Cheltenham Festival Timefigure Preview: Day three

‘Small but select team’ is a well-worn stable-tour euphemism for a yard usually holding nothing better than a pair of sevens going into a major Festival and for all that synonym has been applied widely, rightly or wrongly, to Paul Nicholls’ Cheltenham challenge in recent years as he has shifted his focus more towards Aintree’s calmer waters, he’s still come up trumps with Stay Away Fay (at 18/1) and Stage Star in 2023 and then Monmiral (at 25/1) in 2024.

Buoyed by a couple of winners on Tuesday, albeit at Sedgefield, Nicholls saddles no fewer than ten runners at Cheltenham on Thursday including apple of his eye Jubilee Alpha in the opening Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

Nicholls will be under no illusions this will be a very tough race to win given twenty-four have been declared which is the biggest since the race was initiated in 2016, and on two of the three occasions twenty or more have gone to post the winners have been 16/1 and 50/1.

Jubilee Alpha is 4lb off top on Timeform performance ratings and 7lb off top on timefigures, though the horse that heads the latter list – which after all, is what this column is interested in – is Bluey who finished behind Jubilee Alpha at Taunton before showing much better form at Market Rasen.

Although Jubilee Alpha has won only a couple of seven-runner races she was second last spring in a big field in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree and has to be counted in the mix alongside her stable-companion Just A Rose who won a point in December 2023 (Timeform 127-rated Country Mile in second, 98-rated Darcy’s Friend in third) before winning on her Rules debut at Taunton over two miles three back in January.

However, Jubilee Alpha faces a very tough opponent in Sixandahalf who is second best on time as things stand, 3lb below Bluey after winning a mares’ maiden easily at Fairyhouse in January. A line through Colcannon, whom she beat at Punchestown last spring, suggests she was one of the best bumper performers of her sex last season, as she might well be over hurdles. Disco Dancer, Aurora Vega and Brendas Asking are others in the top six on time, for all plenty of them have run inefficiently to grasp their full ability.

Handicap analysis

There is a three-way tie on the clock in the reinstituted novice handicap chase, with Springwell Bay, Answer To Kayf and Insurrection (Nicholls) 3lb clear of Moon D’Orange, 4lb clear of Pic Roc and 5lb clear of Lord Of Thunder. All the top three have plenty to recommend them having scored by at least nine lengths last time, while Moon D’Orange was also successful if not by so far on account of a drip in trip while Pic Roc and Lord Of Thunder had the finish of a Newbury novice to themselves.

Answer To Kayf who was fourth in last year’s Martin Pipe off an 8lb lower mark behind a couple who ran in Wednesday’s Golden Miller won easily at Naas last time having earlier run eye-catchingly behind Wednesday’s Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson in a novice chase and would be my preference for all he’s a bit older than most novice chasers. Nurburgring and Firefox have form in classier races but have a bit to find on the clock.

Twenty-four line up for the Pertemps Final, the third race of the afternoon. Irish-trained runners have won seven of the last nine runnings, but British-trained horses have won two of the last three and were dominant before the Irish began their winning spree in 2016.

Nicholls won it last year with Monmiral and saddles this year’s top on time, Henri The Second, who lines up after a win and a runner-up spot at Sandown. However, solid though those efforts were, they were achieved on bad ground quite unlike he’s likely to meet here.

American Sniper, who needs to put a poor run last time behind him, Bugise Seagull, who found the track too sharp at Musselburgh, and One Big Bang and Doddiethegreat (a rare Festival ride for one-time champion Brian Hughes) are next on the ratings with a whole host of others, headed by Irish challenger D Art D Art very close behind.

Current market leaders Jeriko Du Reponet and Will The Wise are well down the ‘clock ratings’, but the former has had only one chance at three miles (in a steadily-run race) while the latter unfortunately gained his win last time out at Naas on a day the official race distances were clearly bogus so preventing the returning of any timefigures, a situation that unfortunately also afflicted Tuesday's Fred Winter scorer Puturhandstogether at Cork back in December. So much for supposedly improved pre-race official data from Ireland.

