Cheltenham Festival Timefigure Preview: Day two

The second day of Cheltenham kicks off with the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, better known in recent years as the Ballymore. The mid-distance championship race for novice hurdlers has been won by an Irish-trained runner ten times since 2014 yet despite that powerful statistic three of the top five in the betting at the time of writing are trained in Britain, headed by The New Lion, who was snapped up by J. P McManus after winning the Challow Hurdle at Newbury in December.

Despite its Grade 1 status, the Challow hasn’t proved to be an accurate pointer to Cheltenham novice hurdle success in recent years, though some of those winners have later made a name for themselves over fences, and there must have been something in his Challow performance that his prominent owner liked and the strength for him in the market in recent days suggest he could be the one to break the Challow hoodoo.

All that said, his claims on the clock, which is the sole remit of this column after all, are not strong with a 121 timefigure the best he can offer and much the same can be said about another high-profile British entry Potters Charm, who posted a 131 when winning the Grade 1 Formby Novice at fog-bound Aintree in December, but was then turned over, with his trainer later admitting it was a mistake to run him, thinking the race would be a penalty kick, when behind the re-opposing Sixmilebridge in a steadily-run Grade 2 here last time.

Despite that defeat, my appreciation for Potters Charm actually went up that day given he was set far too much to do and his rider bizarrely opted for the most scenic route possible, but, however you interpret it both he and The New Lion have plenty to find with market leaders Final Demand and The Yellow Clay.

Final Demand heads the time ratings having posted a 148 when winning the Grade 1 Golden Cygnet over an extended two and three quarter miles at the Dublin Racing Festival, a race for which he started a very short-priced favourite after an easy win at Limerick, but The Yellow Clay isn’t far behind on 144 after landing the usually significant Lawlor’s Of Naas at the beginning of January.

Both beat the same rival Wingmen in their respective races, Final Demand by 12 lengths and The Yellow Clay by 11, and in theory there shouldn’t be much between them. The Yellow Clay looks to me a good place option without perhaps convincing as the likely winner.

The following Brown Advisory is a fascinating contest, pitching together as it does three horses who scored over hurdles at the 2024 Festival (Ballyburn, Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead) as well as three horses who finished behind a couple of them, Dancing City and Lecky Watson, who finished third and fifth, respectively, behind Stellar Story in the Albert Bartlett and Quai De Bourbon, who finished third behind Better Days Ahead at level weights in the Martin Pipe.

The only one not reopposed by any who finished behind him at Cheltenham last year, then, is Ballyburn who won the Gallaghers by thirteen lengths in a 157 timefigure, significantly higher than both Better Days Ahead (136) and Stellar Story (119) recorded in their respective races, and he has almost reached that level over fences despite his 154 timefigure coming over an inadequate two miles when never able to get to grips with Sir Gino at Kempton over Christmas.

He’s still to try three miles but was starting to go away from Croke Park (for whom the trip might have been inadequate) at the Dublin Racing Festival and the longer distance ought not to be beyond him. Second best on time over fences on 145 is Better Days Ahead, who ran that figure when just touched off by Croke Park in the fog over three miles at Leopardstown on Boxing Day but really ought to have been beaten since by Stellar Story at the Dublin Racing Festival when the latter was set too much to do in a steadily-run race, while third best is Dancing City (138) who is a safe if unexciting conveyance and might find things tough against deeper rivals than he has come up against in his two novice chases so far.

Allowed free rein I’d say Stellar Story looks the value at 12-1 but he’s still to contest a race run at a very strong pace; the suspicion is he’ll post something in the 150s himself given the chance but with no top time performance to his name he’s outside the scope of this column.

There’s a good deal of quality in the Coral Cup with top weight Maxxum having won the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle last time and both Sandor Clegane and Jimmy Du Seuil, fourth in the Brown Advisory and second in the Gallagher’s last year, among the top of the weights along with Ballyadam, who hasn’t finished worse than fifth in four visits to the Festival and was second in this race last year behind Langer Dan.

