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Falmouth Stakes Position Map preview: Alpha Centauri in another galaxy

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Nick Seddon previews the 2018 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket using Timeform's unique Early Position Maps.

The Falmouth Stakes has developed a tendency to be a tight and tactical affair in recent years, and should all of the current declarations take their chance, it will be contested by a field of seven for the fifth year running.

Four of the last five winners of this race took up a prominent position in the early stages, with two making all, including last year’s scorer Roly Poly.

Weak pace forecast

Whilst all seven in the field hold either a 2 or a 3 on our Early Position Figures, which means they generally sit in a prominent position, none of them tend to make the running, which means we’re likely to have a weak pace in the early stages.

As such, it is most likely that Nyaleti will make the running, who according to our pace maps has a 50% chance of doing so. Mark Johnston’s three-year-old is thriving on her racing at present, and produced a smart performance to win the German 1000 Guineas on her most recent start. She’s genuine, and will give her running, though she would need more if she is to feature.

Alpha Centauri sets a daunting standard

The absences of Rhododendron, Billesdon Brook, Hydrangea and Happily mean that Alpha Centauri sits a considerable way clear on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for this following her stunning win in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, the form of which any miler in Europe would have struggled to top.

She produced a blistering timefigure that day, and whilst she may not have a strong pace to track this time around, her considerable turn of foot means that she will be very difficult to stop regardless of how the race pans out in the early stages.

The three-year-old challenge

The form of the Coronation Stakes is key here, and two of those who finished behind Alpha Centauri reoppose, including Clemmie, who is likely to pose the biggest threat for an Aidan O’Brien team that has won each of the last two renewals. She was the best of these as a two-year-old, looking a strong Guineas prospect when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes last September. As such, her two runs so far this term have been slightly disappointing, including when failing to quicken two furlongs out in the Coronation Stakes. She has questions to answer at present, though it is hard to ignore the fact that she represents a yard that is more than capable of reviving her, and it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise should she take a step back in the right direction.

Second in the Coronation Stakes was Threading, who confirmed the improvement she had shown when winning a listed contest at York on her previous start in May. She came from off the pace as Ascot, and as such she could rely on stablemate Nyaleti to ensure that there is a fair gallop to aim at. She could well have more to offer yet, though she would need to take a large stride forward if she is to overturn the Ascot form with Alpha Centauri.

The final three-year-old due to take her chance is Altyn Orda, who is a specialist on the Rowley Mile, finishing fifth in the Guineas, but below par at Chantilly last time. She, too, would need a lot more if she is to feature.

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The older fillies have a lot to find

This tends to be the first meaningful clash between the classic fillies and the older generation, but the absences of Rhododendron and Hydrangea mean that the two who do take their chance, Arabian Hope and Opal Tiara, both have a considerable amount to prove conceding weight to their younger rivals.

Conclusion

It’s very difficult to get away from Alpha Centauri, who would have given any miler in Europe a hard time with the form she showed when winning the Coronation Stakes. She’s a prohibitive price, and as such the best option may be Clemmie each-way, who is the clear second best option in the field, and is likely to be shorter than the 7/1 currently on offer.

Recommended bet:

Back Clemmie each-way at 7/1 in Friday’s Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket

 

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SOUTHWELL 14:20

Tuesday 11 December
3. WELD AL EMARAT 100
Nathan Evans silk Nathan Evans horse in focus
Michael Easterby
6. MR MINERALS 99+
Finley Marsh silk Finley Marsh horse in focus
Richard Hughes
8. MAJESTIC MOON (IRE) 98
Shelley Birkett silk Shelley Birkett
Julia Feilden
Go to Full Race

LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

19:00 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Mark Crehan silk 6. BERLUSCA (IRE) 6/17
2nd George Bass silk 1 3. RUBENSIAN 3/14
J: Mark Crehan (3)  
All 6 ran.
FULL RESULT

18:30 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Martin Harley silk 6. AIRCRAFT CARRIER (IRE) 5/23.5
2nd Stevie Donohoe silk 7 1. WESTERN DUKE (IRE) 5/16
3rd Luke Catton silk 3. PADDY A (IRE) 16/117
T: John Ryan  
All 9 ran.
FULL RESULT

18:00 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Lewis Edmunds silk 7. YOU'RE COOL 14/115
2nd Franny Norton silk ¾ 2. FOXY FOREVER (IRE) 5/16
3rd Hollie Doyle silk hd 9. BELLEVARDE (IRE) 8/19
T: John Balding  
8 ran. NRs: 6 
FULL RESULT

17:30 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Rob Hornby silk 5. ENGROSSED (IRE) 16/117
2nd Jack Mitchell silk nk 9. REGAL BANNER 5/23.5
3rd David Probert silk 4. CLERISY 11/102.1f
J: Rob Hornby  
T: Martyn Meade  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

17:00 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Robert Havlin silk 10. SHE'S GOT YOU 4/71.57f
2nd Martin Harley silk 7 9. REGAL AMBITION 16/117
3rd Sean Levey silk nk 4. FORTY FOUR SUNSETS (FR) 12/113
T: John Gosden  
All 11 ran.
FULL RESULT

16:30 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Luke Morris silk 2. UNFORGIVING MINUTE 11/82.37f
2nd David Probert silk 1 7. SECONDO (FR) 12/113
3rd Stevie Donohoe silk ½ 4. MISTY BIRNAM (SAF) 17/29.5
J: Luke Morris  
T: Paul D'Arcy  
9 ran. NRs: 9 
FULL RESULT

16:00 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Robert Winston silk 2. INVOLVED 9/25.5
2nd Martin Harley silk 6. KYNANCE (IRE) 4/111.36f
5 ran. NRs: 3 
FULL RESULT

15:30 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Paula Muir silk 3. MOSSY'S LODGE 4/15f
2nd Phil Dennis silk 1 1. CHAMPAGNE RULES 7/18
3rd Gabriele Malune silk hd 12. FINAL ATTACK (IRE) 5/16
J: Paula Muir (5)  
All 13 ran.
FULL RESULT

15:15 MUSSELBURGH

1st Craig Nichol silk 3. ATTENTION PLEASE (IRE) 9/25.5
2nd Blair Campbell silk hd 2. ELMONO (FR) 5/23.5
J: Craig Nichol  
T: Rose Dobbin  
All 5 ran.
FULL RESULT
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