Focus on the Grade 1s

Had you asked me a couple of weeks ago I’d have been quite happy going along with French raider Il Est Francais in the Ryanair Chase but an increased media focus since then as well as a belated wider awakening he might well get his own way in front has made me more cautious, and the kamikaze ride given stablemate Stencil in the Fred Winter on Tuesday didn’t calm my fears he might end up being encouraged to go too fast down at what might well be a minimum trip for him.

Faster ground than he routinely encounters at muddy Auteuil is certainly in his favour, and a 174 weight-adjusted timefigure is 2lb clear of the rest even if it’s still 4lb shy of Fact To File’s, but he’s probably as short in the market now as he deserves to be.

Fact To File is back at two and a half miles after twice going down to his stable-companion Galopin Des Champs at three miles, good efforts for sure even if it was something of a surprise Grangeclare West managed to beat him last time as well. 2024 winner Protektorat is on 172 and deserves great respect, even if the value of his latest Windsor win when well clear of a below-form Djelo is hard to pin down exactly, while the aforementioned tactically as well as distance-versatile Djelo is on 166 along with 2023 winner Envoi Allen and Charlie Hall fourth Hang In There.

2024 Stayers' Hurdle winner Teahupoo is back to defend his crown and, as in the previous campaign, hasn’t been seen since the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse in December. While he won that race in 2023, he finished second to Lossiemouth in the latest renewal, no disgrace in that after Tuesday’s Mares Hurdle romp for the winner, but this year the ground looks likely to be a fair bit faster than it was last year and perhaps as quick as one pigeonholed as a mudlark would want it.

If everything goes smoothly and the ground is as he likes it, he should win as not only does he have the best form but also holds outstanding claims on the clock, having at least 6lb in hand.

Anyone looking for an alternative on time might lean towards Home By The Lee, who is joint second best behind Teahupoo on 163 along with Bob Olinger, who has a good Cheltenham record but is best at shorter and got turned over by Home By The Lee last time out anyway, and Langer Dan who might well put his miserable seasonal form behind him as he done the last two seasons.

If there’s a potential improver it’s possibly Teahupoo’s stablemate The Wallpark who has 16lb to find on overall timefigures but has some closing sectional times that suggest he could be rated a fair bit closer; Mystical Power would also be in the mix on that criteria on last season’s form but he’s run badly twice this campaign and the mile step up in trip has to be taken on trust.

A fancy in the Kim Muir

A combined forty-four horses go to post for the final two races, the Trustatrader Plate and The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir. This column’s headline trainer Paul Nicholls has clear chances on the clock in the former with top-rated Ginny’s Destiny and third top-rated Il Ridoto but the former has lost his form if on a very handy mark if he rediscovers it, while the latter is handicapped to the hilt.

Conflated, who splits the pair on time, was top class at one stage but seems a light of former days and even Rob James’s 7lb claim might not be enough to swing him into contention. The Timeform-sponsored novice handicap chase on Trials Day has been an outstanding pointer to Festival success in recent years and the claims of both the winner Jagwar and third-placed Masaccio, both of whom are close to the top on the clock, can’t be ignored even if the form of this year's renewal was let down twice on Tuesday.

Rob James also has a ride in the Kim Muir, Music Of Tara, which he won in 2020 with Milan Native and in which he teams up with Gordon Elliott again, and he looks to have good claims of a repeat win given his mount is second on time only behind Nicky Henderson’s recent Ascot sixth Wiseguy.

Gavin Cromwell won this last year with handicap blot Inothewayurthinkin and is well represented too this year with Yeah Man (fourth best on time) who won Haydock’s Grand National Trial last season and might have repeated the feat had he not unseated at the fourteenth in the latest renewal, as well as Mint Boy who looks to have been laid out for this over a variety of trips in novice and maiden chases. Despite that campaign he still emerges sixth best on time with plenty of improvement on the cards up in trip in a race the Irish have dominated in recent years.

Selections

Back Answer To Kayf in the 14:00 Cheltenham at 8/1 or better

Back Mint Boy in the 17:20 at Cheltenham at 8/1 or better