Maxxum is partnered by a claiming rider who has been successful on him before in a bid to offset a career-high mark and he can’t be dismissed out of hand with his record in fields of twenty runners or more reading four wins and two other top-four finishes from seven starts. Ballyadam ought to be thereabouts again despite a 4lb higher mark but both Sandor Clegane and Jimmy Du Seuil have questions to answer in terms of current form or attitude.

Top on time by 4lb is Might I courtesy of a Bangor win in November, but the form of that race has been reassessed downwards by Timeform’s handicappers since and a more convincing case can be made for second top Beckett Rock, who is closely tied in with current favourite Bunting having beaten that rival, albeit slightly fortuitously, in a steadily-run five-runner affair at Clonmel in January.

Bunting, in the ownership of Tony Bloom, hasn’t run since or beyond two miles yet, but Beckett Rock put in a much-improved run at Fairyhouse last month trying two and a half miles for the first time and on that Clonmel line of form is overpriced if Bunting is priced up accurately.

Perhaps of more interest, however, from a sectional point of view, is Impose Toi, who goes well fresh and runs here for the first time since winning at Newbury last autumn. A strong traveller, he ran each of the last three furlongs fastest of all at Newbury as he was produced off the pace to score readily in a 135 timefigure, worth enough of an upgrade by my calculations to put him alongside Might I, and he showed a big field around Cheltenham was up his street when winning here in November 2023. The stable is already on the board at this year’s Festival and he makes appeal at 10-1 or so.

Timeform don’t return timefigures for Cross Country races, so onto the Champion Chase where Jonbon has a 9lb clear advantage on time over his nearest rival Energumene, whom he beat in the Clarence House at Ascot in January when the pair returned timefigures of 175 and 166, respectively, and 11lb in hand of next best Captain Guiness who won this race last season in Jonbon’s absence but who even his trainer Henry de Bromhead admitted in a pre-Cheltenham interview isn’t as good this season as he was 12 months ago.

I don’t have any truck with Jonbon’s position at the head of the betting despite his relatively modest record at Cheltenham, but I’m always slightly suspicious of a horse whose form is mostly all tied up with the same horses and I’d question whether Edwardstone, who has met Jonbon numerous times over the past couple of years but who misses this race, is as good these days as he used to be.

Solness, who has 12lb to find with Jonbon on the clock, is an interesting contender and will presumably make the running as he has done successfully at Leopardstown in each of his last two races in the process posting a 160 over Christmas and then 163 at the Dublin Racing Festival. How much those wins were influenced by a very wide course – usually a good tactic in Ireland over the winter – is open to question but he was starting to go away again from the reopposing Marine Nationale at the end of the DRF and will surely be in the mix for a long way. Quixilios, Found A Fifty and Libberty Hunter all look to have 15lb or more to find on figures.

Unsurprisingly, timefigures haven’t proved to be a great predictor for the Champion Bumper, given the slow pace at which many of those races are run – Heads Up is 4lb clear of Dalston lad and Bambino Fever for those interested – leaving the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual as the sole remaining race to tackle.

A tricky affair it is, too, with the best weight-adjusted time ratings achieved by top-weight JPR One and northern challengers Nells Son and Fringill Dike. JPR One’s trainer Joe Tizzard said back in November after his Haldon Gold Cup win he wouldn’t have been against going straight to Cheltenham with his charge given his record fresh, and he looks to have been campaigned with those words in mind having been given one race less than his Festival bid last year when he finished seventh in the Arkle.

An official mark of 156 demands the sort of top-class effort his last two starts in Grade 1 events suggest he might not be capable of, however, and he’s no form to speak of in big-field handicaps anyway. Dancing On My Own, who is now down to a mark just 1lb below his success at Cheltenham in 2023, and last year’s winner Unexpected Party are next on the figures ahead of Western Zephyr who needs to put a horror show at Ascot last time behind him but there’s little in it all to convince me to put forward a selection.