuna had Ramatuelle back in third when they last met in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, and while Donnacha O’Brien’s filly has since won the Falmouth Stakes and Matron Stakes, Ramatuelle was an impressive winner of the Prix de la Foret last time. Freddie Head used the same Longchamp race to prepare Goldikova for some of her Breeders’ Cup Mile bids and son Christopher has therefore taken a leaf out of his book with Ramatuelle who looked stretched by a mile in Britain this year but should appreciate the emphasis on speed over that trip at Del Mar.

*Race Pass subscribers can find Breeders' Cup cards under the 'Other' tab in the Races section of the website